TxLady wrote: ↑Tue Jul 08, 2025 3:08 pm
These daily Thunderstorms remind me so much of the early 1970's, growing up in South Houston. Our local swimming pool opened every day at 1:00 pm. It was staffed by our High School Football coach and lifeguards were the Football players. Every dang day, there would come a storm at around 2:00-3:00 pm. Of course, if there's even a hint of lightning or a dark suggestive cloud anywhere near the neighborhood...the pool opening would be delayed or cancelled. My sister and I were in Junior High/Early High School. Any day without swimming pool = no interaction with cute Football players!
Same thing with the summers in Texas City in the early 80’s. Almost a daily occurrence at the city swimming pool. 3pm like clockwork, dark clouds would roll in, it would get windy and then it would rain for about 30 min.
Then, sunny again.
TxLady wrote: ↑Tue Jul 08, 2025 3:08 pm
These daily Thunderstorms remind me so much of the early 1970's, growing up in South Houston. Our local swimming pool opened every day at 1:00 pm. It was staffed by our High School Football coach and lifeguards were the Football players. Every dang day, there would come a storm at around 2:00-3:00 pm. Of course, if there's even a hint of lightning or a dark suggestive cloud anywhere near the neighborhood...the pool opening would be delayed or cancelled. My sister and I were in Junior High/Early High School. Any day without swimming pool = no interaction with cute Football players!
Same thing with the summers in Texas City in the early 80’s. Almost a daily occurrence at the city swimming pool. 3pm like clockwork, dark clouds would roll in, it would get windy and then it would rain for about 30 min.
Then, sunny again.
The pools in NC would just reopen again after the near daily storm blew through.
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Tue Jul 08, 2025 1:35 pm
Never, never underestimate warm core storms, especially at night. That's why old salt Mets are an incredibly invaluable resource. They've seen these systems, whether Atlantic or EPAC or Gulf, thwart the models and young buck Mets.
OK, we have the Louisiana wave in SETX and drying radar in the Hill Country at last.
I'm glad to see the NWS forecast leaning heavily with the Euro. College Station has a reasonable shot of rain every day heading into mid July - a rare commodity. And I'm here for that.
Exactly. Core rains are notoriously difficult to forecast. Core rains are not just a Texas problem. I have seen with Hurricane Camille in Virginia and Super Typhoon Nina in China.
Yes - Helene and a litany of Atlantic Coast hurricanes when moving north into the Appalachian Mountains.
Them too. I read that Camille may have dumped up to 46 inches of rain or higher. Super Typhoon Nina caused the Banqiao Dam to fail and claimed over 100,000 lives. Nina dumped up over 64 inches of rain on Banqiao Dam.
- Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms can be
expected each day through the upcoming weekend.
- Isolated strong thunderstorms will result in gusty winds and
periods of heavy rainfall and could lead to ponding of water
along roadways, as well as minor flooding over poor drainage and
low lying areas.
- Daily high temperatures will continue to be at or just below
seasonal temperatures through the weekend. Regardless, it is
summer in Southeast TX and technically still hot. Make sure to
take breaks if spending time or working outside and stay
hydrated.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast for this
issuance.
We will likely continue to see daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms during the next several days. This is mainly in
response to Southeast TX being wedged between a high pressure
systems situated over SW CONUS and another high pressure system
situated over the eastern Gulf, allowing for weaknesses to pass
overhead from time to time. The weather pattern will generally be
a "rinse and repeat" with passing showers possible over the waters
and coastal locations during the early to mid morning hours,
followed by stronger and more extensive development of showers and
thunderstorms further inland during the mid morning to late
afternoon hours as diurnal heating and instability increases. The
PWs on Thursday are expected to stay in the 1.8" to 2.0" range,
which could result in pocket of moderate to heavy rain with
rainfall rates of 2-3" per hour in some locations. This could lead
to ponding of water along roadways, as well as minor flooding in
areas of poor drainage. The heavy downpours may occur during the
afternoon commute, thus, make sure to check the radar and traffic
conditions before you depart to your destination. Remember, never
cross flooded roads.
Moisture is expected decrease on Friday, as drier air moves into
the region and could lead to lower PoPs. Regardless, we can at
least expect isolated showers and thunderstorms during the daytime
hours. For the upcoming weekend, our rain chances look to
increase again as an upper level trough moves across the Southern
Plains and PWs rise back to 1.8" to 2.0" which may result in
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. A similar
weather pattern can be expected on Sunday. Please be mindful of
how the weekend weather can affect your travel. Also, if you or
your family are planning to spend time or work outdoors or visit
our local beaches, keep in mind that lightning can strike many
miles away from the storm. When thunder roars, head indoors.
One good thing about the rain and cloud coverage, is that it`s
keeping our high temperatures at or just below seasonal norms.
Thus, we are expected our highs to remain mostly in the lower 90s
through the weekend. From Monday into Tuesday, however, we may see
a gradual decrease in shower and thunderstorm activity as another
pocket of drier air passes through. This could lead to higher
temperatures, which some spots possibly seeing highs in the upper
90s. As for our low temperatures, expect them to be between the
mid to upper 70s inland and the upper 70s to lower 80s for the
coastal locations.
Cotto
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025
Widely scattered shra may impact our northern terminals (CLL,
UTS) this morning. Spotty shra offshore expected to move towards
the coast as the morning progresses. By late morning and early
afternoon, isolated to scattered shra/tsra expected to develop
in the vicinity of the sea breeze. Not much model agreement
regarding coverage with some suggesting scattered activity while
others calling for more isolated shra/tsra. Prevailing SW wind
develops this morning, then veers to the S and potentially SE this
afternoon. May have MVFR cigs tomorrow morning in the Brazos
Valley. For now, CLL TAF shows lower end VFR for tomorrow morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025
Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and 2 to 4 foot seas
will prevail for the next several days. Periods of showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated each day. We can expect to see
showers and thunderstorms developing along the Gulf waters and
coastal locations during the morning to early afternoon hours,
followed by less activity during the mid afternoon to evening
hours as storms move further inland. However, a strong storm or
two cannot be discarded during that timeframe, in particular over
the bays. Stronger storms could lead to strong gusty winds and
outflow boundaries and could elevate seas at times.
Along the Gulf facing beaches, persistent onshore flow will
result in a moderate risk of rip currents. High risk of rip
currents could occur at times. Please follow the beach flag
conditions, and always swim near a lifeguard.
Camille took a right turn in Kentucky and savaged the Appalachians and Blue Ridge mountains in Virginia. Cat 5 storm energy/warm core + mountains and rocky soil = major flooding.
-Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected this
afternoon, mainly east of I-45. The best rain and storm chances
return this weekend.
- A daily risk of showers and storms continues in the next 7 days,
though coverage is expected to be less as we head into the upcoming
week.
- Daily high temperatures will continue to be at or just below
seasonal temperatures through the weekend, before gradually
warming up next week. Remember to keep practicing heat safety!
Make sure to take breaks if spending time or working outside and
stay hydrated.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025
A notable shift in the weather pattern this afternoon compared to
yesterday. A drier airmass has filtered in from the northwest,
leading to a significant drop in rain and storm chances. This drier
influence is evident across areas west of I-45, where skies have
become less active and mostly sunny. Taking a look at the latest
Blended TPW satellite, a corridor of higher PWs is still persisting
in areas roughly east of I-45, with values at or above 2.0 inches.
This pocket of higher moisture combined with the peak of daytime
heating will provide enough fuel to support isolated to scattered
convection through sunset. Will continue with 15 to 30% of PoPs
mainly east of I-45, including the greater Houston area through
early this evening.
Southeast Texas remains sandwiched between two areas of high
pressure aloft. Adding to this set up, a surface high pressure
remains anchored across the eastern/central Gulf, maintaining a
steady supply of warm and humid southerly flow across the region.
This pattern will maintain largely similar weather conditions each
day, with a daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and storms
and warm conditions. Friday is expected to be similar to today
(Thursday) with the best rain/storm chances developing across the
coastal counties and over the Gulf waters. Remember, continuous
southerly and humid flow can enhance moisture convergence and
trigger showers and storms, mainly during the afternoon heating.
A slightly more active pattern is expected this weekend, with an
uptick in moisture, and rain and storm chances. Increasing moisture
advection from the Gulf and the development of some trough weakness
aloft will be enough to spark showers and thunderstorms throughout
the day.
Beyond the weekend, the long-range forecast indicates a shift
towards hotter conditions and slightly lower precipitation
chances. The ridge to our east is projected to strengthen and
shift westward, directly influencing Southeast TX. So, ridging
aloft usually means hot conditions. In fact, temperatures are
expected to be near the 90th percentile of climatology based on
NAEFS and GEFS (mostly after Tuesday). Overall, expect highs
mainly in the mid to upper 90s, with heat indices close to
advisory levels. In terms of precipitation, while more stable air
will move in, persistent southerly surface flow will keep low-
level moisture and convergence across parts of the region,
particularly in the afternoons. 15 to 30% of PoPs are progged each
day.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025
Widely scattered shra may impact our northern terminals (CLL,
UTS) this morning. Spotty shra offshore expected to move towards
the coast as the morning progresses. By late morning and early
afternoon, isolated to scattered shra/tsra expected to develop
in the vicinity of the sea breeze. Not much model agreement
regarding coverage with some suggesting scattered activity while
others calling for more isolated shra/tsra. Prevailing SW wind
develops this morning, then veers to the S and potentially SE this
afternoon. May have MVFR cigs tomorrow morning in the Brazos
Valley. For now, CLL TAF shows lower end VFR for tomorrow morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025
Surface high pressure remains strong across the central Gulf. This
pattern will continue to bring south to southwest light to moderate
winds and seas around 2 to 4 ft across the Upper TX coast over the
next several days. A daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms is also expected. Most of this activity will occur in
the mornings offshore and along the coast and bays (further inland)
after midday. Gusty winds can be expected around any storms. This
weather pattern is expected to continue over the next 7 days.
NWS appears to be largely asleep. 40% chance of seabreeze showers today - they are cranking up. 50-60% of rain tomorrow with the short wave moving through. Drier air and weak ridging Monday and Tuesday. The mild ridging breaks down next by Thursday. There *could* be another opportunity of rain. Then a bit more ridging on the southern flank.
Survive and advance going into late July and August.
-Isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon should
gradually taper off from south to north near sunset.
- Increasing rain and storm chances are expected this weekend with
the best chances in the afternoon. A few strong storms will be
possible.
- The pattern of daily showers and storms is expected to persist
into early next week before a gradual decrease in rain chances and a
potential increase in heat later in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025
Showers and storms are continuing to develop across portions of
Southeast Texas this afternoon. This activity is fueled by a
combination of increased moisture, ongoing moisture convergence at
the surface, favorable low to mid-lapse rates (~ 7 degC/km) and
passing weak shortwaves at mid-upper levels. Latest soundings and
observations show PWs at or above 2.0 inches around these storms,
suggesting ample moisture streaming in from the Gulf. Given the
amount of dry air aloft, evaporational cooling becomes more
efficient, producing gusty winds with the strongest storms this
afternoon. This activity will continue from south to north this
afternoon, ending near sunset. A muggy and warm night is anticipated
with a few lingering showers, especially over the coastal waters.
Saturday and Sunday bring increasing rain and storm chances across
most of the region. Southeast TX will remain positioned between two
ridges aloft, and some trough weakness over the area. Forcing aloft
increases a bit with an approaching trough from the west.
Furthermore, persistent southerly surface winds will continue to
increase moisture advection across the region with high PWs. With
these ingredients in place, scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the day. Uncertainty in
coverage, on the other hand, is still moderate to high. Forecast
soundings continue to suggest a layer of drier air still filtering
in from the west. This could lead to lower precipitation chances
and/or less widespread coverage. As of now, have continued with 50
to 70% chance of PoPs for both Saturday and Sunday, with the
greatest occurring in the afternoon due to peak daytime heating.
Next week will see a transition in the weather pattern with drier
and hotter conditions. The ridge to our east will strengthen as
the surface high shifts westward into our region. This pattern
will bring a more dominant subsiding airmass. However, we are not
expecting a completely dry forecast. A persistent onshore flow
from the Gulf will continue to advect ample moisture. This surge
in moisture combined with diurnal heating will support scattered
showers and thunderstorms at least through Tuesday. Isolated heavy
downpours and gusty winds are possible, mainly in the afternoons.
By mid-week, increased subsidence and compressed air will result in
hot conditions and less convective development. Ensemble tables
mean, particularly from the NAEFS and GEFS models, continues to
suggest temperatures near the 90th percentile of climatology for
Wednesday and Thursday. [Boo!] This is translated to highs in the mid to
upper 90s. Heat indices near the advisory levels will be possible.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025
Spotty showers expected this morning, mostly south of I-10. Any
localized sub-VFR conditions should trend VFR by 15Z. Isolated to
scattered shra/tsra expected late morning into the afternoon
today. S to SE winds expected to increase and become gusty at
times, possibly gusting over 20 knots. Sustained winds are
expected to generally be in the 10-15 knot range. Shra/tsra
activity will diminish this evening along with decreasing winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025
Light to moderate south to southeast winds with gusts from 15 to 20
knots will persist across the Upper TX coast within the next 7-days.
This persistent onshore flow is due to a sfc high pressure anchored
across the eastern/central Gulf. This pattern will continue to bring
more moisture inland, and a daily risk of showers and
thunderstorms. Therefore, expect scattered activity this
afternoon, before ending near sunset. Rain and storm chances
increase throughout the weekend as a disturbance moves over
central/southeast TX. Scattered to widespread activity can be
anticipated both Saturday and Sunday. Gusty winds and building
seas are possible near any thunderstorms. Seas will generally
remain 2 to 4 ft over the next several days, approaching 5 ft
offshore during the weekend. Onshore winds along with isolated to
scattered showers and storms can be expected at least early next
week.
Beach conditions: Use extra caution this weekend as there is an
increased risk of rip currents along all Gulf-facing beaches. Always
follow beach flag systems, swim near a lifeguard and away from
piers and jetties.
Euro doesn't see a much ridging until the 19th, and it's mostly south of us.
GFS has stronger ridging Thursday on. I think NWS may be integrating too much GFS in. They have upper 90s for us late next week. Euro and Euro AI are a few degrees cooler in the 92°F - 96°F.
The following week through looks damn hot across the board though.
My weather app and TWC have low to mid 90s next week. With cuts at NWS now and to come...unfortunately, the phone app forecasts have been a little better than GFS and NWS..
Pull for a more Euro solution in the next 10 days and hope the DR doesn't try to get established after that.
