January 2026

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Cpv17
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davidiowx wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 9:24 pm
tireman4 wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 9:14 pmDavid Paul
Yea he said earlier he thinks the sun will be out before noon Sunday to melt any ice. Could very well be right or wrong.

Hopefully people are more aware of the extreme cold Sunday and Monday night rather than the winter precip potential.
David Paul is a good met, but he’s on the conservative side.
txsnowmaker
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davidiowx wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 9:24 pm
tireman4 wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 9:14 pmDavid Paul
Yea he said earlier he thinks the sun will be out before noon Sunday to melt any ice. Could very well be right or wrong.

Hopefully people are more aware of the extreme cold Sunday and Monday night rather than the winter precip potential.
It’s what I’ve been expecting all along. NWS still only shows 0.05 inches of freezing rain for Metro Houston.
txsnowmaker
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 9:32 pm
davidiowx wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 9:24 pm
tireman4 wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 9:14 pmDavid Paul
Yea he said earlier he thinks the sun will be out before noon Sunday to melt any ice. Could very well be right or wrong.

Hopefully people are more aware of the extreme cold Sunday and Monday night rather than the winter precip potential.
David Paul is a good met, but he’s on the conservative side.
He tells it like it is.
Cpv17
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txsnowmaker wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 9:36 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 9:32 pm
davidiowx wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 9:24 pm

Yea he said earlier he thinks the sun will be out before noon Sunday to melt any ice. Could very well be right or wrong.

Hopefully people are more aware of the extreme cold Sunday and Monday night rather than the winter precip potential.
David Paul is a good met, but he’s on the conservative side.
He tells it like it is.
I’ll go with Herzog over him.
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djmike
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My opinion. I tend to agree with Herzogs post. I believe if this cold is arriving faster and temps are falling as much as 10 degrees than was forecasted, we very well all might see a problematic icing situation all the way to the coast. Icing may begin much sooner with more time with moisture. JMO

Though we are entering the “nowcasting” phase, I have a feeling we will see a few unexpected surprises.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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DoctorMu
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Herzog is solid. I believe he saw the light with Beryl.
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DoctorMu
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We're within 2-3 miles of the front. Winds are bearing ENE. It's moved through Austin.
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jasons2k
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The front is becoming more defined as the low deepens. You can see it now on Fort Hood radar @Cromagnum. The Precip and Velocity loops show the approximate location, but there is some refraction to consider.
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DoctorMu
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CMC prog in on next weekend.
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txsnowmaker
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DoctorMu wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 10:36 pm CMC prog in on next weekend.
Bring it on!
Cromagnum
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 10:34 pm The front is becoming more defined as the low deepens. You can see it now on Fort Hood radar @Cromagnum. The Precip and Velocity loops show the approximate location, but there is some refraction to consider.
The wind profile sure looks funny up by Killeen. The Doppler is showing movement to the northeast, but with red and green banding.

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Ptarmigan
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DoctorMu wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 10:36 pm CMC prog in on next weekend.
If that forecast model was to occur, that would be a major snowfall event.
spadilly
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Getting rain in the Sugar Land area now, and I see that the NWS has really escalated their wording for Sunday in our forecast:
Sunday
Freezing rain likely, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all freezing rain after 9am, then gradually ending. Partly sunny, with a high near 33. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. Little or no sleet accumulation expected.
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DoctorMu
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Ptarmigan wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 10:48 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 10:36 pm CMC prog in on next weekend.
If that forecast model was to occur, that would be a major snowfall event.
GFS not to be outbid, calls and raises to over 3 feet in the Piney Woods.
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Pas_Bon
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DoctorMu wrote: Fri Jan 23, 2026 10:20 pm Herzog is solid. I believe he saw the light with Beryl.
Not only did he, but he was the ONLY broadcast met in the entire HOU metro to lend credence to the problem Beryl posed….including bucking the Space City Weather duo that actually made fun of those seeing a northerly solution. Dude is solid.
Pas_Bon
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Next weekend could prove to be historic - the likes of which none of us Gulf Coast lifers have seen. That includes Jan 2025. Eyes peeled.
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DoctorMu
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NAM a lama ding dong.
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jasons2k
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32 in Jacksonville and Mexia last report (already old) - the freezing line is on the move.
WeatherDuck
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35.3 in Taylor, TX
Nuby33
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Upon waking up this morning... Now NWS has me for .3 to .5 inches of ice and a half inch to an inch of sleet with heavy sleet mentioned in the forecast .. here we go lol.

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