Tropical Weather Season 2026

[tireman4]

National Hurricane Center Warnings Update

[tireman4]

If you all want to watch ( a few of our members are there in person...Katdaddy being one), this is the link to the National Tropical Weather Conference at South Padre. It is live. Philip Klotzbach, who Avery Tomasco used a reference for the El Nino coming up, is speaking now.

https://www.hurricanecenterlive.com/ntwc--livecast.html
https://www.facebook.com/NTWCLive/video ... 3983047259

[tireman4]

Hurricane Forecast 2026

[tireman4]

Eric Berger

ttps://theeyewall.substack.com/p/everything-you-need-to-know-about?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=5399856&post_id=200291133&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=ozfhb&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

[tireman4]

Hurricane Evacuation Zones

[tireman4]

From Jeff on Facebook

6-6-26

A couple of models showing some low end chances of a tropical depression forming late next week in the southern Gulf.

Lots of uncertainty with any development given likely interactions with Mexico and potential eastern Pacific tropical systems.

Will need to see if the signal continues and remains consistent…something to just keep an eye on for now. A good reminder to check forecast every few days this time of year.

[tireman4]

Chris Nunley on Facebook

[Rip76]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northwestern Gulf of America:
A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development is not expected during the next day or so while the
trough remains inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the
northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and
environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the
formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into
Thursday.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern
and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should
prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days
which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and
river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible
along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday. Additional
information on this system can be found in products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[tireman4]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northwestern Gulf of America (AL90):
A broad area of low pressure located inland over south Texas is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The system is forecast to move northeastward along the Texas coast
and could emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America later
today or tonight. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical
storm late today or on Wednesday, especially if the system moves far
enough offshore.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern
and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should
prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days
which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and
river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible
along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required later today. Additional
information on this system can be found in products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[tireman4]

Marine Surface Plot

[tireman4]

Invest 90L Track Guidance

[tireman4]

Special Message from NHC Tue, 16 Jun 2026 14:11:51 +0000

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One (formerly AL90) located over southern Texas, at 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC).

[tireman4]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED FROM
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE....


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 98.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northwestern
Gulf Coast from Sargent, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sargent to Morgan City





Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The disturbance (AL90) that we have been tracking for several days
across the southern Gulf of America into northeastern Mexico has
moved into southern Texas. While the system is producing plentiful
convection, it still lacks a well-defined center. However, most of
the guidance suggest that it will move offshore tonight, and winds
will increase to tropical-storm-force on Wednesday. Thus,
advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone One,
and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the
Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. Regardless of
whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and
life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards
with this system. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, based on
surface and radar data.

The system is moving slowly northeastward this morning. We expect
the low to continue moving in that general direction with some
increase in forward speed due to it encountering faster flow
associated with a flat mid-latitude trough over the eastern United
States. Model guidance hugs the Texas coast but generally keeps
it offshore for about a day on Wednesday before moving back onshore
late Wednesday or early Thursday. The NHC forecast is between the
latest dynamical model consensus and the corrected-model consensus
HCCA.

The upper-level environment is not particularly conducive for much
intensification with a fair bit of shear and close proximity to
land. However, there is enough upper-level support from a jet to
the north to cause large-scale deepening, along with convective
support from warm Gulf waters, so some intensification is
anticipated through Wednesday. This forecast is similar to the
model consensus IVCN. It should be noted that this system will
likely never have a pure tropical appearance on satellite due to the
upper trough and shear, with a highly asymmetric appearance with the
rainfall and winds favoring the eastern semicircle.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is possible
across the Texas coast eastward into central Mississippi through
Thursday. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the
weekend. Widespread small stream and minor river flooding is
expected along the Texas coast into southwest Louisiana, with
isolated areas of significant river flooding possible across the
Texas Coast and Louisiana.

2. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical
storm as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast
through Wednesday. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from
Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana.

3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of
the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 27.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/0000Z 27.4N 97.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 17/1200Z 28.2N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
36H 18/0000Z 29.6N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 31.6N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[tireman4]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING OCCURING OVER PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA FROM POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE....


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 97.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSW OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sargent to Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.1 North, longitude 97.8 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with an
increase in forward speed is anticipated over the next couple of
days. The disturbance should move offshore the Texas coast tonight
or early Wednesday, move roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast
later on Wednesday and move back inland in extreme eastern Texas or
southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and
could become a tropical storm early on Wednesday. Weakening is
anticipated on Thursday after the system moves back on land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around
12 inches through Thursday from the Mid to Upper Texas Coast through
much of Louisiana, central and southern portions of Mississippi and
Alabama, and the far western portion of the Florida Panhandle. This
could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this potential tropical cyclone, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning early Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents

TORNADO: A tornado or two is possible through tonight from the
Upper Texas coast across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[tireman4]

We have Arthur....A
1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak classification indicated enough convective
organization to designate the system as a sheared tropical cyclone.
Within the past hour or two, buoy observations and a ship report
have indicated tropical-storm-force winds occurring within this
convection. Additionally, Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters
investigating the storm found peak 850-mb flight-level winds up to
52 kt, which also suggest this system has reached tropical storm
intensity. Based on these findings, the system is designated as
Tropical Storm Arthur with an intensity of 35 kt.

[tireman4]

ULLETIN
Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DEVELOPS NEAR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 95.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM WSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward to High
Island, Texas.




Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

The low pressure area near the Middle Texas coast has produced
sustained convection well to the east of its center this morning. A
1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak classification indicated enough convective
organization to designate the system as a sheared tropical cyclone.
Within the past hour or two, buoy observations and a ship report
have indicated tropical-storm-force winds occurring within this
convection. Additionally, Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters
investigating the storm found peak 850-mb flight-level winds up to
52 kt, which also suggest this system has reached tropical storm
intensity. Based on these findings, the system is designated as
Tropical Storm Arthur with an intensity of 35 kt.

Arthur is starting to accelerate northeastward (045/8 kt) within
strengthening southwesterly flow associated with a low- to mid-level
trough. There are no significant changes to the track forecast
reasoning, with a faster northeastward motion expected today that
will move the center of the system along or over the Texas coast
today and then farther inland over southeastern Texas and
southwestern Louisiana by tonight. With no major changes to the
track guidance this cycle, the updated NHC forecast is very similar
to the previous one.

Given the unrelenting westerly shear and Arthur's close proximity to
land, it seems unlikely that much additional strengthening will
occur. The tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the eastern
semicircle and mainly occurring over the offshore waters. Arthur
will likely maintain its intensity while it remains over water, and
then weaken by tonight once it moves inland. Global model fields
indicate it will open into a trough soon thereafter, and although a
24-h forecast point is included mainly for continuity purposes,
Arthur should dissipate before that time. There is still a signal in
the global models for low pressure development over the western
Atlantic late this week or this weekend as remnant vorticity from
Arthur emerge off the Southeast U.S. coast. The exact nature of this
low remains unclear, so we will continue to monitor model trends to
evaluate the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding remain the
primary hazard with this system. Based on recent observations, the
Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward along the Upper
Texas coast to High Island.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding
are likely through Friday across southern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida
Panhandle, with possible flooding near the Upper Texas coast.
Ongoing heavy rainfall could prolong the flood threat into the
weekend.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Upper Texas
and Louisiana coasts today from High Island to Morgan City where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of
the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 28.6N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 30.0N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/1200Z 31.9N 91.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart