My Ambient Weather Station ap shows multiple sites on the west side of San Antonio got to 62-65* last night.
July 2025
Nice mixdown of dry air here in the NW territories. 54°F DP right now. 96°F feels like a crisp 94°F.
I remember the summer dry mixdowns days back in the 90s and to a lesser extent in the '10s when we had a lot of NW flow...but with it came droughts. Moisture will return over the next 24-48 hours. and with it the heat indexes again.
I've looked at the synoptic setup the next couple weeks and, unfortunately, I see zero chances for snow for SE Texas over the next 2 weeks.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6355
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
372
FXUS64 KHGX 311132
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
- Unseasonably hot and dry weather persists today, but as moisture
increases, look for slightly lower temperatures, slightly higher
humidity, and isolated showers and storms, with the best
potential east of I-45.
- Higher shower/thunderstorm chances take center stage through the
weekend, while temperatures take a small step back to more
seasonable levels. There is a marginal risk of excessive rain
(Threat level 1 of 4) both on Friday and Saturday across
Southeast Texas.
- Next week features seasonably hot/humid conditions and a daily
risk of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
Deeper moisture and afternoon/evening convective came right up to
our eastern border (indeed, we even saw an outflow boundary with
some 20-30 mph winds push a little into our area from the east)
but our portion of Southeast Texas remained unseasonably hot and
dry (especially dry!) for another day. So, while the city of
Houston mark at IAH was one degree off a record high at 101, at
least it was a dry heat? Yes, temps of 101 with a heat index of
"just" 100-105 is still pretty oppressive, but I suppose there`s
something to be said for variety.
Of course, that channel of moisture that supported scattered to
numerous storms over Southwest Louisiana will gradually overspread
our area - so heading into the weekend, look for conditions to
gradually get closer to seasonal averages. This is a small step
down in temperature, but also a boost to humidity...and also an
increase in clouds and afternoon thunderstorm coverage. Look for
today to be just a modest step in that direction, so still hot and
dry, but less so than yesterday. Storm coverage looks to max out
on Saturday, and as moisture deepens, we could see some locally
heavy rain out of the strongest storms of the day. Perhaps not a
surprise, but Friday and Saturday have most or all of the area in
a marginal risk for excessive rain. Because the heaviest rains
will be localized and may or may not fall over vulnerable spots,
the threat is somewhat limited, landing us in that first of four
threat levels.
Even in these peak days, ensemble data does not suggest
exceptionally high moisture levels - probably above average, but
below the 90th percentile nor any indications for extreme amounts
of rainfall in the Euro Extreme Forecast Index (wish I could say
the same for temperatures today!). So, as we head into Sunday and
out of the peak environment for showers and storms, we should see
things begin to settle back into the "typical" summertime in
Southeast Texas. Hot, humid, and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
All sites at VFR currently. A line of showers and thunderstorms
is moving into the Gulf Waters, though some of the line extends
inland and may impact GLS in the next hour or two. If this line
holds together, it may also impact LBX. Uncertainty lies in how
far inland this line will extend as it moves through, and this
could impact HOU if any further development occurs. This line
should be through the area by mid-morning. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into the
evening hours with sea breeze activity. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions to persist with winds light out of the SW becoming more
southerly through the afternoon and evening hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
Persistent low seas and light to occasionally moderate winds
driven by the daily seabreeze and landbreeze cycle are expected
to remain in place for the next several days. Though the afternoon
seabreeze has been fairly weak of late, we should see better
onshore flow return this weekend. Along with that, daily chance
of scattered showers and thunderstorms increase, peaking on
Saturday, but with daily rounds of isolated to scattered storms
continuing into next week. At the coast, tidal levels should
continue to be only modestly above astronomical norms with low rip
current threat.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 100 78 100 76 / 20 20 30 30
Houston (IAH) 98 79 98 79 / 20 20 30 30
Galveston (GLS) 93 83 93 82 / 20 10 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Luchs
FXUS64 KHGX 311132
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
- Unseasonably hot and dry weather persists today, but as moisture
increases, look for slightly lower temperatures, slightly higher
humidity, and isolated showers and storms, with the best
potential east of I-45.
- Higher shower/thunderstorm chances take center stage through the
weekend, while temperatures take a small step back to more
seasonable levels. There is a marginal risk of excessive rain
(Threat level 1 of 4) both on Friday and Saturday across
Southeast Texas.
- Next week features seasonably hot/humid conditions and a daily
risk of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
Deeper moisture and afternoon/evening convective came right up to
our eastern border (indeed, we even saw an outflow boundary with
some 20-30 mph winds push a little into our area from the east)
but our portion of Southeast Texas remained unseasonably hot and
dry (especially dry!) for another day. So, while the city of
Houston mark at IAH was one degree off a record high at 101, at
least it was a dry heat? Yes, temps of 101 with a heat index of
"just" 100-105 is still pretty oppressive, but I suppose there`s
something to be said for variety.
Of course, that channel of moisture that supported scattered to
numerous storms over Southwest Louisiana will gradually overspread
our area - so heading into the weekend, look for conditions to
gradually get closer to seasonal averages. This is a small step
down in temperature, but also a boost to humidity...and also an
increase in clouds and afternoon thunderstorm coverage. Look for
today to be just a modest step in that direction, so still hot and
dry, but less so than yesterday. Storm coverage looks to max out
on Saturday, and as moisture deepens, we could see some locally
heavy rain out of the strongest storms of the day. Perhaps not a
surprise, but Friday and Saturday have most or all of the area in
a marginal risk for excessive rain. Because the heaviest rains
will be localized and may or may not fall over vulnerable spots,
the threat is somewhat limited, landing us in that first of four
threat levels.
Even in these peak days, ensemble data does not suggest
exceptionally high moisture levels - probably above average, but
below the 90th percentile nor any indications for extreme amounts
of rainfall in the Euro Extreme Forecast Index (wish I could say
the same for temperatures today!). So, as we head into Sunday and
out of the peak environment for showers and storms, we should see
things begin to settle back into the "typical" summertime in
Southeast Texas. Hot, humid, and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
All sites at VFR currently. A line of showers and thunderstorms
is moving into the Gulf Waters, though some of the line extends
inland and may impact GLS in the next hour or two. If this line
holds together, it may also impact LBX. Uncertainty lies in how
far inland this line will extend as it moves through, and this
could impact HOU if any further development occurs. This line
should be through the area by mid-morning. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into the
evening hours with sea breeze activity. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions to persist with winds light out of the SW becoming more
southerly through the afternoon and evening hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
Persistent low seas and light to occasionally moderate winds
driven by the daily seabreeze and landbreeze cycle are expected
to remain in place for the next several days. Though the afternoon
seabreeze has been fairly weak of late, we should see better
onshore flow return this weekend. Along with that, daily chance
of scattered showers and thunderstorms increase, peaking on
Saturday, but with daily rounds of isolated to scattered storms
continuing into next week. At the coast, tidal levels should
continue to be only modestly above astronomical norms with low rip
current threat.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 100 78 100 76 / 20 20 30 30
Houston (IAH) 98 79 98 79 / 20 20 30 30
Galveston (GLS) 93 83 93 82 / 20 10 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Luchs
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6355
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
The Eyewall
Matt Lanza
In brief: A moderate risk (3/4) remains posted today for flooding between Washington, DC and northern New Jersey with isolated 4-to-7-inch totals expected. The tropics remain quiet, and heading into the first half of August, it's not apparent that things are going to dramatically increase. We'll keep watching.
Fairly brief update today, but let's get to it.
Upgrade to paid
Flooding risk in the Mid-Atlantic
There continues to be a moderate risk (3/4) of flooding today in the Mid-Atlantic region.
A moderate risk for excessive rainfall exists from just south of DC to just west of New York. (NOAA WPC)
Modeling continues to strongly suggest the potential for isolated pockets of 4 to 5 inches or more of rainfall across the moderate risk area. Potential does exist for perhaps up to 7 inches of rain in some really isolated spots. Many areas will be fine today, but the entire region is at risk for something a little more serious, hence the moderate risk.
HREF model probability-matched mean rainfall forecast for Thursday showing pockets of high rainfall. (NOAA SPC)
Basically, it's a good day to make sure that you plan around the rain in the region. Maybe hang tight at your location for a bit if it's raining heavily. Have a way to receive flash flood warnings. And do your best to never drive through a flooded road, as the water is often deeper than you realize.
Tomorrow's rainfall risk shifts southward into the Southeast, mainly the Carolinas.
A slight risk (2/4) of heavy rainfall and flooding exists in the Carolinas for Friday. (NOAA WPC)
That risk will probably hold steady in that area for Saturday as well.
Tropics still mostly benign
Another day with no tropical threats on the map from the National Hurricane Center today. As all the thunderstorms in the Southeast begin to push offshore, there is a very, very slight risk that something may try to briefly spin up and head out to sea from there. But those odds look quite low.
Overall, the Basin looks about average for this time of year right now. Over the next couple weeks, I'm not convinced it's going to get more favorable. Of course, given that climatology begins to ramp up in August, that should still mean we see something at some point in the next 2 to 3 weeks. That's just a given. But in terms of getting a lot of activity, significant activity, etc., I'm not sure I see the background state of the Atlantic cooperating in a significant way right now.
If you want to look out far in time, we can grab the European model's subseasonal outlook for tropical storms.
The odds of a tropical storm per the Euro weeklies yesterday is highest off the East Coast in mid-August. (ECMWF)
The odds of a tropical storm in mid-August (we're looking at the week of August 11th here) aren't exactly strong. Some European model data suggests perhaps something could emerge off the Eastern Seaboard, but the odds at this point remain below 30 percent, or close to normal for this time of year. Conditions may become a smidge more favorable by later August, but again, that should be expected in a normal hurricane season.
Matt Lanza
In brief: A moderate risk (3/4) remains posted today for flooding between Washington, DC and northern New Jersey with isolated 4-to-7-inch totals expected. The tropics remain quiet, and heading into the first half of August, it's not apparent that things are going to dramatically increase. We'll keep watching.
Fairly brief update today, but let's get to it.
Upgrade to paid
Flooding risk in the Mid-Atlantic
There continues to be a moderate risk (3/4) of flooding today in the Mid-Atlantic region.
A moderate risk for excessive rainfall exists from just south of DC to just west of New York. (NOAA WPC)
Modeling continues to strongly suggest the potential for isolated pockets of 4 to 5 inches or more of rainfall across the moderate risk area. Potential does exist for perhaps up to 7 inches of rain in some really isolated spots. Many areas will be fine today, but the entire region is at risk for something a little more serious, hence the moderate risk.
HREF model probability-matched mean rainfall forecast for Thursday showing pockets of high rainfall. (NOAA SPC)
Basically, it's a good day to make sure that you plan around the rain in the region. Maybe hang tight at your location for a bit if it's raining heavily. Have a way to receive flash flood warnings. And do your best to never drive through a flooded road, as the water is often deeper than you realize.
Tomorrow's rainfall risk shifts southward into the Southeast, mainly the Carolinas.
A slight risk (2/4) of heavy rainfall and flooding exists in the Carolinas for Friday. (NOAA WPC)
That risk will probably hold steady in that area for Saturday as well.
Tropics still mostly benign
Another day with no tropical threats on the map from the National Hurricane Center today. As all the thunderstorms in the Southeast begin to push offshore, there is a very, very slight risk that something may try to briefly spin up and head out to sea from there. But those odds look quite low.
Overall, the Basin looks about average for this time of year right now. Over the next couple weeks, I'm not convinced it's going to get more favorable. Of course, given that climatology begins to ramp up in August, that should still mean we see something at some point in the next 2 to 3 weeks. That's just a given. But in terms of getting a lot of activity, significant activity, etc., I'm not sure I see the background state of the Atlantic cooperating in a significant way right now.
If you want to look out far in time, we can grab the European model's subseasonal outlook for tropical storms.
The odds of a tropical storm per the Euro weeklies yesterday is highest off the East Coast in mid-August. (ECMWF)
The odds of a tropical storm in mid-August (we're looking at the week of August 11th here) aren't exactly strong. Some European model data suggests perhaps something could emerge off the Eastern Seaboard, but the odds at this point remain below 30 percent, or close to normal for this time of year. Conditions may become a smidge more favorable by later August, but again, that should be expected in a normal hurricane season.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6355
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
424
FXUS64 KHGX 311712
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1212 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
- Daily risk of showers/thunderstorms through early next week.
- Locally heavy rainfall is expected. There is a marginal risk of
excessive rain (Threat level 1 of 4) capable of localized
flooding both on Friday and Saturday across Southeast Texas.
- Next week features seasonably hot/humid conditions and a daily
risk of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
Through the weekend, southeast Texas will be under the influence
of a mid-level trough and deep tropical moisture. This will keep a
daily chance of at least isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend. Locally heavy
rainfall is likely. Therefore, we cannot rule out localized
flooding. Not every neighborhood will receive rainfall every day.
However, a weak frontal boundary is expected to push southward
into our region on Saturday, further enhancing LL lift. Therefore,
the best chance of more numerous thunderstorms is on Saturday.
By early next week, a ridge builds to our west while a trough digs
over the Mississippi River Valley. The influence of the trough may
continue the daily risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms
through Monday and Tuesday. Beyond then, the ridge may prove more
dominant, lowering rain chances and increasing temperatures.
Speaking of temperatures, we expect seasonably hot and humid
conditions. Forecast highs generally average in the mid 90s. But
highs will likely vary based off who gets shower/thunderstorm
activity. Drier sunnier spots will easily reach the upper 90s.
Areas that receive rainfall fairly early in the day and/or more
cloud cover could struggle to hit 90. Regardless, it will feel hot
and sticky outside. Specifically for today, temperatures could
surpass the 100 degree mark in the Brazos Valley due to the drier
air mass in place.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
All sites at VFR currently. A line of showers and thunderstorms
is moving into the Gulf Waters, though some of the line extends
inland and may impact GLS in the next hour or two. If this line
holds together, it may also impact LBX. Uncertainty lies in how
far inland this line will extend as it moves through, and this
could impact HOU if any further development occurs. This line
should be through the area by mid-morning. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into the
evening hours with sea breeze activity. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions to persist with winds light out of the SW becoming more
southerly through the afternoon and evening hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
Winds and seas are expected to be generally low through early next
week. However, there will also be a daily risk of showers and
thunderstorms. Locally heavy thunderstorms are likely. Higher
winds and rougher seas are possible in the vicinity of any
thunderstorms. Thunderstorm related winds can sometimes extend far
beyond the storm. Therefore, it is advised to frequently check the
forecast for updates.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 100 76 96 / 10 30 30 50
Houston (IAH) 79 98 79 97 / 10 50 40 60
Galveston (GLS) 83 93 82 91 / 20 50 30 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Self
FXUS64 KHGX 311712
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1212 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
- Daily risk of showers/thunderstorms through early next week.
- Locally heavy rainfall is expected. There is a marginal risk of
excessive rain (Threat level 1 of 4) capable of localized
flooding both on Friday and Saturday across Southeast Texas.
- Next week features seasonably hot/humid conditions and a daily
risk of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
Through the weekend, southeast Texas will be under the influence
of a mid-level trough and deep tropical moisture. This will keep a
daily chance of at least isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend. Locally heavy
rainfall is likely. Therefore, we cannot rule out localized
flooding. Not every neighborhood will receive rainfall every day.
However, a weak frontal boundary is expected to push southward
into our region on Saturday, further enhancing LL lift. Therefore,
the best chance of more numerous thunderstorms is on Saturday.
By early next week, a ridge builds to our west while a trough digs
over the Mississippi River Valley. The influence of the trough may
continue the daily risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms
through Monday and Tuesday. Beyond then, the ridge may prove more
dominant, lowering rain chances and increasing temperatures.
Speaking of temperatures, we expect seasonably hot and humid
conditions. Forecast highs generally average in the mid 90s. But
highs will likely vary based off who gets shower/thunderstorm
activity. Drier sunnier spots will easily reach the upper 90s.
Areas that receive rainfall fairly early in the day and/or more
cloud cover could struggle to hit 90. Regardless, it will feel hot
and sticky outside. Specifically for today, temperatures could
surpass the 100 degree mark in the Brazos Valley due to the drier
air mass in place.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
All sites at VFR currently. A line of showers and thunderstorms
is moving into the Gulf Waters, though some of the line extends
inland and may impact GLS in the next hour or two. If this line
holds together, it may also impact LBX. Uncertainty lies in how
far inland this line will extend as it moves through, and this
could impact HOU if any further development occurs. This line
should be through the area by mid-morning. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into the
evening hours with sea breeze activity. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions to persist with winds light out of the SW becoming more
southerly through the afternoon and evening hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025
Winds and seas are expected to be generally low through early next
week. However, there will also be a daily risk of showers and
thunderstorms. Locally heavy thunderstorms are likely. Higher
winds and rougher seas are possible in the vicinity of any
thunderstorms. Thunderstorm related winds can sometimes extend far
beyond the storm. Therefore, it is advised to frequently check the
forecast for updates.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 100 76 96 / 10 30 30 50
Houston (IAH) 79 98 79 97 / 10 50 40 60
Galveston (GLS) 83 93 82 91 / 20 50 30 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Self