October 2025

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Ptarmigan
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The drought is getting worse.
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DoctorMu
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Agreement per Euro, CMC, GFS of a FROPA around the 20th. Canadian has the most enthusiasm. 10 long days until then.
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Fri Oct 10, 2025 12:31 am Agreement per Euro, CMC, GFS of a FROPA around the 20th. Canadian has the most enthusiasm. 10 long days until then.
It’ll probably just put temps near normal. I doubt it’ll be anything of significance.
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tireman4
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Oct 10, 2025 9:18 am
DoctorMu wrote: Fri Oct 10, 2025 12:31 am Agreement per Euro, CMC, GFS of a FROPA around the 20th. Canadian has the most enthusiasm. 10 long days until then.
It’ll probably just put temps near normal. I doubt it’ll be anything of significance.


Right, upper 70s for highs...is the last GFS 2 meter I saw. I think we all collectively will take that. :)
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DoctorMu
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tireman4 wrote: Fri Oct 10, 2025 9:52 am
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Oct 10, 2025 9:18 am
DoctorMu wrote: Fri Oct 10, 2025 12:31 am Agreement per Euro, CMC, GFS of a FROPA around the 20th. Canadian has the most enthusiasm. 10 long days until then.
It’ll probably just put temps near normal. I doubt it’ll be anything of significance.


Right, upper 70s for highs...is the last GFS 2 meter I saw. I think we all collectively will take that. :)
Realistically, we're hoping it's below 80°F for Halloween. That's normal.
Cpv17
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tireman4 wrote: Fri Oct 10, 2025 9:52 am
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Oct 10, 2025 9:18 am
DoctorMu wrote: Fri Oct 10, 2025 12:31 am Agreement per Euro, CMC, GFS of a FROPA around the 20th. Canadian has the most enthusiasm. 10 long days until then.
It’ll probably just put temps near normal. I doubt it’ll be anything of significance.


Right, upper 70s for highs...is the last GFS 2 meter I saw. I think we all collectively will take that. :)
As long as we get rid of dews in the 70’s, I’m good with it.
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Fri Oct 10, 2025 9:58 am
tireman4 wrote: Fri Oct 10, 2025 9:52 am
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Oct 10, 2025 9:18 am

It’ll probably just put temps near normal. I doubt it’ll be anything of significance.


Right, upper 70s for highs...is the last GFS 2 meter I saw. I think we all collectively will take that. :)
Realistically, we're hoping it's below 80°F for Halloween. That's normal.
80’s and even low 90’s are good with me as long as it’s comfortable.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Oct 10, 2025 11:14 am
tireman4 wrote: Fri Oct 10, 2025 9:52 am
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Oct 10, 2025 9:18 am

It’ll probably just put temps near normal. I doubt it’ll be anything of significance.


Right, upper 70s for highs...is the last GFS 2 meter I saw. I think we all collectively will take that. :)
As long as we get rid of dews in the 70’s, I’m good with it.
Yeah, no mas on DPs in the 70s on December 7.

Give me some 50s on the DP. Gainesville, FL and north Florida have highs in the low 80s this time of year and DPs in the upper 50s. The low DPs in north Florida continue until late April.

...and it rains in the summer.
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Ptarmigan
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Oct 10, 2025 11:14 am
tireman4 wrote: Fri Oct 10, 2025 9:52 am
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Oct 10, 2025 9:18 am

It’ll probably just put temps near normal. I doubt it’ll be anything of significance.


Right, upper 70s for highs...is the last GFS 2 meter I saw. I think we all collectively will take that. :)
As long as we get rid of dews in the 70’s, I’m good with it.
I will take the low dew points. Thank you very much. 8-)
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tireman4
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Long range ..
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Cpv17
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Big changes from the CPC today.
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Oct 11, 2025 2:48 pm Big changes from the CPC today.
I hope those changes involve rain. :)
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DoctorMu
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CPC: Temps in the 10+ day outlooks (late in the 6-10 day) and in the 8-14 day... feature not much relief from the heat, but a better chance of rain.

On the phone assps, fwiw - a slight chance of rain next weekend and then in the Oct. 22-24 range. I other words, pie in the sky.

Unfortunately, that may mean more humidity, but still no rain in CLL

Any decent FROPA still remains 14 days out in our Groundhog Day Month.

At least the dry air brought lows at the casa of 56.5°F and 58°F. Low 60s at the UHI airport.

For this week, and likely then next 10-14 days...

https://youtu.be/NkCa49I6_xw?si=LdXB5N9oQmPGF2PW
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tireman4
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Long Range
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Stratton20
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Rain chances are looking better, but dont expect fall air anytime soon, classic Aleutian trough pattern or + EPO will keep us well above normal temperature wise through the remainder of october and likely the first half of november
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