June 2025

[Pas_Bon]

We won't have a death ridge affecting us for more than 3 days - at least until the end of June and probably the first week of July.

[tireman4]

56
FXUS64 KHGX 171913
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
213 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Though the next seven days look quite seasonable, that doesn`t
mean nothing`s happening. Some of the key things to note for the
rest of the week and this weekend:
- Increasing winds this evening into tomorrow will create choppy
waters on the bays and raise seas on the Gulf. During this
stretch of higher winds and seas, small craft should exercise
caution.
- The stronger onshore winds will also impact conditions at Gulf-
facing beaches as well. Though the Galveston Beach Patrol is
currently flying yellow flags, increasing winds will also boost
the potential for dangerous rip currents.
- Our typical daily pattern of showers and thunderstorms will be
with us, providing isolated to scattered rain chances each day.
Though not supportive of any sort of broad severe weather
threat, the strongest storm or two of the day will be capable of
producing gusty winds and briefly heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A look at visible satellite imagery (or, you know, a look out the
window) will show plenty of cloud streets across Southeast Texas
early this afternoon. For the most part, these clouds are quite
benign looking but we are also seeing some isolated development of
showers. For now, this is pretty much in the coastal half of the
area, with no showers showing on radar north of
Brenham/Conroe/Cleveland but we should see this isolated
shower or storm activity gradually spread inland deeper into the
afternoon.

Another thing we`re seeing today is developing low pressure out
over the Panhandles. This low isn`t heading our way specifically,
as it will instead cross to the east, then eject northeastward
towards the Great Lakes over the next day or so. However, what
this will do is tighten the pressure gradient for us between that
developing low and the Bermuda high for the next 36 or so hours.
This will be most apparent on the coastal waters and at area
beaches, where the lack of friction from the Gulf will let winds
crank up a little bit more, though even inland we should see some
gusts up to around 20 mph. This will cause tougher boating
conditions for small craft, and increase the potential for life-
threatening rip currents on Gulf-facing beaches.

The onshore flow does also show some impact on moisture levels as
precipitable water values rise from a 1.5-1.75 inch range to
around or a little above 1.75 inches. In SE Texas fashion, this is
both a fair amount of moisture available for afternoon storms, and
also nothing terribly far from the climatological norm. The key
impact for us is that coverage of diurnal storms does look a
little bit higher for us deeper into the week. And, as always,
though most showers/storms will provide manageable, cooling
amounts of rain, the strongest storm or two of the day can always
get a little bit extra in producing gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall. Should one of those top-end storms fall over a place
that is particularly susceptible to flooding, we could see some
highly localized issues briefly crop up.

Temperature-wise, it`s much the same story. Things don`t look to
stray too far above the seasonal averages, and...well, even those
heat conditions can be hazardous to vulnerable folks if they are
unable to get relief. Expect peak heat index values in the
100-105 range. For those working outside in exposed conditions,
forecast wet bulb globe temperature values are in the moderate to
high risk range daily.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR with gusty south winds today as cloud bases rise above 030,
even if they do remain BKN at times. Isolated showers and storms
today, which looks to maximize around the Houston terminals due to
the seabreeze and peak heating lineup. Activity fades in evening
as sun goes down, with gusts easing off through the night as well.
Higher confidence in MVFR CIGs farther north (CLL/UTS/CXO), but
also have some FEW/SCT mentions farther south as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Onshore flow is expected for the next several days. Though
generally moderate, stronger winds are expected from late tonight
into Wednesday. During this period, winds will increase to 15 to
20 knots and seas may rise to around 5 feet for the offshore
waters. Small craft should exercise caution in these conditions.
There is a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms through the
upcoming weekend.

At the coast, the persistent onshore flow will lead to the
potential for strong rip currents at Gulf-facing beaches. These
high risk for rips will persist deep into the week. Tide levels
will also be above astronomical norms with the persistent onshore
flow, but for the time being appear to be around or below 2.5 feet
above MLLW at high tide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 77 91 76 / 10 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 92 78 91 77 / 30 0 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 82 88 81 / 20 0 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 7 PM CDT this evening
through Wednesday afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs

[captainbarbossa19]

We won't have a death ridge affecting us for more than 3 days - at least until the end of June and probably the first week of July.

I'm not seeing any significant ridging for the rest of the month. I think we are going to be stuck between ridges often this season which means the Gulf could open up later on. Need to monitor closely.

[tireman4]

We won't have a death ridge affecting us for more than 3 days - at least until the end of June and probably the first week of July.

I'm not seeing any significant ridging for the rest of the month. I think we are going to be stuck between ridges often this season which means the Gulf could open up later on. Need to monitor closely.

My sentiments exactly my dear Captain.

[tireman4]

Tonight

[DoctorMu]

There's some disgreement among models and ensembles, but I'll take some freshly squeezed lemonade for late June.

[Stratton20]

GFS / GEFS show alot of tropical moisture building across CA with a active CAG , something to watch in the coming weeks with texas being between two ridges of high pressure, that opens up a lane for tropical moisture to funnel into the state, but maybe some mischief as well, worth watching give. how saturated souls are in se texas over the last week

[Cpv17]

GFS / GEFS show alot of tropical moisture building across CA with a active CAG , something to watch in the coming weeks with texas being between two ridges of high pressure, that opens up a lane for tropical moisture to funnel into the state, but maybe some mischief as well, worth watching give. how saturated souls are in se texas over the last week

I’ve had almost 13” in the past 3 weeks. Before that, I had 2 inches in like 2-3 months lol

[Ptarmigan]

There's some disgreement among models and ensembles, but I'll take some freshly squeezed lemonade for late June.

Let's hope for it.

[tireman4]

245
FXUS64 KHGX 181124
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
624 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

- Looking like a fairly "normal" summertime weather pattern in the
area with mostly seasonable temperatures.
- Expect some diurnally driven showers/storms each day, mostly the isolated
to scattered variety. Not everyone will see rain each day.
- Winds, seas, rip current risk may be somewhat higher than normal
today, but should gradually trend back down a bit after that.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Mid level ridge generally centered over Baja will gradually
expand/move eastward into the Southern Plains later in the week,
Tennessee Valley this weekend, then into northeast US early next
week. Locally, we`ll be situated under the ridge this week which
should still allow for for some isolated/scattered, mainly daytime,
shower and thunderstorm activity. Other than the seabreeze/baybreeze
there aren`t really any large scale focusing mechanisms for
organized convection. Heading into the early/mid parts of next week
with the ridge set up well to our east, we could see a longer deeper
fetch of higher Gulf PWs set up and possibly lead to slightly higher
coverage and/or rain chances. 47

&&

.SHORT TERM...

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

MVFR CIGs should clear out over the next few hours with gusty
southerly winds and VFR conditions prevailing throughout the
daytime. Very light streamer showers will be possible near the
coast early today. During the afternoon, a few thunderstorms could
develop around the houston metro area. Short range models have
backed off on storms for today, and while PoPs have trended
downwards, a few stray thunderstorms aren`t completely out of the
question still. Any convection should taper off by the late
afternoon/evening. Winds relax overnight as MVFR CIGs once again
fill in across our northern 3 TAF sites (KCLL, KUTS, KCXO).

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Moderate onshore flow prevails today with seas in the 3-5ft range.
Will check-in with the beach patrol in the morning, but wouldn`t be
surprised if we need to go with a high rip current statement during
the day Thursday. The pressure gradient slightly weakens Friday into
the weekend and would anticipate typical summertime marine
conditions with 10-15kt sse winds 3-4ft seas. There will be some
isolated-scattered storms around at times, but better chances
probably early to mid next week. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 76 92 75 / 10 0 20 0
Houston (IAH) 91 77 92 77 / 20 0 30 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 88 81 / 20 10 40 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Back from The Arctic. I’m ready to go back!

I’ll take another 2 feet of rain the rest of this Summer here and clouds every day.

[Stratton20]

Man if the GFS is correct, we could be seeing alot of tropical moisture being pumped into the state over the next several weeks

[Pas_Bon]

Back from The Arctic. I’m ready to go back!

I’ll take another 2 feet of rain the rest of this Summer here and clouds every day.

[DoctorMu]

Back from The Arctic. I’m ready to go back!

I’ll take another 2 feet of rain the rest of this Summer here and clouds every day.

After years, my daughter finally gets why I want clouds and rain all summer here. lol

Today is leaning towards a Big Suck Day. 96°F IMFY, DP = 76°, Heat Index 110°F. Few clouds. The battery died on our Civic.

Yep - it's Texas summer again!

[Cpv17]

Back from The Arctic. I’m ready to go back!

I’ll take another 2 feet of rain the rest of this Summer here and clouds every day.

After years, my daughter finally gets why I want clouds and rain all summer here. lol

Today is leaning towards a Big Suck Day. 96°F IMFY, DP = 76°, Heat Index 110°F. Few clouds. The battery died on our Civic.

Yep - it's Texas summer again!

It’s not that bad down here. Temp is 90 and feels like is 102. Still too hot, but I can tolerate it.

[DoctorMu]

Back from The Arctic. I’m ready to go back!

I’ll take another 2 feet of rain the rest of this Summer here and clouds every day.

After years, my daughter finally gets why I want clouds and rain all summer here. lol

Today is leaning towards a Big Suck Day. 96°F IMFY, DP = 76°, Heat Index 110°F. Few clouds. The battery died on our Civic.

Yep - it's Texas summer again!

It’s not that bad down here. Temp is 90 and feels like is 102. Still too hot, but I can tolerate it.

My wife just read the DP. 77°F. Hazy, too. It's sucking pretty bad up in B/CS. This is the first really bad day. I'm waving some clouds in from the SE. At least there's some breeze, but we're really near a level where that starts to become counterproductive..

[Cpv17]

After years, my daughter finally gets why I want clouds and rain all summer here. lol

Today is leaning towards a Big Suck Day. 96°F IMFY, DP = 76°, Heat Index 110°F. Few clouds. The battery died on our Civic.

Yep - it's Texas summer again!

It’s not that bad down here. Temp is 90 and feels like is 102. Still too hot, but I can tolerate it.

My wife just read the DP. 77°F. Hazy, too. It's sucking pretty bad up in B/CS. This is the first really bad day. I'm waving some clouds in from the SE. At least there's some breeze, but we're really near a level where that starts to become counterproductive..

It’s looking like there will be some more rain around tomorrow.

[DoctorMu]

So...there's a chance?

Tomorrow or mid-next week...

[DoctorMu]

Hoping some mid level moisture from EPAC Hurricane Erick wafts its way toward us in a few days after landfall.

It's amazing how fast things dry out in College Station.

[tireman4]

Walked 5 miles at a 14 minute pace this morning from 6 to 7 15 am. Goodness gracious the dewpoints. I was soaked from heard to toe.