January 2026

[Stratton20]

Arctic air probably arrives friday night as it tends to travel faster south than predicted, precipitation should start early saturday and continue through early monday

[Brazoriatx979]

I believe everybody is going to get a little ice or sleet. Maybe not Galveston but maybe. Stranger things have happened

[don]

It’s looking more and more like we may get a historical winter storm.

[Stormlover2020]

It’s looking more and more like we may get a historical winter storm.

Up north but southeast Texas looks ok

[Brazoriatx979]

It’s looking more and more like we may get a historical winter storm.

more for you(yankee) lol jk..but hopefully we can all cash in on a little something

[DoctorMu]

Soundings of GFS look like

rain -> freezing rain --> sleet -> snow

Gotta get rid of the warm nose!

[DoctorMu]

Arctic air probably arrives friday night as it tends to travel faster south than predicted, precipitation should start early saturday and continue through early monday

The cold air will overperform. Is it deep enough? Can we column cool away the warm nose?

Sleet down to NW Harris Co. Freezing rain, sleet, snow in CLL. Don gets 18 inches of snow.

[Brazoriatx979]

we ALWAYS have a warm nose down here its nothing new. it takes a while to overcome but it is possible

[Stratton20]

Stormlover2020 way too early to say that, global models always underestimate the cold air, we will have plenty of moisture to work with, its extremely close, like razor sharp knife close

[Stormlover2020]

And as we get closer, it will keep shifting north. Till the euro budges then no game on

[Brazoriatx979]

And as we get closer, it will keep shifting north. Till the euro budges then no game on

I'm glad you're a pro met and are dead set on this solution

[DoctorMu]

Eric Webb
@webberweather
Imho, Jan 5-8, 1988 is a good analog to the potential winter storm later this week over the Southern US

This time however, we'll probably have more cold air & more moisture/warm advection aloft to work w/

This setup really looks like an "upped ante" version of Jan 1988. Insane.

[Stormlover2020]

And in 1988 se tx didn’t get anything

[Stratton20]

Stormlover2020 lol ensembles, and other models say otherwise, the euro, like the GFS is very likely too warm with surface temperatures, i expect some freezing rain to make it to se texas, how much is to be determined

[Brazoriatx979]

by Friday we should have a pretty damn good idea of what will happen. Then its now casting time {look at up at the sky and see what's falling}

[Cpv17]

It was a frosty 31 here with a forecast low of 33.

26°F low IMFY. Beautiful 60°F clear skies. A touch of a breeze.

Just an hour south of you it’s 70°F. That’s crazy.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

People claiming the system is “moving north” aren’t making any sense. Stop looking at colors on a map and understand the pattern. My guess is we will see some wild wild precip runs for us in the next 24-48 hours and it will bounce from rain to mix to all freezing rain.

This is a tale as old as time. The temps will be too warm on the runs today. People will make absolute statements like they know something, and it will come from a place of emotion and guess.

This system is far more likely to be suppressed and colder than what’s modeled at the moment. The upper air pattern is a unique one, that unlike our other near misses, almost always delivers sub freezing air into the gulf.

We already see the variables in place today on the NA/CONUS map. It’s not like we are waiting for something to materialize in the Arctic or the Pacific.

I was not sold on this cold snap and potential storm last week. I am 100% sold now that I see what I see.

[Brazoriatx979]

People claiming the system is “moving north” aren’t making any sense. Stop looking at colors on a map and understand the pattern. My guess is we will see some wild wild precip runs for us in the next 24-48 hours and it will bounce from rain to mix to all freezing rain.

This is a tale as old as time. The temps will be too warm on the runs today. People will make absolute statements like they know something, and it will come from a place of emotion and guess.

This system is far more likely to be suppressed and colder than what’s modeled at the moment. The upper air pattern is a unique one, that unlike our other near misses, almost always delivers sub freezing air into the gulf.

We already see the variables in place today on the NA/CONUS map. It’s not like we are waiting for something to materialize in the Arctic or the Pacific.

I was not sold on this cold snap and potential storm last week. I am 100% sold now that I see what I see.

Just curious as to why you think the temperatures will be too warm today.

[tireman4]

Hummm

[MontgomeryCoWx]

People claiming the system is “moving north” aren’t making any sense. Stop looking at colors on a map and understand the pattern. My guess is we will see some wild wild precip runs for us in the next 24-48 hours and it will bounce from rain to mix to all freezing rain.

This is a tale as old as time. The temps will be too warm on the runs today. People will make absolute statements like they know something, and it will come from a place of emotion and guess.

This system is far more likely to be suppressed and colder than what’s modeled at the moment. The upper air pattern is a unique one, that unlike our other near misses, almost always delivers sub freezing air into the gulf.

We already see the variables in place today on the NA/CONUS map. It’s not like we are waiting for something to materialize in the Arctic or the Pacific.

I was not sold on this cold snap and potential storm last week. I am 100% sold now that I see what I see.

Just curious as to why you think the temperatures will be too warm today.

The modeled temps for this weekend. They are too warm at the surface given a) the timing of when the front arrives and b) the strength of the HP.

With the PV lobe sitting where it is, you very rarely get an amped system. This system SHOULD be suppressed and spread out across the south and mid south. This will limit much warm air creeping in from the gulf.

Long story short, based on what I see, I think everyone should plan to see freezing rain at a minimum and possible power outages and tree damage where the heavier precip sets up. If it doesn’t pan out, you were prepared.


Just go look at what wxman57 is saying. He hasn’t poo’d on this all day. He recognizes the pattern and expects Houston to see freezing rain and some sleet.