January 2026

[Brazoriatx979]

The way EWX just issued their Winter Storm Watch, tells me that HGX will likely keep it above I-10

why's that

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The way EWX just issued their Winter Storm Watch, tells me that HGX will likely keep it above I-10

why's that

My guess is they will leave latitude to extend. Right now my initial thoughts of WSW watches in the counties I mentioned will be hoisted. WWAs for the southern counties

[tireman4]

The way EWX just issued their Winter Storm Watch, tells me that HGX will likely keep it above I-10

why's that

My guess is they will leave latitude to extend. Right now my initial thoughts of WSW watches in the counties I mentioned will be hoisted. WWAs for the southern counties

And I think, at this time, that would be the prudent option. It can change as we get closer to the event. It might even be nowcasting.

[Cromagnum]

Extreme cold watch hoisted for my area. Winter storm watch too.

Alert Description
From Jan 24, Sat, 6:00 PM to Jan 26, Mon, 12:00 PM
* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 2 degrees below zero
possible.

* WHERE...All of south central Texas.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 2 degrees
below zero could result in hypothermia or frostbite on exposed
skin if precautions are not taken. Extreme cold will become life
threatening and likely damage unprotected pipes and put livestock
at risk.
Instructions
Dress in layers including a hat, face mask, and gloves if you must
go outside.
Affected Areas
Llano; Burnet; Williamson; Val Verde; Edwards; Real; Kerr; Bandera; Gillespie; Kendall; Blanco; Hays; Travis; Bastrop; Lee; Kinney; Uvalde; Medina; Bexar; Comal; Guadalupe; Caldwell; Fayette; Maverick; Zavala; Frio; Atascosa; Wilson; Karnes; Gonzales; De Witt; Lavaca; Dimmit


Alert Description
From Jan 24, Sat, 12:00 AM to Jan 25, Sun, 12:00 PM
* WHAT...Light to moderate accumulations of mainly ice and sleet are
likely across the region late Friday night through Sunday morning.
In addition, dangerously cold temperatures are expected Saturday
night through Monday morning.

* WHERE...Northern portions of south central Texas.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Roads, especially bridges and overpasses, will likely
become slick and hazardous. Ice accumulation on power lines and
tree limbs may cause power outages. Extreme cold will become life
threatening and likely damage unprotected pipes and put livestock
at risk.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas across the Hill Country could see
wintry precipitation effects as early as Midnight Saturday. Areas
along the I-35 Corridor should expect wintry precipitation as
early as daybreak Saturday. Areas south and east of I-35 should
experience wintry precipitation in the daytime hours Saturday.
Instructions
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Persons should consider delaying all travel. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution. Consider taking a winter
storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains,
booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing.
Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help
you survive in case you become stranded.
Affected Areas
Llano; Burnet; Williamson; Val Verde; Edwards; Real; Kerr; Bandera; Gillespie; Kendall; Blanco; Hays; Travis; Bastrop; Lee; Comal; Caldwell; Fayette

[Cromagnum]

The way EWX just issued their Winter Storm Watch, tells me that HGX will likely keep it above I-10

Hwy 105 shennanigans?

[mcheer23]

They went all counties except the coast. Surprised.

[christinac2016]

And Conroe /MOCO just got a winter storm watch.

[Brazoriatx979]

well i guess i have nothing to worry about now

[tireman4]

Interesting...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

They went all counties except the coast. Surprised.

We will have a longer duration event than the Hill Country

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Double post

[MontgomeryCoWx]

well i guess i have nothing to worry about now

You will. They are leaving it open to expand south. You’ll probably get a Winter Weather Advisory on Friday evening.

[sambucol]

Just got this:
WINTER STORM WATCH
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
118 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos- Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin- Waller-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Southern Liberty- Coastal Harris- Including the cities of Columbus, Coldspring, Winnie, Old River-Winfree, Rosenberg, Bryan, Mont Belvieu, Devers, Stowell, Sealy, Trinity, Huntsville, Navasota, College Station, Shepherd, Cleveland, Weimar, Waller, Baytown, Eagle Lake, Somerville, Conroe, Dayton, Brookshire, Groveton, Anahuac, Mission Bend, The Woodlands, Brenham, Wharton, Crockett, Bellville, Liberty, Madisonville, Livingston, Corrigan, El Campo, Missouri City, Houston, Prairie View, Pecan Grove, Sugar Land, Caldwell, Pasadena, Hempstead, and First Colony 118 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total ice accumulations between one tenth and three tenths of an inch possible across the entire watch area, with the highest accumulations in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley. Slight sleet accumulations will be possible in the northern Piney Woods and Brazos Valley, but the primary concern will be freezing rain.

* WHERE...A portion of southeast Texas.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. Travel could be hazardous.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will change over to freezing rain and sleet in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley as early as early Saturday morning. Elsewhere, rain may change over to freezing rain as early as Saturday afternoon or Saturday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

[Stratton20]

Hoping we get just enough weakening of the warm nose to get more sleet

[Brazoriatx979]

well will see if they add us into the wsw in the coming days lol I feel kinda left out lol


Edit: so I just learned something new.You have to get an 1/8 of an inch of ice to qualify for the winter storm watch.That doesn't mean that you won't get ice where you're at.Just not enough to warrant the winter storm watch.If it goes up , then yes , you will be included.



Lol the more you know

[tireman4]

I am posting this in its entirety so all can read

770
FXUS64 KHGX 212024
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
224 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog may develop tonight into tomorrow morning.

- An Arctic front pushes through Friday night/Saturday, bringing
various winter hazards over the weekend:
- Extended periods of below freezing temperatures along with
hard freezes for parts of the area Saturday night, Sunday
night, and Monday night.
- Low wind chill values, potentially near 0 in northwestern
areas.
- Freezing Rain with hazardous to significant ice accumulations.
- Hazardous marine conditions.

- Residents are encouraged to winterize their home and make plans
to keep themselves and loved ones warm during the work week
prior to the arrival of the Arctic air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Today through Thursday:

Light to moderate rain continues to move eastward across the area,
with a low chance of a thunderstorm if anything can get going behind
the main area of rain. With a front stalled across the area, a more
humid air mass than we have had recently, and weak onshore flow
southeast of the front, guidance is trending more aggressive with
dense fog development tonight. A dense fog advisory may need to be
issued tonight if trends continue. A warm day is expected on
Thursday with very low rain chances, which will be good conditions
to prepare for the incoming Arctic cold outbreak and winter
storm.

Friday through Monday:

Confidence continues to increase in dangerously cold temperatures
and wind chills coming into the area this weekend and into early
next week. Confidence also continues to increase in a significant
icing event for the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley. The southern
extent of the freezing rain along and south of the I-10 corridor
remains more uncertain, but potentially highly impactful. This is
due to the very cold temperatures moving in and the potential for
significant travel impacts with even small amounts of freezing
rain especially on elevated surface/highway overpasses. Areas that
do not drop below freezing until precipitation ends can still see
impacts as any moisture remaining moisture on roadways/bridges
may re-freeze. Winds will also increase the impacts of freezing
precipitation.

While the wintry precipitation has certainly attracted a lot of
attention, we want to make sure that the dangerously cold weather
coming in does not get overshadowed. Hard freeze conditions will be
possible both Saturday night and Sunday night with lows in the teens
and lower 20s, lowest on Sunday night into Monday morning.
Additionally, gusty northerly winds will be present, dropping wind
chills into the single digits and teens both nights, again lowest
Sunday night into Monday morning. We have issued an areawide Extreme
Cold Watch to account for both the wind chill and hard freeze
threats, rather than issuing a separate Freeze Watch/Warning for
a hard freeze. Similarly cold temperatures will continue Monday
night into Tuesday morning. However, with lower winds, apparent
temperatures may be more in the range of a Cold Weather Advisory
than an Extreme Cold Warning, so we will not continue the watch
that far out at this time. Also of note, many areas north of I-10
may not get above freezing all day on Sunday.

A notable change from earlier guidance regarding the synoptic
pattern is that guidance has trended more progressive with the
cutoff low off the coast of the Baja, now showing it phasing more
with the northern stream trough and becoming a more progressive
shortwave. It appears this may be one of the reasons for the large
model spread in temperatures for the area Saturday into early
Sunday, as the increased forcing may allow a bit more of a surface
trough or wave of low pressure to develop along the Gulf Coast.
This increased onshore flow and coastal front would offer a bit
more resistance to the strong shallow Arctic air mass moving in,
though it will eventually give in. Until we get closer in time to
see which will win out for areas along and south of I-10, we will
continue to lean heavily into probabilistic messaging and urge
everyone to continue to check the latest forecasts. Will note that
there is even a lower probability alternative scenario where a
small warm sector develops right along the coast with a potential
for severe storms Saturday, but this probability is too low for
any official messaging at this time.

The latest probabilistic WSSI from WPC continues to hit hard on the
freezing rain impacts for the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. NBM
continues to show medium chances of significant ice accumulations
exceeding 0.25" in northern portions of the areas, indicating an
increasing concern for power outages, with impacts compounded by the
very cold air moving in behind this system and gusty northerly
winds. Rain may change over to freezing rain as early as early
Saturday morning in areas such as Houston County, with the surface
freezing line beginning to progress southward through the day.
Some minor sleet accumulations may also occur in our far northern
counties. For areas along and south of I- 10, we will have to
watch the surface freezing line closely Saturday night to Sunday
morning, relative to when waves of precipitation move through.
20-30% NBM probabilities of 1/8" of ice (winter storm warning
criteria) extend down into the I-10 corridor, along with 30- 60%
probabilities of 0.01". 20% probabilities of 0.01" of ice extend
down to the coast. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for areas
generally along and north of I-10, and will monitor for any need
to expand it southward. As we get closer, upgrades to a Winter
Storm Warning (or an Ice Storm Warning further north) are possible
as well as Winter Weather Advisories, which may extend further
south of the current watch area. Remember that even going from a
Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory is an upgrade, not
a downgrade, as it indicates increasing confidence in impacts.
This is especially the case when it comes to freezing rain, since
even small amounts can have a big impact.

JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 542 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

MVFR/IFR CIGs moving in with the rain band that is currently
draped from SW to NE across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods.
Expect this band to continue a SE progression through the day. At
the same time, have some showers moving north from South Texas
this morning, impacting areas along and south of I-10. These are
producing mostly drizzle compared to the showers north of the
metro. Timing of arrival of northern band of showers looks to be a
bit quicker than originally forecast. Currently looking at IAH
experiencing SHRA as early as 13Z. Expect SHRA to continue through
the duration of the day, and tapering off shortly after sunset.
CIGs and VSBYs anticipated to deteriorate overnight through
Thursday morning to MVFR/IFR levels. Fog may become dense at
time, and may reach LIFR levels.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

A coastal trough will lead to rain continuing through tonight,
with low chances continuing into Thursday afternoon. An isolated
storm or two cannot be ruled out, especially this afternoon.
Water temperatures in the bays and along the immediate coast range
from the upper 50s to low 60s. Southeasterly winds will gradually
increase dew points into the low to mid 60s by this afternoon.
This leads to the potential for sea fog tonight and Thursday
night. This fog may be locally dense at times, especially
tonight into Thursday morning.

A strong Arctic cold front pushes offshore by Saturday with
strong northeasterly to northerly winds prevailing in its wake
through the weekend. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for
this period with sustained winds in the 25-30 kt range and
elevated seas in the 8-11 ft range. Gale force gusts cannot be
ruled out. Widespread precipitation is expected late Friday into
Sunday behind the front. While the precipitation type along the
immediate coast is anticipated to be liquid, there are some areas
along the northern and central portions of the bays that have the
potential for freezing rain Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Additionally, we`ll monitor for the potential for another round of
abnormally low water levels in the bays during low tide cycles,
so be sure to stay up to date with the latest forecasts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 54 71 59 70 / 20 0 10 60
Houston (IAH) 60 74 61 73 / 30 10 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 60 67 60 67 / 30 10 10 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday
afternoon for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-
300-313.

Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning
for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-
313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDavis
AVIATION...Bailey
MARINE...JDavis

[sambucol]

EXTREME COLD WATCH

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
130 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos- Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin- Waller-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson- Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands-Brazoria Islands- Galveston Island-Bolivar Peninsula- Including the cities of Columbus, Coldspring, Winnie, Old River-Winfree, Rosenberg, Bryan, Mont Belvieu, Pearland, Devers, Stowell, Sealy, Trinity, Freeport, Surfside Beach, Alvin, Huntsville, Galveston, Navasota, College Station, Shepherd, Bay City, Cleveland, Weimar, Waller, Ganado, Baytown, Eagle Lake, Somerville, Conroe, Dayton, Brookshire, Dickinson, Groveton, Anahuac, La Marque, Mission Bend, Edna, The Woodlands, Brenham, Wharton, Angleton, Crockett, Bellville, League City, Liberty, Madisonville, Livingston, Corrigan, El Campo, Lake Jackson, Missouri City, Houston, Friendswood, Palacios, Prairie View, Texas City, Pecan Grove, Clute, Sugar Land, Caldwell, Pasadena, Hempstead, and First Colony 130 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

...EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 5 to 15 possible, with the coldest values Sunday night into Monday morning. A hard freeze is also possible Saturday night and Sunday night with lows in the 10s to lower 20s. Some areas north of I-10 may remain below freezing all day on Sunday.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Monday morning. Cold conditions may continue into Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Frostbite and hypothermia will occur if unprotected skin is exposed to these temperatures. An extended period of freezing temperatures could cause ruptured water pipes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Dress in layers including a hat, face mask, and gloves if you must go outside.

To prevent water pipes from freezing, wrap or drain them.

Keep pets indoors as much as possible.

Make sure outdoor animals have a warm, dry shelter, food, and unfrozen water.

Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and neighbors. Ensure portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use generators or grills inside.

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates.

[jasons2k]

I think the team over at SCW, God bless ‘em, but they’re gonna be eating a lot of crow come Saturday afternoon.

It would be funny if CenterPoint wasn’t relying on them so much. It’s honestly a bit concerning.

[sambucol]

I think the team over at SCW, God bless ‘em, but they’re gonna be eating a lot of crow come Saturday afternoon.

It would be funny if CenterPoint wasn’t relying on them so much. It’s honestly a bit concerning.

Who are SCW?

[tireman4]

I think the team over at SCW, God bless ‘em, but they’re gonna be eating a lot of crow come Saturday afternoon.

It would be funny if CenterPoint wasn’t relying on them so much. It’s honestly a bit concerning.

I guess I need to get over there and see what Eric and Matt are doing. Humm. I am assuming they are taking the conservative route.