November 2025

[tireman4]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[tireman4]

Outlook

[Cpv17]

Models are more aggressive today for cold late month into early December. Extreme cold could be on the table.

[Brazoriatx979]

It can come the day after thanksgiving. My *** will be outside smoking a turkey. Don't want it that damn cold at least not yet while still outside

[Stratton20]

Holy moly GEPS! That setup screams severe arctic outbreak , looks awfully lot like the AIFS….. Im just sayin

[DoctorMu]

All I see for the next week is weather we should have had in late September and October. Summer until Friday, then Clouds, rain, warm...

[DoctorMu]

Euro 12z AIFS has modified the FROPA vs. 06z. Canadian is coming in strong. We're talking about 10 days from today. Possible with a hinky PV. We'll see.



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_41.png

[DoctorMu]

Our interface is garbage right now.

[Stratton20]

Warm weather lovers, enjoy the next 8-9 days or so, because winter is making an appearance and wont be in a hurry to leave once it gets here about as favorable of a pattern as it gets for arctic air drainage down to brownsville

[Ptarmigan]

Warm weather lovers, enjoy the next 8-9 days or so, because winter is making an appearance and wont be in a hurry to leave once it gets here about as favorable of a pattern as it gets for arctic air drainage down to brownsville

Bring on winter.

[Ptarmigan]

NWS Austin/San Antonio issued Flash Flood Watch for Central Texas.
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwa ... od%20watch

Code: Select all

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
840 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.An upper level low will interact with deep low level moisture and
then bring a Pacific cold front through South-Central Texas
Wednesday night and Thursday. This combination of features will lead
to locally heavy rainfall over the Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill
Country, and I-35 Corridor. Showers and thunderstorms will begin out
west Wednesday night and move across the region Thursday exiting our
eastern area Friday morning. Some storms will produce locally heavy
rain leading to flash flooding.

TXZ171>173-183>192-202>206-191800-
/O.CON.KEWX.FA.A.0010.251120T0600Z-251121T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Kinney-Uvalde-Medina-Bexar-
Comal-
Including the cities of Rocksprings, Boerne, Brackettville, San
Marcos, Leakey, Uvalde, Blanco, New Braunfels, Fredericksburg,
Del Rio, Austin, Georgetown, Bandera, Kerrville, Burnet, Llano,
San Antonio, and Hondo
840 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...A portion of south central Texas, including the following
  counties, Bandera, Bexar, Blanco, Burnet, Comal, Edwards,
  Gillespie, Hays, Kendall, Kerr, Kinney, Llano, Medina, Real,
  Travis, Uvalde, Val Verde and Williamson.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur
  in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be
  flooded.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches with isolated totals to 6
    inches.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

OB

[DoctorMu]

For your entertainment:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_55.png

[Stratton20]

Sweet mother of jefferson davis! I love those AIFS temps Its been pretty consistent about this lol, guess we will put the AIFS to the test and see how this pattern unfolds

[tireman4]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[DoctorMu]

Terrible November just got more terrible. Got hit with my Dear John letter as part of a reduction in force, of which apparently my role was the only one eliminated, effective as of 5PM when it was walked to my office.

CEO rearranged the organization last week to where I started reporting to his 2nd in command instead of him. Then suddenly this guy brings me the letter so the CEO doesnt have to deal with me. No advance notice. Just pack my stuff and get out. I can read the severance letter at home.

I will never work for a startup again in my life after this. I just hope I can find gainful employment again without having to relocate again so soon. Its only been like 15 months.

So sorry to hear that. Our son just completed his PhD in engineering and ls looking for a job in industry, start-ups, or academia. Crazy times.

[Pas_Bon]

Sweet mother of jefferson davis! I love those AIFS temps Its been pretty consistent about this lol, guess we will put the AIFS to the test and see how this pattern unfolds

Sorry to say, but Jefferson Davis' mother was a stern woman. Nothing sweet about her.
I know this from personal experience. She would only let us play the Xbox for 10mins TOPS.

[Stratton20]

12z ensembles across the board are coming in much colder than the OP runs

[sambucol]

12z ensembles across the board are coming in much colder than the OP runs

As in below freezing here?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Buckle your tits, it’s gonna be a fun December!

[tireman4]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... suedby=HGX