July 2025

[Rip76]

Pretty nasty storm in the Cypress/290 area.

[tireman4]

322
FXUS64 KHGX 031748
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

- Scattered showers and isolated storms today; more notable rain
chances return Sunday into next week.

- 4th of July: Isolated to scattered showers with a storm or two
possible in the late morning/afternoon, rain chances trending
down by fireworks showtime.

- Hot temperatures persist with highs in the 90s and heat indices
in the 100s.

- Next plume of Saharan dust arrives Friday and lasts through the
weekend...another plume after the middle of next week.

- Early indications of widespread temperatures in the UPPER 90s
after the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

If you have any outdoor plans either today or on the 4th of July,
you`ll want to read this as the forecast has trended a bit more
rainy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are mainly west
of I-45 around noontime today, and this is courtesy of a mid level
disturbance that has worked its way underneath the ridge overhead.
Combine that lifting mechanism with PW values near or over the 90th
percentile (~2.08") and there ya go! 12Z CAMs reflect these
showers/storms lasting through the afternoon before tapering off
going into the evening hours. Coverage should generally remain
greater west of I-45 due to closer proximity to a 25-30 kt LLJ
currently over central TX. Going into Friday, we still have lift
from embedded shortwaves combining with the elevated moisture along
with that LLJ over central TX...so we`ll see a bit of a repeat. 12Z
CAMs are a bit more sparse on the coverage with the most activity
generally occuring between 2PM-7PM, so keep that in mind if you`ll
be outdoors for the 4th of July. We`re not anticipating any of these
showers resulting in a washout of festivities, but you will likely
want to bring a poncho or umbrella to stay dry. On the plus side,
this means that high temperatures both today and on Friday will only
top out in the upper 80s/low 90s. This is also a good time to
mention that patchy fog will be possible tonight, especially for
those that receive rain today. I`m not too confident on it though as
upper level clouds will remain in place overnight and that should
inhibit the fog from becoming too widespread.

Over the weekend, temperatures rise into the mid 90s as rain chances
briefly trend down. Rain chances return on Sunday as mid level high
pressure slides off to the west allowing for various disturbances to
drift into the area. A coastal trough looks to also come into play
some time next week as well, so for this timeframe the best rain
chances will be along and south of the I-10 corridor. After midweek,
that mid level high strengthens out west increasing 500mb heights
over our area. While that occurs, an 850mb high pressure settles in
over the Gulf which will establish southwesterly flow aloft. 850mb
temperatures climb to near or over the 90th percentile leading to
quite the warming trend going into the end of the week. There are
early indications that much of the area will top out in the upper
90s with heat indices well into the 100s. It is summertime after all
and it hasn`t been that bad so far! The City of Houston has seen
less than 10 days so far this year with high temperatures above
95F, but we will likely add onto those numbers next week.

Continue to keep heat safety in mind: know the signs of heat related
illnesses, stay hydrated (with water), take frequent breaks from the
heat, wear loose/light-colored clothing and sunscreen, and ALWAYS
LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as
well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is
too hot for their paws.

While I still have y`all`s attention, let`s talk about dust! The
next plume of Saharan dust will move in late Friday lasting through
Sunday and then there will be another plume moving in just after
the middle of next week.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 547 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Weak showers are currently moving in across the north/northeast
early today, and may bring light rain at times throughout the
morning. Another cluster of showers/storms should develop west of
the city towards central/southern Texas during the afternoon. A
few thunderstorms could develop during this period, though
coverage and confidence remains too low still to warrant a mention
in the TAFs. Rain chances taper off in the evening with light
southerly winds prevailing overnight. Isolated patchy fog will be
possible Friday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will dominate
the TAF period.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Generally light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas
will prevail throughout the week. Isolated showers/storms will be
possible through the end of the work week with the next best rain
chances returning late Sunday into next week. The next plume of
Saharan dust is expected to arrive on Friday and persist
throughout the weekend leading to another round of hazy skies.

Batiste

Beach conditions: Use caution heading to the beach as a moderate
risk of rip currents along all Gulf-facing beaches continues through
Saturday. Always swim near a lifeguard and avoid swimming near piers
and jetties.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 89 76 92 / 20 20 20 20
Houston (IAH) 78 90 78 93 / 10 30 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 83 89 83 89 / 10 20 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Batiste

[MontgomeryCoWx]

On the Robertson side of OSR the next few days.. getting good rain in the Brazos Valley

[Cpv17]

Once again, nothing out here.

[Kludge]

322
FXUS64 KHGX 031748
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1248 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

" the forecast has trended a bit more
rainy."

Ummm.... the forcast as of Tuesday morning mentioned no rain for the next several days north of I-10. We're at one inch so far today.

That's like saying Musk has a bit more money than he had a few years ago.

[Pas_Bon]

Barely a freaking DROP in League City. Dry slotted the entire time. Ugh!!!!

[DoctorMu]

It’s pretty hot out there cutting 3 weeks worth of thick green grass. I’m glad it’s 87 not 97

Good thing it didn't rain much.

[DoctorMu]

On the Robertson side of OSR the next few days.. getting good rain in the Brazos Valley

Partly sunny until about 3 pm. Then showers moved in. And actually more than a trace this time.

Will take every day until CFB season.

https://youtu.be/3qwRs9mJmag?si=58dwX1yJtCijOl1m

[jasons2k]

Picked-up a couple of inches here. For awhile, it rained as hard as it could. 6” - 9” hourly rain rates. Still nice and mild here. About to put a 15lb. brisket on the egg for tomorrow.

My weather station says “It’s raining cats and dogs” haha

[Ptarmigan]

Picked-up a couple of inches here. For awhile, it rained as hard as it could. 6” - 9” hourly rain rates. Still nice and mild here. About to put a 15lb. brisket on the egg for tomorrow.

My weather station says “It’s raining cats and dogs” haha

That is some intense rainfall!

[Ptarmigan]

Central Texas could see heavy rain tonight. I saw forecast models showing some areas could see a foot of rain.
https://www.weather.gov/ewx/forecasts

Code: Select all

Forecast Discussion

                        
736
FXUS64 KEWX 040217 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
917 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Updated the Flood Watch to include Bexar, Kendall, Gillespie, and
Llano Counties. The Flood Watch is in effect through 7 AM Friday.

Abundant tropical moisture continues to be pulled across the local
area this evening and stays through the overnight hours. A low level
jet is forecast to increase through the period and helps with the
development of new cells which are expected to be heavy rain
producers with precipitable water values ranging from 2 to 2.5
inches. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated 5 to 7 inches
are possible across the Flood Watch area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Scattered shower activity has been ongoing across South-Central
Texas throughout the late morning and early afternoon, with a
gradual increase in coverage. A substantial plume of deep tropical
moisture continues to stream north across South-Central Texas,
characterized by unseasonably moist precipitable water values as
high as about 2.4 inches. The 12Z Del Rio upper-air sounding this
morning observed a PW of 2.31 inches, which is near daily record
high values. The axis of a negatively tilted mid-level trough most
readily apparent on 700mb analyses is beginning to move poleward
towards the Edwards Plateau, leading to rounds of shower activity
throughout South-Central Texas into tomorrow as the advancing trough
prompts the ascent of moist air. A mesoscale convective vortex over
the Big Bend area has also enhanced moisture advection into our
region.

Observed and simulated vertical profiles show an environment
presently conducive to heavy rain, supporting 1 to 2 inch per hour
rain rates. Given the broad region of rising air and lack of
dominant surface boundaries, shower activity looks to remain widely
distributed across South-Central Texas with sufficient instability
for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Strong gusts of 40
to 50 mph are also possible as the heavy rain rates drag down cooler
air aloft. Cold pools expanding under weak deep-layer flow may
become a focusing mechanism for concentrating a few clusters of
showers and storms as depicted on some of the high-resolution
mesoscale guidance, and the heaviest rain totals may be associated
with these slow-moving clusters. Models remain in disagreement over
the placement of the heaviest rain totals, though the greatest
rainfall potential this afternoon into tonight is over the Highway
90 corridor, southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. Rainfall
totals of 1 to 3 inches appear likely, but locally higher amounts
upwards of 5 to 7 inches could materialize if slow-moving storms
begin to cluster. Given the heavy rainfall potential, some flooding
is possible. A Flood Watch is now in effect through 7 AM Friday
morning for the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country,
where the intersection of higher forecast rainfall amounts and
rainfall from the past few days is most evident. While the greatest
concentration of modeled precipitation is in the aforementioned
areas, the highest rain amounts could shift depending on where
storms aggregate, and expansion towards the I-35 corridor is
possible later this evening into the overnight as the trough moves
gradually east.

Coverage of showers and storms should begin to decrease Friday as
the axis of the trough swings out of our area. However, the
environment continues to support isolated showers favoring mostly
the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country as the moist tropical
airmass remains in place. Additional shower development could also
occur along convergent flow through the Coastal Plains towards the I-
35 corridor. Cloud cover and rain-cooled air will support
temperatures near to below average for this time of year. Highs in
the 80s to low 90s are expected with lows in the mid 70s.

&&

[Cpv17]

Central Texas could see heavy rain tonight. I saw forecast models showing some areas could see a foot of rain.
https://www.weather.gov/ewx/forecasts

Code: Select all

Forecast Discussion

                        
736
FXUS64 KEWX 040217 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
917 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Updated the Flood Watch to include Bexar, Kendall, Gillespie, and
Llano Counties. The Flood Watch is in effect through 7 AM Friday.

Abundant tropical moisture continues to be pulled across the local
area this evening and stays through the overnight hours. A low level
jet is forecast to increase through the period and helps with the
development of new cells which are expected to be heavy rain
producers with precipitable water values ranging from 2 to 2.5
inches. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated 5 to 7 inches
are possible across the Flood Watch area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Scattered shower activity has been ongoing across South-Central
Texas throughout the late morning and early afternoon, with a
gradual increase in coverage. A substantial plume of deep tropical
moisture continues to stream north across South-Central Texas,
characterized by unseasonably moist precipitable water values as
high as about 2.4 inches. The 12Z Del Rio upper-air sounding this
morning observed a PW of 2.31 inches, which is near daily record
high values. The axis of a negatively tilted mid-level trough most
readily apparent on 700mb analyses is beginning to move poleward
towards the Edwards Plateau, leading to rounds of shower activity
throughout South-Central Texas into tomorrow as the advancing trough
prompts the ascent of moist air. A mesoscale convective vortex over
the Big Bend area has also enhanced moisture advection into our
region.

Observed and simulated vertical profiles show an environment
presently conducive to heavy rain, supporting 1 to 2 inch per hour
rain rates. Given the broad region of rising air and lack of
dominant surface boundaries, shower activity looks to remain widely
distributed across South-Central Texas with sufficient instability
for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Strong gusts of 40
to 50 mph are also possible as the heavy rain rates drag down cooler
air aloft. Cold pools expanding under weak deep-layer flow may
become a focusing mechanism for concentrating a few clusters of
showers and storms as depicted on some of the high-resolution
mesoscale guidance, and the heaviest rain totals may be associated
with these slow-moving clusters. Models remain in disagreement over
the placement of the heaviest rain totals, though the greatest
rainfall potential this afternoon into tonight is over the Highway
90 corridor, southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. Rainfall
totals of 1 to 3 inches appear likely, but locally higher amounts
upwards of 5 to 7 inches could materialize if slow-moving storms
begin to cluster. Given the heavy rainfall potential, some flooding
is possible. A Flood Watch is now in effect through 7 AM Friday
morning for the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country,
where the intersection of higher forecast rainfall amounts and
rainfall from the past few days is most evident. While the greatest
concentration of modeled precipitation is in the aforementioned
areas, the highest rain amounts could shift depending on where
storms aggregate, and expansion towards the I-35 corridor is
possible later this evening into the overnight as the trough moves
gradually east.

Coverage of showers and storms should begin to decrease Friday as
the axis of the trough swings out of our area. However, the
environment continues to support isolated showers favoring mostly
the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country as the moist tropical
airmass remains in place. Additional shower development could also
occur along convergent flow through the Coastal Plains towards the I-
35 corridor. Cloud cover and rain-cooled air will support
temperatures near to below average for this time of year. Highs in
the 80s to low 90s are expected with lows in the mid 70s.

&&

It’s verifying.

[Cromagnum]

Kerrville area with a historic disastrous flood. The Guadalupe is at record levels. Reports of people trapped on roofs all over the place.

[tireman4]

Flash Flood Emergency on the Guadalupe near Comfort.

[tireman4]

Today's Forecast