Tropical Discussion 2025

[Scott747]

93l actually looks healthy all things considering and the center is beginning to dip a little sw as it makes its way across Florida.

Hurricane models suggested this since they started running. Main energy should stay to the n but if it does tug a little further she then it may make it a little further w.

Not enough to directly impact us except for perhaps the Golden Triangle. Might see some adjustments this evening.

[DoctorMu]

Still seeing a lot of retrograde flow in the Gulf...and movement of showers off the Gulf coast of Florida heading SW. The golden triangle is not a bad guess on Texas impacts. Just hoping it drifts our way for a few showers. The more disorganized the better.

Love the easterlies if they can be sustained. More Florida weather. A colleague who lived in Florida and I were discussing the more east coast/FL weather of late. Easterlies should also limit more Hill Country flooding. It's the EPAC moisture that crosses over the results in a deluge.

[DoctorMu]

Retrograde lemonade?

Forecast for LA. Don't count out some TX impacts.

[biggerbyte]

So there is no current model support for what I'm about to say. There is a possibility of a center relocation, if you want call it that tonight, much further southwest. Just thought I'd throw that out there.

[Rip76]

Retrograde lemonade?

Forecast for LA. Don't count out some TX impacts.

Retrograde Lemonade is a great band name.

[Stratton20]

Mid level center is over the water, id almost expect we are getting a reconnaissance flight sometime tommorow, given 93L’s small size, i wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if this organizes more than what the models see happening

[Ptarmigan]

Until something actually develops, everyone on the Gulf Coast should keep an eye on Invest 93L.

[tireman4]

As bad information on Invest 93L spreads, we lay it out straight, as well as look at Virginia flooding
One city has had 13 flash flood warnings and a flash flood emergency this month
The Eyewall and Matt Lanza
Jul 16






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In brief: Invest 93L is unlikely to develop much at all, but it remains a flooding risk for Louisiana heading toward Friday. We also take a closer look at flooding that has occurred in the Southside of Virginia, specifically near Petersburg.

Invest 93L
Before we begin on this disturbance, I am going to shout out a post at our Houston-focused site, Space City Weather. The amount of bad information on the northeast Gulf system that is coming from one specific source, TikTok, is almost incomprehensible. One of the main reasons our sites exist for Houston at SCW and here for others is to provide an honest forecast and information about weather from experts that are aligned with a mission of informing without being patronizing or condescending. When it's boring, we're boring. When things get interesting, we get interesting. We also want to make sure folks keep their eye on the ball. When it appears a storm is going to threaten southwest Florida and the media hasn't left Tampa, we want to highlight that. When a storm is a flooding threat and has no realistic chance of becoming a hurricane, we want to focus on that. So, thanks for reading, please keep spreading the word, and if you feel compelled or able, upgrade to a paid subscription to further support our work.

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Invest 93L did a good thing yesterday, coming off the Florida Peninsula farther north than expected. This will keep it closer to land and probably keep it from developing much, if at all.


Gulf satellite image showing Invest 93L in the northeast, very disorganized but producing some heavy thunderstorms. (Tropical Tidbits)
It's not really possible to pick out a true "center" on the satellite image, but it's somewhere near or south of Panama City. Intensity-wise, the forecast for 93L is pretty straightforward. The majority of modeling including the "corrected consensus approach" product that has had significant success in recent years keep this barely a tropical depression. Very few models bring 93L to tropical storm intensity. The NHC odds have held steady at 40%.

Let's talk rainfall, because that will continue to be the primary story here.


A moderate risk (3/4) exists for flash flooding in Louisiana on Friday. (NOAA WPC)
A moderate risk of excessive rainfall exists by Friday in Louisiana. The flash flood risk here seems a little less scary today, but it's nevertheless serious.


Rain totals through Monday morning should be on the order of 3 to 6 inches across much of Louisiana which could cause flooding. (Pivotal Weather)
The total rainfall forecasts seem to have backed off a little, now down to 3 to 6 inches across much of southern Louisiana for this event. Still, that may cause flooding and with locally higher amounts, locally more significant flooding remains a concern, primarily between tomorrow evening and Saturday. 93L should basically dissipate and get absorbed into the broader weather pattern over the Southeast once again by next week.

The Virginia Southside flooded multiple times
It's been a rough week just outside of Richmond, Virginia. Petersburg has been under 13 flash flood warnings this month. It finally broke yesterday with flash flood emergencies, significant flooding, a state of emergency, and a lot of frustration about systemic neglect of mitigation measures.


7 inches of rain more than usual have fallen so far this month in Petersburg, Virginia. (High Plains Regional Climate Center)
Some parts of the Southside of Virginia have seen north of 10 to 12 inches of rain this month, and it's taken a toll.


Rainfall so far this month south of Richmond and in the Petersburg and Colonial Heights areas has been remarkable. (NOAA)
For more reading on the problems in Petersburg, I'd suggest this from the Virginia Mercury.

More on this event from WRIC in Richmond as well.

And some food for thought here: The problems in Petersburg are a microcosm of the problems facing hundreds of cities in this country. Many are plagued by poor drainage during heavy rain and backlogs of projects that would help ease the problems. The cost to get these projects across the finish line would be astronomical, and with a moving target (heavier rainfall rates as the climate warms), there's no guarantee that even funding the wish lists of every community would lead to a successful outcome.

[DoctorMu]

Hurricane models see inroads of 93L/Dexter to east of I-45. Not unreasonable.

[tireman4]

Levi Cowan

[tireman4]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northeastern and north-central Gulf (AL93):
Surface and radar observations indicate that a westward-moving
broad area of low pressure is located along the coast of the
Florida Panhandle near Panama City. The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and located mainly south
and southwest of the center. This system is forecast to continue
moving westward across the northern portion of the Gulf through
tonight, reaching the coast of Louisiana by Thursday. If this system
moves far enough offshore, environmental conditions over the Gulf
appear generally favorable for additional development, and a
tropical depression could form over the next day or two before
the system moves fully inland by the end of the week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida through through today.
Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the
north-central Gulf Coast beginning late today and continuing through
Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued
by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather
Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[DoctorMu]

I-45 and east is going to see some rain tomorrow evening and Friday. [Cajun accent] Ah gahrohn-tee!

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24

[Stratton20]

GFS, Euro/ CMC all have 93L going inland and making one gigantic loop back into the gulf again in a week and getting pushed west again, 93L might be around the gulf coast for quite some time