August 2025
Haven’t gotten a drop of rain in League City in weeks.
No rain, but at least it's 10°F cooler than yesterday. So far.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6428
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
424
FXUS64 KHGX 191804
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
104 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025
- Hot and humid conditions remain with a daily risk of showers and
thunderstorms through tomorrow.
- Weak boundary approaching from the north will bring increased
rain chances Thursday through Friday with locally heavy rainfall
possible.
- Rain chances lower over the weekend, but may continue to see
daytime heating driven activity near the coast during the
afternoons.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025
A shortwave moving through the region brought about a cluster of
strong thunderstorms that moved all the way from the Piney Woods
region near dawn this morning down through Matagorda Bay by Noon.
Some additional pop-up showers and thunderstorms will be possible
along the coast up through the I-10 corridor through this evening,
but coverage should be lower as the thunderstorms this morning
likely worked over the region. Additional weaknesses aloft
combined with daytime heating and moist air will bring
continued chances of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for tomorrow. A weak boundary will begin to approach
from the north on Thursday and then stall near the coast through
at least the start of the weekend bringing a surge in PWATs
across the Texas coast. With this boundary nearby, high moisture,
and summer-time heating will lead to increased chances of showers
and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible. Rain chances
do begin to lower through the weekend as high pressure over the
Desert Southwest strengthens and pushes the boundary off the
coast. However, even though the rain chances lower, they do not
become zero - especially along the coast where some higher PWATs
linger.
Hot and humid conditions will continue through Wednesday with
afternoon highs reaching in the mid to upper 90s for most of the
region (slightly cooler at the coast) with heat indices rising
into the triple digits. Parts of the Piney Woods may have heat
indices approach 105-108 degrees, just beginning to touch on Heat
Advisory thresholds, but will hold off on issuing any products
until either the likelihood of 108+ degree heat indices
increases. A slight cool down is expected beginning on Thursday
due to that boundary approaching from the north and increased rain
chances/cloud cover leading to high temperatures in the low 90s
for much of the region. Temperatures do begin to creep back up
into the mid or upper 90s over the weekend as some drier air
filters into the area. Overnight lows will continue to be in the
mid to upper 70s inland and low 80s along the coast through the
weekend.
Fowler
FXUS64 KHGX 191804
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
104 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025
- Hot and humid conditions remain with a daily risk of showers and
thunderstorms through tomorrow.
- Weak boundary approaching from the north will bring increased
rain chances Thursday through Friday with locally heavy rainfall
possible.
- Rain chances lower over the weekend, but may continue to see
daytime heating driven activity near the coast during the
afternoons.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025
A shortwave moving through the region brought about a cluster of
strong thunderstorms that moved all the way from the Piney Woods
region near dawn this morning down through Matagorda Bay by Noon.
Some additional pop-up showers and thunderstorms will be possible
along the coast up through the I-10 corridor through this evening,
but coverage should be lower as the thunderstorms this morning
likely worked over the region. Additional weaknesses aloft
combined with daytime heating and moist air will bring
continued chances of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms for tomorrow. A weak boundary will begin to approach
from the north on Thursday and then stall near the coast through
at least the start of the weekend bringing a surge in PWATs
across the Texas coast. With this boundary nearby, high moisture,
and summer-time heating will lead to increased chances of showers
and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain possible. Rain chances
do begin to lower through the weekend as high pressure over the
Desert Southwest strengthens and pushes the boundary off the
coast. However, even though the rain chances lower, they do not
become zero - especially along the coast where some higher PWATs
linger.
Hot and humid conditions will continue through Wednesday with
afternoon highs reaching in the mid to upper 90s for most of the
region (slightly cooler at the coast) with heat indices rising
into the triple digits. Parts of the Piney Woods may have heat
indices approach 105-108 degrees, just beginning to touch on Heat
Advisory thresholds, but will hold off on issuing any products
until either the likelihood of 108+ degree heat indices
increases. A slight cool down is expected beginning on Thursday
due to that boundary approaching from the north and increased rain
chances/cloud cover leading to high temperatures in the low 90s
for much of the region. Temperatures do begin to creep back up
into the mid or upper 90s over the weekend as some drier air
filters into the area. Overnight lows will continue to be in the
mid to upper 70s inland and low 80s along the coast through the
weekend.
Fowler
It seems like Conroe has been hitting the rain jackpot lately.
Hitting the jackpot today.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6428
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
962
FXUS64 KHGX 201116
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
616 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025
- Hot and humid conditions continue today with scattered to isolated
storms.
- A weak boundary approaching from the north should increase
shower/storm coverage on Thursday & Friday with locally heavy
rainfall possible.
- Rain chances lower over the weekend, but we should continue to
see some diurnal storms into next week, especially near the
coast during the afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025
Today will see a similar pattern weather-wise as we remain on the
southeastern edge of a mid/upper level ridge. Additional shortwave
impulses will round the peripheral of the ridge to pass over SE Texas
from the north, which should tap into the abundant moisture to
produce some showers/thunderstorms. CAM guidance has faced
difficulty with depicting convection these last few days, though the
broad consensus between models puts greater storm coverage & rain
chances around/north of the I-10 corridor. Should see much of this
activity during the afternoon period, coinciding with daytime
heating, though again take all this with a grain of salt, as it
seems the 00z CAMs have done a poor job initializing activity
upstream in Oklahoma. This environment still features high
precipitation efficiency, thus there is a chance that a few storms
could produce some stronger downpours with locally heavy rainfall.
Thursday and Friday sees a more noticeable pattern change with the
introduction of a weak boundary, which should push into SE Texas on
Thursday and eventually stall out near the coast (though I wouldn`t
get very attached to an exact timing right now based the shaky CAM
performance). Pooling moisture, the influx of additional lift
provided from the boundary and shortwave impulses moving over the
areas should enable greater coverage for showers/thunderstorms
through Friday. High precipitation efficiency will still enable
storms to produce strong downpours and possibly locally heavy
rainfall on these days especially. WPC currently has SE Texas under
a Marginal (level 1/4) Risk of Excessive rainfall on Thursday. The
00z CAMs seem rather sparse with convection for Thursday, though
again I`d be skeptical to take this as truth this far our given the
current runs struggles to capture ongoing activity. Friday isn`t
outlooked yet, but reasonably could see a Marginal risk as well
depending on how the mesoscale environment evolves, though the
moisture axis should generally fall south of the I-10 corridor by
this point.
Ridging is poised to strengthen over the Desert Southwest this
weekend, which should broadly reduce PoPs (with the main moisture
axis shifting further offshore) and pull up temperatures once again.
However, daily chances for showers/storms should continue into next
week, especially as a broad upper level low/trough over the Great
Lakes/Quebec/Ontario is poised to push another frontal boundary &
round of shortwaves towards our area early next week. Greater model
spread emerges at this point of the forecast, though the broad
strokes remain the same as predominantly hot weather with daily
thunderstorm chances persist.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025
Localized areas of IFR/MVFR will improve to VFR this morning. By
this afternoon, the primary concern will be potential shra/tsra
that pushes into our region from the north. Uncertain exists
regarding how far to the south this shra/tsra is able to push. For
now, the TAFs indicate a chance of these storms making it all the
way to the coast, with our northern terminals having the highest
chance of tsra. Any tsra will have the potential to produce
locally high winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning, along with
the potential for MVFR/IFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025
Conditions will be fairly calm with 1-3 ft seas and seabreeze-
landbreeze driven winds around 5-10 knots (offshore/northwesterly
early in the morning, then onshore/southeasterly in the afternoon).
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be a daily
possibility, primarily during the daytime hours. Coverage of
showers/storms should be greatest on Thursday and Friday as a weak
boundary pushes into the area. Rain chances later decrease over the
weekend. Locally higher winds and seas are expected near any
thunderstorms that develop.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 75 95 74 / 30 40 60 30
Houston (IAH) 97 77 92 77 / 40 40 80 50
Galveston (GLS) 93 80 91 81 / 30 60 70 70
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...03
FXUS64 KHGX 201116
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
616 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025
- Hot and humid conditions continue today with scattered to isolated
storms.
- A weak boundary approaching from the north should increase
shower/storm coverage on Thursday & Friday with locally heavy
rainfall possible.
- Rain chances lower over the weekend, but we should continue to
see some diurnal storms into next week, especially near the
coast during the afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025
Today will see a similar pattern weather-wise as we remain on the
southeastern edge of a mid/upper level ridge. Additional shortwave
impulses will round the peripheral of the ridge to pass over SE Texas
from the north, which should tap into the abundant moisture to
produce some showers/thunderstorms. CAM guidance has faced
difficulty with depicting convection these last few days, though the
broad consensus between models puts greater storm coverage & rain
chances around/north of the I-10 corridor. Should see much of this
activity during the afternoon period, coinciding with daytime
heating, though again take all this with a grain of salt, as it
seems the 00z CAMs have done a poor job initializing activity
upstream in Oklahoma. This environment still features high
precipitation efficiency, thus there is a chance that a few storms
could produce some stronger downpours with locally heavy rainfall.
Thursday and Friday sees a more noticeable pattern change with the
introduction of a weak boundary, which should push into SE Texas on
Thursday and eventually stall out near the coast (though I wouldn`t
get very attached to an exact timing right now based the shaky CAM
performance). Pooling moisture, the influx of additional lift
provided from the boundary and shortwave impulses moving over the
areas should enable greater coverage for showers/thunderstorms
through Friday. High precipitation efficiency will still enable
storms to produce strong downpours and possibly locally heavy
rainfall on these days especially. WPC currently has SE Texas under
a Marginal (level 1/4) Risk of Excessive rainfall on Thursday. The
00z CAMs seem rather sparse with convection for Thursday, though
again I`d be skeptical to take this as truth this far our given the
current runs struggles to capture ongoing activity. Friday isn`t
outlooked yet, but reasonably could see a Marginal risk as well
depending on how the mesoscale environment evolves, though the
moisture axis should generally fall south of the I-10 corridor by
this point.
Ridging is poised to strengthen over the Desert Southwest this
weekend, which should broadly reduce PoPs (with the main moisture
axis shifting further offshore) and pull up temperatures once again.
However, daily chances for showers/storms should continue into next
week, especially as a broad upper level low/trough over the Great
Lakes/Quebec/Ontario is poised to push another frontal boundary &
round of shortwaves towards our area early next week. Greater model
spread emerges at this point of the forecast, though the broad
strokes remain the same as predominantly hot weather with daily
thunderstorm chances persist.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025
Localized areas of IFR/MVFR will improve to VFR this morning. By
this afternoon, the primary concern will be potential shra/tsra
that pushes into our region from the north. Uncertain exists
regarding how far to the south this shra/tsra is able to push. For
now, the TAFs indicate a chance of these storms making it all the
way to the coast, with our northern terminals having the highest
chance of tsra. Any tsra will have the potential to produce
locally high winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning, along with
the potential for MVFR/IFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025
Conditions will be fairly calm with 1-3 ft seas and seabreeze-
landbreeze driven winds around 5-10 knots (offshore/northwesterly
early in the morning, then onshore/southeasterly in the afternoon).
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be a daily
possibility, primarily during the daytime hours. Coverage of
showers/storms should be greatest on Thursday and Friday as a weak
boundary pushes into the area. Rain chances later decrease over the
weekend. Locally higher winds and seas are expected near any
thunderstorms that develop.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 75 95 74 / 30 40 60 30
Houston (IAH) 97 77 92 77 / 40 40 80 50
Galveston (GLS) 93 80 91 81 / 30 60 70 70
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...03
GFS 06z is showing some confidence in next week's FROPA. The Euro stalls it in north Texas.
I'd be surprised, but weather in late August can provide unexpected fronts, tropical mischief.
I'd be surprised, but weather in late August can provide unexpected fronts, tropical mischief.
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