Yeah, that wind was no joke lol
Just over 0.5 inches so far here.
Long-term forecast going as expected. Mid-level ridging early in the week, then the ridge moves NW and return to normalcy.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
115 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, TROPICAL...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025
- Tropical disturbance has moved inland earlier this afternoon
dropping its probability of development down to 0%.
- Increased tropical moisture today and Saturday will lead to
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms along with a
high risk of rip currents along the coast.
- Hot and humid conditions return this weekend with a daily
chances of showers and thunderstorms extending into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025
Increased tropical moisture from the now inland tropical
disturbance will continue to bring elevated chances for showers
and storms across Southeast Texas into Saturday. With PW values
peaking in the 2.2-2.4" range, there is potential for locally
heavy rainfall. If any of these storms sits over an area for an
extended period of time, we could see brief street flooding.
However, based on how fast the initial rain band moved through
earlier today, it`d likely take a north-to-south oriented rain band
to have a chance of street flooding. The probability of that isn`t
zero though, so a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive
rainfall is in place for nearly all of southeast Texas for today
and on Saturday. The rain moving through early-ish in the
afternoon today will have a slight impact on the high temperatures
as they`ll only top out in the low to mid 90s...but could see a
few spots rebound into the upper 90s.
Going into Saturday, mid-level high pressure continues to build
in, but it won`t be overly impressive (AKA not enough subsidence
to keep the elevated moisture at bay). Plenty of shortwaves
passing underneath the ridge will help keep rain chances elevated
throughout the weekend and going into next week. So, essentially
we`ll just be hot and humid with daily rain chances...not much
different right?! After midweek, the center of the ridge nudges
northwestward up towards the Four Corners region allowing for a
trough to push into the southern/southeastern CONUS. Deterministic
model guidance is consistent on increasing moisture along the
Gulf Coast leading to...you guessed it...chances for showers and
storms to continue. We`ll have to monitor trends towards the end
of the work week and see if the potential for locally heavy
rainfall remains.
As far as temperatures go, we`ll be solidly in the mid to upper
90s through midweek then as that plume of moisture moves in we
drop things down into the low to mid 90s. Heat indices will need
to be monitored over the weekend into early next week as we do
flirt with the Heat Advisory threshold with heat indices well into
the triple digits. Please continue to practice heat safety! If
you`re planning on taking a break from the heat by going to beach,
be advised that the rip current risk will be elevated through the
weekend due to the swells from the tropical disturbance.
Batiste
&&
August 2025
Wind wasn’t bad here at all. It started to really gust out a little north of here.
Ran some errands. The surrounding area really didn’t see much - it’s still pretty crispy out there. Didn’t look like a drop fell near Portofino but a couple miles north, Conroe got a nice dumping though.
Ran some errands. The surrounding area really didn’t see much - it’s still pretty crispy out there. Didn’t look like a drop fell near Portofino but a couple miles north, Conroe got a nice dumping though.
The band was starting to outflow. It collapsed about 15 miles north of here. Usually, the seabreeze tanks about 20 miles south of us (yes, Hwy 1*5). This one was tropically turbocharged.jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Aug 15, 2025 3:55 pm Wind wasn’t bad here at all. It started to really gust out a little north of here.
Ran some errands. The surrounding area really didn’t see much - it’s still pretty crispy out there. Didn’t look like a drop fell near Portofino but a couple miles north, Conroe got a nice dumping though.
Survive and advance.
After Saturday’s forecast being at 50% for days, tomorrow’s rain chances have dropped down to 40%…
Welp……we are in the Big Suck now.
We’ve been had. I’m on a hunger strike until it rains in League City.
Oops. Already broke my strike, but still.
We’ve been had. I’m on a hunger strike until it rains in League City.
Oops. Already broke my strike, but still.
Yeah this “wet pattern” supposedly started Thursday of the previous week (9 days ago).
The joke’s on us.
One last chance today. Good news is for now, the long range has come in wetter next week.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
Yeah, the ridging won't last, but we're talking about a 30% chance of rain every day, so everyone's mileage may vary. Normal last half of summer SETX weather.
Welp. In today's Lotto Seabreeze the action appears to be west of I-45. Maybe we roll 7s today again, but I'll assume snake eyes.
Welp. In today's Lotto Seabreeze the action appears to be west of I-45. Maybe we roll 7s today again, but I'll assume snake eyes.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Sat Aug 16, 2025 11:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
Just want to point out that the Euro has been largely right on ridging, and lack thereof this summer. The Euro, including EURO-AI has been far more accurate than NWS and local forecasts. Euro is spotting a back door FROPA near the end of the month.
I can roll with this.
I can roll with this.
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Wow, could the timing be right and we get something before it gusts out and skips over?
I hear thunder…
I hear thunder…
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Good little storm just ran through the Woodlands.
Wow. Finally, a good ole’ fashioned.
Stratton is getting some good rain in Katy now.
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Stratton20
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Cpv17 actually Im not getting anything but thunder lol, the radar is so misleading, its still dry here lol
That’s crazy man lolStratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 16, 2025 2:38 pm Cpv17 actually Im not getting anything but thunder lol, the radar is so misleading, its still dry here lol
The same thing happened to me yesterday. I had an orange cell right on top of me according to the radar and not a drop at my house but some thunder.
Yea these storms are very hit and miss. I took my son to his baseball training and it’s in a large warehouse with cages, astro turf field, etc. we were finishing up and it started pouring outside. To the point you could barely hear anyone talking. We walked to the front and outside it was dry. Literally raining on the back of the facility and not the front lol.
I’ll take this cloud cover all day though.
I’ll take this cloud cover all day though.
We had a line with a good vector, but it crashed and burned at the county line - a familiar story during our summers.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 16, 2025 2:40 pmThat’s crazy man lolStratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 16, 2025 2:38 pm Cpv17 actually Im not getting anything but thunder lol, the radar is so misleading, its still dry here lol
The same thing happened to me yesterday. I had an orange cell right on top of me according to the radar and not a drop at my house but some thunder.
Picked up 0.57”
It seemed like more but whatever, glad to get what we got to last for awhile.
It seemed like more but whatever, glad to get what we got to last for awhile.
Interesting AFD this morning. Good read. These setups have been ‘surprises’ for severe weather before.
This tidbit?
“Another thing the next shift or two will need to keep an eye on is
tstm potential later today. Other than the typical isolated
seabreeze cell or two, a mix of incoming 00z guidance (GFS, ARW,
FV3) shows the potential for some late afternoon and evening
development popping up to our northeast as convective temperatures
are reached. Don`t have a lot of confidence either way, but have
nudged NBM suggestions up to at least include the mention. Some
localized, healthy wind gusts are not out of the question should any
strong cells materialize.