January 2026

[Brazoriatx979]

People claiming the system is “moving north” aren’t making any sense. Stop looking at colors on a map and understand the pattern. My guess is we will see some wild wild precip runs for us in the next 24-48 hours and it will bounce from rain to mix to all freezing rain.

This is a tale as old as time. The temps will be too warm on the runs today. People will make absolute statements like they know something, and it will come from a place of emotion and guess.

This system is far more likely to be suppressed and colder than what’s modeled at the moment. The upper air pattern is a unique one, that unlike our other near misses, almost always delivers sub freezing air into the gulf.

We already see the variables in place today on the NA/CONUS map. It’s not like we are waiting for something to materialize in the Arctic or the Pacific.

I was not sold on this cold snap and potential storm last week. I am 100% sold now that I see what I see.

Just curious as to why you think the temperatures will be too warm today.

The modeled temps for this weekend. They are too warm at the surface given a) the timing of when the front arrives and b) the strength of the HP.

With the PV lobe sitting where it is, you very rarely get an amped system. This system SHOULD be suppressed and spread out across the south and mid south. This will limit much warm air creeping in from the gulf.

Long story short, based on what I see, I think everyone should plan to see freezing rain at a minimum and possible power outages and tree damage where the heavier precip sets up. If it doesn’t pan out, you were prepared.


Just go look at what wxman57 is saying. He hasn’t poo’d on this all day. He recognizes the pattern and expects Houston to see freezing rain and some sleet.

I understand what you're saying! Thanks lot.I appreciate it.I'm going to start wrapping pipes and stuff.Even though i'm a little bit closer to the coast , but not the directly on the coast , I'll prepare even if we don't get it here in angleton

[MontgomeryCoWx]

To those worrying about precip, we haven’t had a STJ like this in quite some time.

As our favorite heat miser said earlier today, there’s a 100% chance of something falling out of the sky this weekend. The question is how much and what type depending on your location.

[Stormlover2020]

Gfs caves right now to euro

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Gfs caves right now to euro

No, no it didn’t. They look nothing alike.

The GFS Operational doesn’t even look like it’s ensembles.

Euro doesn’t cut off low and keeps a steady stream of moisture.

GFS cuts off the low and even its upper air pattern makes zero sense when you look at its surface output.

[christinac2016]

Think it would be safe for me to get to a treadmill Saturday morning at a gym?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Think it would be safe for me to get to a treadmill Saturday morning at a gym?

No way to say at this moment. My guess is the front arrives late Friday but models show Saturday morning right now.

Globals are typically slow with the front and a bit too warm until we get within 72 hours. Ready to see the Mesos as they get in better range.

[sambucol]

Just curious as to why you think the temperatures will be too warm today.

The modeled temps for this weekend. They are too warm at the surface given a) the timing of when the front arrives and b) the strength of the HP.

With the PV lobe sitting where it is, you very rarely get an amped system. This system SHOULD be suppressed and spread out across the south and mid south. This will limit much warm air creeping in from the gulf.

Long story short, based on what I see, I think everyone should plan to see freezing rain at a minimum and possible power outages and tree damage where the heavier precip sets up. If it doesn’t pan out, you were prepared.


Just go look at what wxman57 is saying. He hasn’t poo’d on this all day. He recognizes the pattern and expects Houston to see freezing rain and some sleet.

I understand what you're saying! Thanks lot.I appreciate it.I'm going to start wrapping pipes and stuff.Even though i'm a little bit closer to the coast , but not the directly on the coast , I'll prepare even if we don't get it here in angleton

I started doing that today.

[Stratton20]

GFS 18z had a 1050 MB high dropping out of canada, the NAM goes out 84 hours and at the same time as the GFS has a 1057 mb high, and its one of the better short range models in terms of seeing the cold, that would definitely lead to a much colder outlook than the GFS, and it wouldn’t surprise me if its too warm by 5-6 degrees

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I think Cavlin’s graphic is probably realistic in terms of how I think this shaping up.

https://x.com/pcavlin/status/2013308860 ... 0&ref_url=

[tireman4]

Jeff Lindner

[biggerbyte]

There is enough indication now that folks can start paying attention. This forum will light up very soon. Come Thursday night if things have not changed it will be time to act on it. Prepare for pets, plants, and people. Pets get a false sense of impact when it is raining. They are soaking wet which freezes on their body. I don't like what we are seeing. I'd rather have snow.

[DoctorMu]

To those worrying about precip, we haven’t had a STJ like this in quite some time.

As our favorite heat miser said earlier today, there’s a 100% chance of something falling out of the sky this weekend. The question is how much and what type depending on your location.

Unusual during La Niña. Cold is there and will overperform. Moisture will be there. It's all about the warm nose and potential cool down of the column once it begins precipitating in this multiple day event.

57 is warming up the jet and packing.

[Brazoriatx979]

Euro shifted a little south...

[DoctorMu]

There is enough indication now that folks can start paying attention. This forum will light up very soon. Come Thursday night if things have not changed it will be time to act on it. Prepare for pets, plants, and people. Pets get a false sense of impact when it is raining. They are soaking wet which freezes on their body. I don't like what we are seeing. I'd rather have snow.

Already set up in CLL. We got through Feb. 21 at 5°F and rolling blackouts. Gas fireplace and stove with space heaters can do wonders.

Honestly, a significant ice storm happens 1-2 times every year back in NC. Someone on storm2K said it would be worse then a hurricane. Ummmmmmmmmmm....no. Be prepared and stay home when it happens, which is fortunately over a weekend.

[DoctorMu]

Euro shifted a little south...

So, it begins.

[Brazoriatx979]

Knocking on our door step now

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Knocking on our door step now

It’s there for me. I’m right at the bottom of the .32 in CoCo

[snowman65]

This is one storm Ide like to see miss the golden triangle completely... wide right!!

[Brazoriatx979]

Won't happen but its nice to look at lol

[DoctorMu]

I'm going with 60+ hours in a row at freezing or below in CLL around the weekend. Godknows what will fall in the mix, but wintry stuff ahead.