July 2025
Assume bleak in CLL for July, August. Hope for a backdoor front or tropical moisture shunt.
Halfway through the year already.
Crazy groovy tornado that's been making the rounds on social media.
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1CKitzsxbv/
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1CKitzsxbv/
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6253
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
907
FXUS64 KHGX 011117
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
617 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
- The pattern of widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms is
over, but still could see an isolated afternoon shower or storm
over the next few days.
- Temperatures are on a warming trend with high temperatures
expected to be in the mid to upper 90s by the end of the week.
- Hazy skies persist as a layer of Saharan Dust moves over the
region.
- Got plans for July 4th? Make sure to stay hydrated and apply
sunscreen if hanging out in the sun.
Fowler
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Forecast remains on track, but nudged POPs up in the southern metro
area later this afternoon. The last 10 runs of the HRRR have consistently
shown a small cluster of storms pop up around the Houston Ship
Channel/downtown area in the 2-5pm timeframe and probably worth
the mention considering the population and possible impact to the
late afternoon commute. 47
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
The afternoon thunderstorms we experienced earlier had some oomph
to them with rain rates approaching 2-4" per hour at times - but
luckily they had enough movement to not cause any significant
flooding concerns. There will be a slight chance of isolated
showers or thunderstorms through at least midweek along and south
of the I- 10 corridor, but coverage and intensity of these storms
will much less compared to the past several days as high pressure
builds overhead. However, this high pressure building overhead
will also lead to rising temperatures through the remainder of the
week. Temperatures are expected to peak Friday or Saturday with
highs in the mid to upper 90s inland, and low to mid 90s along the
coast. Expect continued hazy skies through this week as surges of
Saharan Dust move through the region.
If you have outdoor plans for July 4th, make sure to stay hydrated,
take breaks in the shade or A/C, and apply sunscreen when outside.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Just some thin cirrus out there right now, but that has allowed
for temps to cool to the dewpoint at several locations allowing
for some patchy fog development. This should burn off a few hours
after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions should mostly prevail
today...but terminals around the metro area should be on the lookout
for some scattered pop-up tstms in the vicinity in the 20-23z
timeframe as consistently indicated by the HRRR model. Precip
should die off by early evening. SREF guidance indicates the potential
for some more fog development along the I-10/US59 corridor later
tonight...moreso just west of the I-45 terminals. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Light onshore winds between 5-10kt and low seas will persist through
this week. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible
through midweek, but chances are much lower than compared to the
past few days.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 73 95 75 / 10 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 95 75 95 76 / 30 10 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 80 90 81 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 011117
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
617 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
- The pattern of widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms is
over, but still could see an isolated afternoon shower or storm
over the next few days.
- Temperatures are on a warming trend with high temperatures
expected to be in the mid to upper 90s by the end of the week.
- Hazy skies persist as a layer of Saharan Dust moves over the
region.
- Got plans for July 4th? Make sure to stay hydrated and apply
sunscreen if hanging out in the sun.
Fowler
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Forecast remains on track, but nudged POPs up in the southern metro
area later this afternoon. The last 10 runs of the HRRR have consistently
shown a small cluster of storms pop up around the Houston Ship
Channel/downtown area in the 2-5pm timeframe and probably worth
the mention considering the population and possible impact to the
late afternoon commute. 47
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
The afternoon thunderstorms we experienced earlier had some oomph
to them with rain rates approaching 2-4" per hour at times - but
luckily they had enough movement to not cause any significant
flooding concerns. There will be a slight chance of isolated
showers or thunderstorms through at least midweek along and south
of the I- 10 corridor, but coverage and intensity of these storms
will much less compared to the past several days as high pressure
builds overhead. However, this high pressure building overhead
will also lead to rising temperatures through the remainder of the
week. Temperatures are expected to peak Friday or Saturday with
highs in the mid to upper 90s inland, and low to mid 90s along the
coast. Expect continued hazy skies through this week as surges of
Saharan Dust move through the region.
If you have outdoor plans for July 4th, make sure to stay hydrated,
take breaks in the shade or A/C, and apply sunscreen when outside.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Just some thin cirrus out there right now, but that has allowed
for temps to cool to the dewpoint at several locations allowing
for some patchy fog development. This should burn off a few hours
after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions should mostly prevail
today...but terminals around the metro area should be on the lookout
for some scattered pop-up tstms in the vicinity in the 20-23z
timeframe as consistently indicated by the HRRR model. Precip
should die off by early evening. SREF guidance indicates the potential
for some more fog development along the I-10/US59 corridor later
tonight...moreso just west of the I-45 terminals. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Light onshore winds between 5-10kt and low seas will persist through
this week. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible
through midweek, but chances are much lower than compared to the
past few days.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 73 95 75 / 10 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 95 75 95 76 / 30 10 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 80 90 81 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Clear Lake - SD - MN border over the weekend - a massive stove pipe tornado and roped in and out.. Reed and some other chasers were there. A bit of a late season traffic jam. A couple of houses were hit badly.Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Jun 30, 2025 10:23 pm Crazy groovy tornado that's been making the rounds on social media.
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1CKitzsxbv/
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6253
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
93
FXUS64 KHGX 011759
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1259 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
- Isolated showers/storms possible through midweek...rain chances
return late in the weekend into early next week.
- Temperatures on the rise throughout the week with mid to upper
90s towards the end of the week with heat indices in the triple
digits.
- Saharan dust leading to hazy skies will prevail throughout most
of the week.
- 4th of July forecast still looks hot and dry...no issues
anticipated for the evening firework shows, but please practice
heat safety.
Batiste
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
We`ve made it to the halfway point of 2025, and our prize will be an
increasing temperature trend that takes us into the holiday weekend.
There will continue to be the potential for isolated showers/storms
in the afternoon...and speaking of that let`s talk about that
potential for today. The HRRR continues to be consistent on
developing a few storms around the I-10 corridor generally between
3pm-8pm. It was right yesterday, so I don`t see any reason to not
believe it for today as well. Locally heavy downpours will again be
possible and higher rainfall rates could lead to brief periods of
minor street flooding in vulnerable areas. These chances for
isolated showers/storms generally continue throughout the week, but
they`ll mainly be around 10% as ridging aloft remains in control and
the main ridge axis slides in. The decreased rain chances means that
we`ll an increasing temperature trend...and yep it is going to be
hot on the 4th of July!
850 mb temperatures by midweek will be around the 90th percentile
and that`ll pair with the persistent layer of Saharan dust. By the
end of the work week, high temperatures will be in the mid to upper
90s. Heat indices will be well into the triple digits. Towards the
end of the work week and into the weekend, heat indices will top out
in the 104-107F range. This is below our threshold for a Heat
Advisory, but with an outdoor focused holiday coming up...heat
safety should be at the top of your minds. On the 4th of July in
particular, high temperatures will be mainly in the mid 90s with a
few upper 90s mixed in. There will be a southerly wind around 5-10
mph, so not much help there. We already talked about the heat
indices, so you know it`ll be humid out there. Be sure to practice
heat safety: know the signs of heat related illnesses, stay hydrated
(with water), take frequent breaks from the heat, wear loose/light-
colored clothing and sunscreen, and ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your
vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too
hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws.
Temperatures will still be in the upper 80s/low 90s at the start of
most of the firework shows in the evening.
The current plume of Saharan dust will drift eastward out of the
area by Thursday, and we`re looking at another plume moving in late
Friday and remaining overhead throughout the weekend. The next plume
appears that it`ll have lighter concentrations of dust compared to
the one that`s currently ongoing. Speaking of the weekend,
temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 90s. On Sunday,
model guidance hints that we`ll be wedged between two mid-level
areas of high pressure. This break in subsidence looks to give us
our next mentionable chance for showers/storms. The mid-level high
to our west becomes the stronger of the two going into early next
week and leaves us on the eastern periphery. That should allow for
intermittent rounds of shortwaves/upper level disturbances leading
to elevated chances for showers/storms.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Just some thin cirrus out there right now, but that has allowed
for temps to cool to the dewpoint at several locations allowing
for some patchy fog development. This should burn off a few hours
after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions should mostly prevail
today...but terminals around the metro area should be on the lookout
for some scattered pop-up tstms in the vicinity in the 20-23z
timeframe as consistently indicated by the HRRR model. Precip
should die off by early evening. SREF guidance indicates the potential
for some more fog development along the I-10/US59 corridor later
tonight...moreso just west of the I-45 terminals. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Generally light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas
will prevail throughout the week. Isolated showers/storms will be
possible through midweek, then the next notable rain chances will be
late in the weekend into next week. Conditions will be hot and dry
for the 4th of July. Saharan dust will continue to produce hazy
skies through midweek, and another plume is expected to move in
Friday and prevail over the weekend.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 94 75 94 / 0 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 76 95 76 95 / 0 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 90 81 90 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 011759
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1259 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
- Isolated showers/storms possible through midweek...rain chances
return late in the weekend into early next week.
- Temperatures on the rise throughout the week with mid to upper
90s towards the end of the week with heat indices in the triple
digits.
- Saharan dust leading to hazy skies will prevail throughout most
of the week.
- 4th of July forecast still looks hot and dry...no issues
anticipated for the evening firework shows, but please practice
heat safety.
Batiste
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
We`ve made it to the halfway point of 2025, and our prize will be an
increasing temperature trend that takes us into the holiday weekend.
There will continue to be the potential for isolated showers/storms
in the afternoon...and speaking of that let`s talk about that
potential for today. The HRRR continues to be consistent on
developing a few storms around the I-10 corridor generally between
3pm-8pm. It was right yesterday, so I don`t see any reason to not
believe it for today as well. Locally heavy downpours will again be
possible and higher rainfall rates could lead to brief periods of
minor street flooding in vulnerable areas. These chances for
isolated showers/storms generally continue throughout the week, but
they`ll mainly be around 10% as ridging aloft remains in control and
the main ridge axis slides in. The decreased rain chances means that
we`ll an increasing temperature trend...and yep it is going to be
hot on the 4th of July!
850 mb temperatures by midweek will be around the 90th percentile
and that`ll pair with the persistent layer of Saharan dust. By the
end of the work week, high temperatures will be in the mid to upper
90s. Heat indices will be well into the triple digits. Towards the
end of the work week and into the weekend, heat indices will top out
in the 104-107F range. This is below our threshold for a Heat
Advisory, but with an outdoor focused holiday coming up...heat
safety should be at the top of your minds. On the 4th of July in
particular, high temperatures will be mainly in the mid 90s with a
few upper 90s mixed in. There will be a southerly wind around 5-10
mph, so not much help there. We already talked about the heat
indices, so you know it`ll be humid out there. Be sure to practice
heat safety: know the signs of heat related illnesses, stay hydrated
(with water), take frequent breaks from the heat, wear loose/light-
colored clothing and sunscreen, and ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your
vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too
hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws.
Temperatures will still be in the upper 80s/low 90s at the start of
most of the firework shows in the evening.
The current plume of Saharan dust will drift eastward out of the
area by Thursday, and we`re looking at another plume moving in late
Friday and remaining overhead throughout the weekend. The next plume
appears that it`ll have lighter concentrations of dust compared to
the one that`s currently ongoing. Speaking of the weekend,
temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 90s. On Sunday,
model guidance hints that we`ll be wedged between two mid-level
areas of high pressure. This break in subsidence looks to give us
our next mentionable chance for showers/storms. The mid-level high
to our west becomes the stronger of the two going into early next
week and leaves us on the eastern periphery. That should allow for
intermittent rounds of shortwaves/upper level disturbances leading
to elevated chances for showers/storms.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Just some thin cirrus out there right now, but that has allowed
for temps to cool to the dewpoint at several locations allowing
for some patchy fog development. This should burn off a few hours
after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions should mostly prevail
today...but terminals around the metro area should be on the lookout
for some scattered pop-up tstms in the vicinity in the 20-23z
timeframe as consistently indicated by the HRRR model. Precip
should die off by early evening. SREF guidance indicates the potential
for some more fog development along the I-10/US59 corridor later
tonight...moreso just west of the I-45 terminals. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Generally light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas
will prevail throughout the week. Isolated showers/storms will be
possible through midweek, then the next notable rain chances will be
late in the weekend into next week. Conditions will be hot and dry
for the 4th of July. Saharan dust will continue to produce hazy
skies through midweek, and another plume is expected to move in
Friday and prevail over the weekend.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 94 75 94 / 0 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 76 95 76 95 / 0 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 90 81 90 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste