Invest 98L

[mcheer23]

Storms with a threat to Texas will get their own thread. Continue discussion here. Odds at 20/20 but wouldn’t be surprised if they went up

[Ptarmigan]

EURO forecast model has Invest 98L heading into Deep South Texas.

[tireman4]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erin, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Southwestern Gulf (AL98):
A broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The low is
forecast to move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf
during the next day or two, where environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for further development. The system is
expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas
by late Friday, ending its chances of tropical cyclone formation.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible along
portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

[Rip76]

[mcheer23]

Southwestern Gulf (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
an area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche. The low is
forecast to move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf
during the next day or so, where environmental conditions are
marginally conducive for further development. A tropical depression
could form before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico
or southern Texas by late Friday ending its chances for tropical
development. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas
over the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is en
route to investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[tireman4]

Invest 98L
Meanwhile, in the Bay of Campeche, the tropical wave that we started watching a little more closely on Tuesday evening has now been designated Invest 98L. It actually looks okay this morning, though it lacks any sort of defined circulation center. So at this point, it's just a coherent area of thunderstorms.


Invest 98L is well defined with thunderstorms, but it lacks any formal tropical organization. (Tropical Tidbits)
Invest 98L is going to track almost straight northwest over the next 24 to 30 hours. This should come ashore in Texas by Friday evening. Any development will be lower-end and rather disjointed. In other words, we could see a sloppy tropical depression come out of this, but we probably won't see a named storm.


Invest 98L will move into Texas tomorrow evening. (Tropical Tidbits)
That said, given the thunderstorm organization here, we could see some locally heavy rainfall in South Texas as this comes in. I think as we saw last month, it does not take a well organized tropical system to cause problems in Texas. As this moves from the coastal bend into interior Texas, we will keep an eye on flooding risks that may emerge from this, although right now those risks are on the low to very low side.


5-day rainfall forecast focused over Texas shows generally 0.5 to 1 inch of rain on the coast, with lower amounts inland.
Overall, the thinking is that this will be more beneficial with increased rain chances over drier South Texas than anything else.

Elsewhere, no other specific waves are of serious concern right now, but we'll keep an eye on that over the next few days and see if new areas of interest are introduced. We'll stop there for now. Keep tabs on our Notes for any intermittent updates.

[DoctorMu]

[Stratton20]

Those are some pretty pathetic looking rainfall totals for a tropical disturbance, hope we can get alot more than that

[Rip76]

Those are some pretty pathetic looking rainfall totals for a tropical disturbance, hope we can get alot more than that

No kidding. Must be some high pressure lingering around.

We 'bout to get Don'd.

[Brazoriatx979]

If we can just get some cloud cover ill be happy with that! give my ac unit a day off from running non stop. The rain would just be icing on the cake at this point.

[tireman4]

Colin Myers

[DoctorMu]

If we can just get some cloud cover ill be happy with that! give my ac unit a day off from running non stop. The rain would just be icing on the cake at this point.

I'm with ya!

[DoctorMu]

Colin Myers

I'm with the Euro on this. Mesos are a maybe.

[Rip76]

Colin Myers

I'm with the Euro on this. Mesos are a maybe.

Bring this.

[Stratton20]

98L has gone up to 50% now, with the NHC noting that it is showing signs of organization now

[Pas_Bon]

98L has gone up to 50% now, with the NHC noting that it is showing signs of organization now

Indeed. One could deduce that just by satellite loop. Impressive little runt.

[oleander]

Bring it on. Bone dry at our place in Colorado County.

[Cpv17]

Bring it on. Bone dry at our place in Colorado County.

What part of Colorado County?

[tireman4]

98L

[jasons2k]

Still an open wave with multiple vortices. Another “if it had 24 more hours…”