December Weather Discussion. Will We See Rain?

[helloitsb]

Khambrell Marshall on Ch 2 just said on the 6pm news that Dec 9/10 timeframe there will be enough moisture in the atmosphere and the temps will be below freezing that we may get snow. He said he was going on the record with that.

Marshall was just a reporter up until a year or so ago. Not even sure he has his 60 hour green screen certificate from Mississippi State. And Channel 2 doesn't even pay AccuWx for forecast service anymore. Not sure if they even use a forecasting service. Marshall may be rip and reading like I could do off an extended GFS run.

Stick to the degreed mets on KHOU. Just need to get Dr. Norman or Mr. Lopez to start posting here. Or Dr. Frank, I betcha a semi-retired former NHC director would rock as a tagged met on this board.

I was wondering, why are none of the mets from KHOU active on the board?

[sambucol]

Khambrell Marshall on Ch 2 just said on the 6pm news that Dec 9/10 timeframe there will be enough moisture in the atmosphere and the temps will be below freezing that we may get snow. He said he was going on the record with that.

Marshall was just a reporter up until a year or so ago. Not even sure he has his 60 hour green screen certificate from Mississippi State. And Channel 2 doesn't even pay AccuWx for forecast service anymore. Not sure if they even use a forecasting service. Marshall may be rip and reading like I could do off an extended GFS run.

Stick to the degreed mets on KHOU. Just need to get Dr. Norman or Mr. Lopez to start posting here. Or Dr. Frank, I betcha a semi-retired former NHC director would rock as a tagged met on this board.

I read his bio, and he earned his Broadcast Meteorology Certification from Mississippi State University. Is that the certificate you mentioned?

Regardless, that was a bold statement to make on primetime 6pm local news. I hope it comes to pass!

[srainhoutx]

I was wondering, why do none of the mets from KHOU active on the board?

I strongly suspect that the KHOU Weather Team reads the forum regularly. I know Dr. Frank does as well.

[sambucol]

Marshall was just a reporter up until a year or so ago. Not even sure he has his 60 hour green screen certificate from Mississippi State. And Channel 2 doesn't even pay AccuWx for forecast service anymore. Not sure if they even use a forecasting service. Marshall may be rip and reading like I could do off an extended GFS run.

Stick to the degreed mets on KHOU. Just need to get Dr. Norman or Mr. Lopez to start posting here. Or Dr. Frank, I betcha a semi-retired former NHC director would rock as a tagged met on this board.

I read his bio, and he earned his Broadcast Meteorology Certification from Mississippi State University. Is that the certificate you mentioned?

Regardless, that was a bold statement to make on primetime 6pm local news. I hope it comes to pass!

According to his bio, he has always been a weather geek. Probably like many of us. And there are several on this board that can probably forecast the weather better than the pro mets we watch on TV!

[helloitsb]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/iahgfsb.png[/quote]

Thanks for the graphic, I tried to go to the website and it wouldn't load a code for me so thats as far as I got into making my own for the 192-384

[TexasMetBlake]

As somebody who worked with Khambrel, he did earn a certificate at Mississippi State. However, don't be too quick to slam anybody or any station. First, MANY television mets have a certificate. That DOESN'T mean they can't read a model or have a little intuition as to what is going to happen. I'd trust somebody who's lived here 20 years and have seen 'normal' weather patterns versus somebody who just flew in from who knows where to fill a spot. I don't have a meteorology degree either, but I have experience and I am earning a B.S. degree in Geography from Texas A&M. So please be careful with the whole 'just a Miss State degree' thing. There are pro mets who are clueless as to what's going to happen. All in all, it's all a guess and the wx service mets don't have any more clue on the weather than I do.

[srainhoutx]

18z not as promising:

One important Upper Air Feature (H5) was not on the 18Z charts.

12Z



18Z

[sambucol]

As somebody who worked with Khambrel, he did earn a certificate at Mississippi State. However, don't be too quick to slam anybody or any station. First, MANY television mets have a certificate. That DOESN'T mean they can't read a model or have a little intuition as to what is going to happen. I'd trust somebody who's lived here 20 years and have seen 'normal' weather patterns versus somebody who just flew in from who knows where to fill a spot. I don't have a meteorology degree either, but I have experience and I am earning a B.S. degree in Geography from Texas A&M. So please be careful with the whole 'just a Miss State degree' thing. There are pro mets who are clueless as to what's going to happen. All in all, it's all a guess and the wx service mets don't have any more clue on the weather than I do.

Well said.

[Andrew]

18z not as promising:

One important Upper Air Feature (H5) was not on the 18Z charts.

12Z

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_264l.gif

18Z

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_264l.gif

The interesting thing is while the "dip" is not nearly as defined as the 12z the gfs still shows some frozen precip around here. I know it is 260ish hours out but I am defiantly getting excited. I have been watching this setup for a while and if it comes true it will be awesome. I can't wait till tonight's run to see if this encouraging trend continues.

[srainhoutx]

Let me add that the major advantage of our 'local forum' is the in depth discussions and the ability to look 'long range' at patterns and many other weather related topics that a 3 minute weathercast or weather headline cannot offer. We are so fortunate to have the talent among our folks, (members) that makes this board what it is.

[Andrew]

I think my times are a little off (and I am working on fixing it) but here is the 18z temps:

[helloitsb]

When does the GFS update?

[srainhoutx]

The run starts around 9:30 PM. CC check your mail.

[wxman57]

...
Troy Kimmel in AUS did (maybe still does) TV forecasting with an A&M geography degree, not sure if he had an MSU cert or not, don't think he had an actual met degree, and he seemed to be a petty good forecaster. Anyway, maybe could have worded it better, but I'd never (if I were a TV met, and I have a face for radio, and ain't a met to begin with) would never mention something beyond the GFS resolution reduction and beyond the Euro. Something that everyone would love. Like snow.

I went to school at A&M with Troy. Greg Bostwick at KDFM in Beaumont was at A&M at the same time, too. Greg & I worked in the weather station plotting maps for use by the higher-tier weather analysis classes.

Can't recall the last time I used calculus or differential equations to make a forecast. Being able to read a computer model doesn't make one a good forecaster, either. One of my classmates, "Robert", never made a "B" in his life. But, in his words, "I can't forecast my way out of a paper bag". Forecasting is as much an art as a science. A good forecaster recognizes patterns and identifies similar patterns of the past. Models can help make a forecast, but you have to know (remember) when the models will fail, like how badly they perform with shallow Arctic airmasses. Trust the models too much in certain situations and you'll really blow a forecast.

[TexasMetBlake]

Good stuff, Wxman. I am friends with Troy K. along with Bob French and Bob Rose. Are you familiar with the latter?

[Ptarmigan]

I went to school at A&M with Troy. Greg Bostwick at KDFM in Beaumont was at A&M at the same time, too. Greg & I worked in the weather station plotting maps for use by the higher-tier weather analysis classes.

Can't recall the last time I used calculus or differential equations to make a forecast. Being able to read a computer model doesn't make one a good forecaster, either. One of my classmates, "Robert", never made a "B" in his life. But, in his words, "I can't forecast my way out of a paper bag". Forecasting is as much an art as a science. A good forecaster recognizes patterns and identifies similar patterns of the past. Models can help make a forecast, but you have to know (remember) when the models will fail, like how badly they perform with shallow Arctic airmasses. Trust the models too much in certain situations and you'll really blow a forecast.

Well said. Forecast is not an exact science.

[wxman57]

Good stuff, Wxman. I am friends with Troy K. along with Bob French and Bob Rose. Are you familiar with the latter?

Bob Rose was there when I went to school, too.

[helloitsb]

I'm anxious for the 10:00 news to see if any of the other meteorologists say anything about this, guess we will have to wait for the new models to come out also.

[Andrew]

I'm anxious for the 10:00 news to see if any of the other meteorologists say anything about this, guess we will have to wait for the new models to come out also.

Not many forecasters like to talk about these events so far out, but they might briefly mention it.

[wxman57]

I'm anxious for the 10:00 news to see if any of the other meteorologists say anything about this, guess we will have to wait for the new models to come out also.

It's almost a certainty that the GFS is incorrect with its forecast of the pattern 11-12 days out. Forecasting the development of such a small upper-level feature that far out is not really possible. One such run of the GFS that far out is nothing more than a curiosity. I certainly would say such an event is very likely with so little to go on. Now if it's 5-7 days from now and the GFS, Euro and Canadian are forecasting such an event consistently THEN I would take notice. The fact that the same model is forecasting something very different every 6 hours gives me no confidence in the long-range outlook.

That said, the long range signals are for some cold air coming down over the next 2-4 weeks. This is typical of the start of a La Nina winter. Cold at first then warmer in Jan-Feb. Our winter will likely be mostly in December this year.