Tropical Discussion 2025

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We have Melissa

[tireman4]

Andy Hazelton

[tireman4]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 221148
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

...RECON FINDS MELISSA MOVING VERY SLOWLY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 73.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was
located by Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft near latitude
14.3 North, longitude 73.5 West. Melissa is moving very slowly
toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow forward speed
and a gradual turn to the northwest and north-northwest is expected
during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa is
expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti
later this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is anticipated during the next few days,
and Melissa could become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data
is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning late on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could
begin in Jamaica late on Thursday or Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to
the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional
heavy rainfall is possible beyond Saturday; however, uncertainty in
Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact
totals. Significant flash flooding and landslides are possible.

Across the northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western
Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected through Saturday. For
Aruba and Puerto Rico, 1 to 3 inches are expected through the same
period. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least
Saturday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[tireman4]

036
WTNT43 KNHC 220859
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been
extremely useful in showing that the center of Melissa has
re-formed to the northeast of the previous center. Earlier
scatterometer data had already shown an elongated circulation, and
the very deep convection combined with the moderate westerly shear
has caused the re-formation. The initial intensity is kept at 45
kt, a compromise between somewhat lower aircraft winds but also
lower central pressure, now at 1000 mb.

The initial motion is estimated, with low confidence, to be 295/6.
Melissa is forecast to move very slowly to the northwest and
north-northwest during the next few days into a weakness by an
approaching mid-latitude trough. There continues to be a very
large uncertainty on whether the storm would turn more into the
weakness and threaten Haiti or Cuba, or whether it would turn
more westward to the south of Jamaica as a ridge rebuilds over the
Bahamas, with reliable models in either camp. This appears to be
somewhat tied to the storm's structure, with the less vertically
coherent model solutions generally ending up on the western side of
the track envelope this weekend, and stronger initial storm
representations on the northeastern side. With such a distinct
track bifurcation noted in the guidance (excluding the consensus
aids) and dependence on structure, this should be considered an
extremely uncertain forecast, and significant changes could be
required. The model trends have been favoring the more westward
solutions recently, and the official forecast is nudged in that
direction at long range.

Melissa is likely to be encountering moderate wind shear for the
next few days, counteracted by the very warm and moist conditions
in the Caribbean Sea. This pattern favors slow intensification
through that time. At long range, some relaxation of this shear is
anticipated with the more equatorward storm solutions showing the
most conducive environment. The new NHC wind speed prediction
is much higher than the last one by day 5, but still lower than the
model consensus due to continuity constraints. While there is
still a large forecast intensity uncertainty, the chances of a major
hurricane increase if this forecast were to trend farther southwest
at long range, similar to many of the recent regional hurricane
model forecasts.


Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend,
bringing a risk of significant flash flooding and landslides.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. A Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed by Thursday.

3. There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity
forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 14.3N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 14.7N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 15.2N 74.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 15.6N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 16.0N 75.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 16.3N 75.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 16.7N 75.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 17.0N 76.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 17.0N 76.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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000
WTNT33 KNHC 271147
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING
CATEGORY 5 MELISSA...
...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING WILL
WORSEN ON JAMAICA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 78.0W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...913 MB...26.96 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and
Holguin.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southeastern and central Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Las Tunas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion
in Cuba.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 78.0 West. Melissa is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow turn toward the
northwest and north is expected today and tonight, followed by a
northeastward acceleration beginning on Tuesday and continuing
through at least Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of
Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica tonight and
Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the
southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h)
with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is forecast today, with fluctuations in intensity likely before
Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica early Tuesday. Melissa is
expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as a powerful major
hurricane, and will still be at hurricane strength when it moves
across the southeastern Bahamas.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The minimum central pressure from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft
data is 913 mb (26.96 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in Jamaica, and
destructive hurricane conditions are expected to begin tonight or
early Tuesday. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills
and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger than the
near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated
locations could be even greater.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba on
Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected to begin in the
hurricane warning area by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in Haiti late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible in the
southeastern and central Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos
Islands, on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches for
southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima
of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous
landslides are likely.

For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with
local amounts to 20 inches, is expected today through Wednesday
resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash
flooding with numerous landslides.

Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is
expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica tonight and on Tuesday. Peak storm surge
heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights
could reach 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm surge is possible in the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and
Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next several days, and the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Andy Hazelton

[tireman4]

Alex Boreham

[tireman4]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 271448
TCDAT3

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Melissa has the classic strong hurricane appearance in satellite
imagery this morning, with a well-defined 10-nm wide eye embedded
in a central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -80C. The
hurricane also has a large complex of outer banding over the
eastern semicircle and a circulation that covers most of the
Caribbean west of 70 degrees west longitude. Reports from NOAA and
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the central
pressure has fallen to near 908 mb, with both aircraft releasing
dropsondes in the northeastern eyewall that support an initial
intensity of 145 kt. The NOAA aircraft left the storm early after
experiencing severe turbulence in the southwestern eyewall.

The eye is wobbling around due to the slow motion, but the best
estimate of the initial motion is 270/3 kt. The mid-level ridge
north of Melissa is weakening as a deep-layer mid-latitude trough
moves eastward through the southeastern United States. This should
cause the hurricane to turn northward during the next 12 h or so at
a continued slow forward speed. After 24 h, Melissa should turn
northeastward with some increase in forward speed as the
mid-latitude westerly flow becomes the dominant steering
mechanism. This general motion should continue for the rest of the
forecast period. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa will
be near or over Jamaica late tonight or early Tuesday, cross
eastern Cuba Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and then move near
or over the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday. After
that, the cyclone could reach the vicinity of Bermuda on Thursday
night. The new forecast track has some minor adjustments from the
previous track and is a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus, the
Google DeepMind ensemble mean, and the other consensus models.

Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12-24 h
due to the possibility that Melissa will start an eyewall
replacement cycle. However, this is unlikely to weaken Melissa
significantly, and there is no practical difference in Melissa
making landfall in Jamaica at category 4 or 5 intensity, since both
categories produce catastrophic wind damage. After reaching Jamaica,
a combination of land interaction and increasing southwesterly shear
should cause some weakening, although Melissa is still forecast to
be a major hurricane when it reaches Cuba. Once over the Atlantic,
stronger shear should cause more substantial weakening, and Melissa
is expected to become extratropical by the end of the forecast
period. The new intensity forecast has minor adjustments from the
previous and follows the trend of the intensity consensus.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Do not venture out of your safe shelter. Catastrophic
and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are
likely today through Tuesday. Catastrophic winds in the eyewall have
the potential to cause total structural failure especially in higher
elevation areas tonight and early Tuesday. This will result in
extensive infrastructural damage, long-lasting power and
communication outages, and isolated communities. Life-threatening
storm surge and damaging waves are expected along the southern coast
through Tuesday.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across
southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic
through midweek. In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and
isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are
expected late Tuesday and Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall with life-threatening and
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides is expected
beginning today. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are
expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Preparations should be
rushed to completion.

4. Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are possible on
Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials
and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 16.4N 78.2W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 16.9N 78.3W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 17.8N 77.9W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 19.1N 76.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 20.8N 75.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 23.0N 73.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 25.9N 71.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 34.3N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 42.8N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Ptarmigan]

Jamaica in November 1909 had 135 inches of rainfall.
https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2022A ... K/abstract

The slow movement of Melissa is going to dump heavy rain over a large area.