You take that back, Sir.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 04, 2025 1:54 pm 500 MB height pattern through the rest of october looks absolutely ugly with an aleutian trough over alaska and troughing in the bering sea, you can pretty much kiss any chance of a fall front this month goodbye, rain chances look pretty weak as well
October 2025
October 2004 was dry, while November 2004 was wet. There was flooding in Wharton County of 19 inches of rain.tireman4 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 03, 2025 9:20 am I will say this. I remember October 2004 ( my first year of marriage), it was abnormally hot. In fact, it is still the hottest October of all time. Halloween was brutal at 88 degrees. Ridges do happen, all the time. Eventually, the heat will be dislodged ( Meteorology 101, the earth/weather always likes things equal) because the colder air up north will push down toward us. Until we have that real strong front, we will deal with this.
https://hydromet.lcra.org/Documents/200 ... report.pdf
https://www.weather.gov/media/hgx/storm ... v04hgx.pdf
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tireman4
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As I was stating earlier, pressures from up north ( meaning colder air) will eventually force itself south. I am hearing about a pattern change later this month, but it might be gradual.
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^ That would be great. So far, this October is another "Groundhog month."
An iconic day. CLL was dry slotted, so I drove my kids (just tykes) down to Houston and close to my wife's brother's house. On 290 in NW Travis snowfall began and we stopped at McD's for a late lunch. By the time were were on Gessner Rd, there were 2 inches on the road. About 3 blocks from his house, the thermostat stuck on the Dodge Caravan and the car overheated. There was one service station open. We pulled in and walked to their uncle's place in the magic snow globe in fading light that was Houston on Christmas Eve 2024. The snow miracle reached Galveston and down to Corpus. The SETX weather event of a lifetime.
Oh, see my avatar for the satellite image!
Last edited by DoctorMu on Mon Oct 06, 2025 5:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
At one point I had 40-50% rain chances this week.
Now zero.
Figures, par for the course, same story different day, broken record, yada yada yada
Now zero.
Figures, par for the course, same story different day, broken record, yada yada yada
Just sayin.' Will be gone tomorrow.
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We probably won’t have a fall. We’ll go straight to winter. My bet is on 80’s and 90’s the rest of the month then an early freeze. Then lots of fire alert days.
Climo always takes a hand, particularly solar angle and length of daytime heating...
But we also have a climate trend gumming the works moving toward a warmer fall with longer periods of dry weather and the occasional flood...interspersed with later but more frequent or intense cold snaps easing into the winter...at least north of Hwy 1*5...with warmer weather in between Also, Spring Severe season is earlier and more concentration on the SE.
In the 1990s and 00s, October was more dynamic and November had mild, sunny weather with cooler in December but not that dynamic. I would not be surprised to see more dynamic weather this November and December...or more dry, but humid, and hot!
But, yes, the boring weather does not last forever.
So gone.
Looks like an Omega block and ridging setting up on GFS, CMC over the next 10-14 days.
Texas weather has always had a propensity to get stuck in a pattern or mode. More noticeable in the Fall and to a lesser extent the Spring. We're stuck yet again for now.
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Stratton20
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More like for the rest of the month, this pattern isnt going anywhere, fall is canceled for good