June 2025
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5423
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Eastern US could get crushed by heat ridging for the foreseeable future, modes really seem to bounce the heat ridge back from west to east, but never permanently sitting over texas, i feel good about rain chances continuing well into july/ august if we can keep that death ridge moving, but of course will need to watch the tropics when that heat ridge is away from texas
The action is picking up in the NW territories.
Surely, we can't miss yet again...
Surely, we can't miss yet again...
In the middle of a Krispy Kreme.
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Nice little storms popping off.
The outflow crashes into the streamer shower nearly over us, stabilizing the atmosphere...and we're still in the donut hole. Unbelievable.
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- Screenshot 2025-06-15 at 3.55.46 PM.jpeg (494.65 KiB) Viewed 762 times
Just very light rain now. The line is redeveloping south of us, so HOU could be in for more heavy rain.
Jeff Linder FB:
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GBinGrimes
- Posts: 112
- Joined: Mon Jan 27, 2014 1:50 pm
- Location: Anderson, TX
- Contact:
Got drenched here in Anderson. 2.5 + inches. Still getting a nice steady rain @ almost 8pm. Will take it all.
3.70”
Drenched.
Drenched.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6216
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
031
FXUS64 KHGX 161049
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
549 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.OVERVIEW...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025
- Seasonal temperatures expected throughout the forecast period.
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
for the next several days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025
Mostly tranquil conditions are expected during the overnight
hours, although some mid-level vort maxes lingering over
Southeast TX could trigger some isolated showers. The low
temperatures are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s for areas
north of I-10, the mid to upper 70s for areas near and south of
I-10, and the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coasts.
A bit of a stormy day is expected yet again on Monday as a mid-
level trough and additional vort maxes continue to move overhead.
We could see some isolated showers and thunderstorms develop near
sunrise, in particular over the Gulf waters and locations south of
I-10. Showers and thunderstorms are then expected to increase and
expand further inland during the morning to early afternoon hours as
diurnal heating and instability increases. Some storms could be
strong at times and may lead to strong gusty winds, especially
with DCAPE possibly near 1000 J/kg. PWs over Southeast TX are
expected to range between 1.8 to 2.1 inches, thus, periods of
heavy rainfall can also be expected with some of these storms.
Small hail cannot be ruled out either. For those who dont get to
experience the storms, expect partly cloudy skies with southerly
winds at around 10 mph. The high temperatures are expected to be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s for much of the region, although
areas receiving more rain could see temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s. Showers and storms dissipate during the evening to
early night hours as temperatures begin to cool and instability
decreases. Low rain chances expected Monday night along with low
temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 70s.
Although models show the eastern edge of a mid-level ridge over
Mexico expanding closer into Southeast TX during the week, several
upper level disturbances will be passing through the Southern
Plains and could continue to trigger isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms each day. We will continue to see
seasonal temperatures throughout the week with high temperatures
in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The low temperatures will be
slightly on the warmer side, generally in the mid to upper 70s.
Cotto
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025
A few sporadic MVFR CIGS may fill in briefly during the pre-dawn
hours. Otherwise VFR conditions will dominate throughout the day.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along the coast
early today, spreading inland during the afternoon then tapering
off during the early evening. A few storms could become strong at
times and may produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. Afterwards
light southerly flow prevails overnight. Cloud decks near 700-2500
ft may develop across portions of SE Texas during the early
morning hours of Tuesday. These cloud decks could briefly fill in
to bring MVFR to IFR conditions, with CIGs more likely to form in
areas near and around KCLL. Any CIGs should clear out again after
sunrise.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025
Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas mainly
between 2 and 4 feet are expected for the next several days.
Caution flags may be needed mid-week as the pressure gradient
tightens and winds strengthen to 15-20 knots. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Some
storms could lead to locally higher winds and seas. Also,
persistent onshore flow could lead to strong rip currents along
the Gulf facing coasts at times, in particular when winds are
above 15 knots.
Cotto
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 75 92 76 / 20 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 90 76 91 78 / 60 10 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 88 82 / 40 10 20 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
OVERVIEW...Cotto /24/
DISCUSSION....Cotto /24/
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Cotto /24/
FXUS64 KHGX 161049
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
549 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.OVERVIEW...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025
- Seasonal temperatures expected throughout the forecast period.
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
for the next several days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025
Mostly tranquil conditions are expected during the overnight
hours, although some mid-level vort maxes lingering over
Southeast TX could trigger some isolated showers. The low
temperatures are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s for areas
north of I-10, the mid to upper 70s for areas near and south of
I-10, and the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coasts.
A bit of a stormy day is expected yet again on Monday as a mid-
level trough and additional vort maxes continue to move overhead.
We could see some isolated showers and thunderstorms develop near
sunrise, in particular over the Gulf waters and locations south of
I-10. Showers and thunderstorms are then expected to increase and
expand further inland during the morning to early afternoon hours as
diurnal heating and instability increases. Some storms could be
strong at times and may lead to strong gusty winds, especially
with DCAPE possibly near 1000 J/kg. PWs over Southeast TX are
expected to range between 1.8 to 2.1 inches, thus, periods of
heavy rainfall can also be expected with some of these storms.
Small hail cannot be ruled out either. For those who dont get to
experience the storms, expect partly cloudy skies with southerly
winds at around 10 mph. The high temperatures are expected to be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s for much of the region, although
areas receiving more rain could see temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s. Showers and storms dissipate during the evening to
early night hours as temperatures begin to cool and instability
decreases. Low rain chances expected Monday night along with low
temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 70s.
Although models show the eastern edge of a mid-level ridge over
Mexico expanding closer into Southeast TX during the week, several
upper level disturbances will be passing through the Southern
Plains and could continue to trigger isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms each day. We will continue to see
seasonal temperatures throughout the week with high temperatures
in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The low temperatures will be
slightly on the warmer side, generally in the mid to upper 70s.
Cotto
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025
A few sporadic MVFR CIGS may fill in briefly during the pre-dawn
hours. Otherwise VFR conditions will dominate throughout the day.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along the coast
early today, spreading inland during the afternoon then tapering
off during the early evening. A few storms could become strong at
times and may produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. Afterwards
light southerly flow prevails overnight. Cloud decks near 700-2500
ft may develop across portions of SE Texas during the early
morning hours of Tuesday. These cloud decks could briefly fill in
to bring MVFR to IFR conditions, with CIGs more likely to form in
areas near and around KCLL. Any CIGs should clear out again after
sunrise.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025
Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas mainly
between 2 and 4 feet are expected for the next several days.
Caution flags may be needed mid-week as the pressure gradient
tightens and winds strengthen to 15-20 knots. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Some
storms could lead to locally higher winds and seas. Also,
persistent onshore flow could lead to strong rip currents along
the Gulf facing coasts at times, in particular when winds are
above 15 knots.
Cotto
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 75 92 76 / 20 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 90 76 91 78 / 60 10 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 88 82 / 40 10 20 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
OVERVIEW...Cotto /24/
DISCUSSION....Cotto /24/
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Cotto /24/
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6216
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
037
FXUS64 KHGX 161819
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
119 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025
...New OVERVIEW, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.OVERVIEW...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025
- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of the area. Locally heavy rain could potentially
lead to minor flooding or flash flooding.
- A daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected each day throughout the work-week; though with less
coverage than previous days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025
Latest visible satellite and radar show isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing along the coast and Gulf waters
early this afternoon. These showers are developing roughly in a zone
with strong moisture convergence at the surface and divergence at
300mb thanks to a weak upper jet. As we head into the afternoon and
early evening hours, peak of diurnal heating will take place along
with increasing low to mid-level instability under a zone of
precipitable water around 2.0 - 2.2 inch. This will support
scattered convection within the next few hours further inland. As of
now , the best focus for thunderstorms looks to be along the I-10
corridor and areas east of I-45. Locally heavy rain will be the
primary risk, resulting in isolated flooding. This risk is depicted
well in the WPC`s day 1 excessive rainfall outlook. The severe
weather risk is low; however, some strong storms will be capable of
producing strong winds, frequent lightning and small hail. Most of
this activity are diurnally-driven; therefore, showers/storms are
progged to end early this evening.
The eastern edge of the mid to upper level ridge centered across the
southwestern CONUS will slightly expand into our region after
Tuesday. Further to the east, there will be another weak ridge
centered across the eastern Atlantic/eastern Gulf. This pattern will
somehow increase subsidence (drier/sinking air) across the region
throughout the week. However, a trough axis will lingers across the
region; resulting in passing weak impulses of energy/shortwaves over
the area. In other words, a less active pattern will prevail over
the next several days, but there will be a daily risk of hit-or-miss
showers and thunderstorms. Global models and some ensemble means
show no consistency with the weather pattern beyond Thursday. Most
solutions suggest the best rain/storm coverage Thursday, persisting
into the weekend, particularly south of I-10. Forecast confidence
remains low to moderate during this time-frame given high
uncertainty. Therefore, will continue PoPs as NBM guidance suggests
with around 20 to 40 percent each day.
Warm and humid days continue with high temperatures generally in the
low 90s. Overnight lows mainly in the 70s inland, around 80 along
the coast.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025
A few sporadic MVFR CIGS may fill in briefly during the pre-dawn
hours. Otherwise VFR conditions will dominate throughout the day.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along the coast
early today, spreading inland during the afternoon then tapering
off during the early evening. A few storms could become strong at
times and may produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. Afterwards
light southerly flow prevails overnight. Cloud decks near 700-2500
ft may develop across portions of SE Texas during the early
morning hours of Tuesday. These cloud decks could briefly fill in
to bring MVFR to IFR conditions, with CIGs more likely to form in
areas near and around KCLL. Any CIGs should clear out again after
sunrise.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through
the day, before gradually diminish by late this afternoon. Rain and
storm chances are expected each day, with the greatest next chance
this Thursday. Elevated winds and seas, along with a slight chance
of waterspouts are possible with any strong thunderstorms. Overall,
light to moderate onshore winds and seas around 2 to 4 ft are
expected throughout the week. Seas may build a bit offshore (around 5
to 6 ft) Wednesday night into Thursday in response to an approaching
coastal trough over the southwestern Gulf. Given persistent onshore
flow along all Gulf-facing coast, a moderate to high risk of rip
currents will persist through most of the week.
JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 74 91 76 / 30 20 0 0
Houston (IAH) 90 75 91 78 / 60 40 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 88 82 / 40 20 20 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
OVERVIEW...JM
DISCUSSION....JM
AVIATION...03/APM
MARINE...JM
FXUS64 KHGX 161819
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
119 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025
...New OVERVIEW, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.OVERVIEW...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025
- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of the area. Locally heavy rain could potentially
lead to minor flooding or flash flooding.
- A daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected each day throughout the work-week; though with less
coverage than previous days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025
Latest visible satellite and radar show isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing along the coast and Gulf waters
early this afternoon. These showers are developing roughly in a zone
with strong moisture convergence at the surface and divergence at
300mb thanks to a weak upper jet. As we head into the afternoon and
early evening hours, peak of diurnal heating will take place along
with increasing low to mid-level instability under a zone of
precipitable water around 2.0 - 2.2 inch. This will support
scattered convection within the next few hours further inland. As of
now , the best focus for thunderstorms looks to be along the I-10
corridor and areas east of I-45. Locally heavy rain will be the
primary risk, resulting in isolated flooding. This risk is depicted
well in the WPC`s day 1 excessive rainfall outlook. The severe
weather risk is low; however, some strong storms will be capable of
producing strong winds, frequent lightning and small hail. Most of
this activity are diurnally-driven; therefore, showers/storms are
progged to end early this evening.
The eastern edge of the mid to upper level ridge centered across the
southwestern CONUS will slightly expand into our region after
Tuesday. Further to the east, there will be another weak ridge
centered across the eastern Atlantic/eastern Gulf. This pattern will
somehow increase subsidence (drier/sinking air) across the region
throughout the week. However, a trough axis will lingers across the
region; resulting in passing weak impulses of energy/shortwaves over
the area. In other words, a less active pattern will prevail over
the next several days, but there will be a daily risk of hit-or-miss
showers and thunderstorms. Global models and some ensemble means
show no consistency with the weather pattern beyond Thursday. Most
solutions suggest the best rain/storm coverage Thursday, persisting
into the weekend, particularly south of I-10. Forecast confidence
remains low to moderate during this time-frame given high
uncertainty. Therefore, will continue PoPs as NBM guidance suggests
with around 20 to 40 percent each day.
Warm and humid days continue with high temperatures generally in the
low 90s. Overnight lows mainly in the 70s inland, around 80 along
the coast.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025
A few sporadic MVFR CIGS may fill in briefly during the pre-dawn
hours. Otherwise VFR conditions will dominate throughout the day.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along the coast
early today, spreading inland during the afternoon then tapering
off during the early evening. A few storms could become strong at
times and may produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. Afterwards
light southerly flow prevails overnight. Cloud decks near 700-2500
ft may develop across portions of SE Texas during the early
morning hours of Tuesday. These cloud decks could briefly fill in
to bring MVFR to IFR conditions, with CIGs more likely to form in
areas near and around KCLL. Any CIGs should clear out again after
sunrise.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 116 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through
the day, before gradually diminish by late this afternoon. Rain and
storm chances are expected each day, with the greatest next chance
this Thursday. Elevated winds and seas, along with a slight chance
of waterspouts are possible with any strong thunderstorms. Overall,
light to moderate onshore winds and seas around 2 to 4 ft are
expected throughout the week. Seas may build a bit offshore (around 5
to 6 ft) Wednesday night into Thursday in response to an approaching
coastal trough over the southwestern Gulf. Given persistent onshore
flow along all Gulf-facing coast, a moderate to high risk of rip
currents will persist through most of the week.
JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 74 91 76 / 30 20 0 0
Houston (IAH) 90 75 91 78 / 60 40 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 88 82 / 40 20 20 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
OVERVIEW...JM
DISCUSSION....JM
AVIATION...03/APM
MARINE...JM
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5423
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Getting absolutely hammered by a cell thats become stationary right over katy
Yep, 3-4” over your area.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 16, 2025 6:34 pm Getting absolutely hammered by a cell thats become stationary right over katy
Be thankful for the rain.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5423
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Im cautiously optimistic this summer is going to be a near carbon copy of 2021, the death ridge really looks like it wants to lock over the eastern US, they could get absolutely crushed by heat over the next several weeks, we look to continue daily chances for storms with more normal summer time temperatures in the same period, cant complain at all
Stratton20 i hope you're right and this pattern continues through July and August i've gotten over 6 inches this monthStratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 16, 2025 10:47 pm Im cautiously optimistic this summer is going to be a near carbon copy of 2021, the death ridge really looks like it wants to lock over the eastern US, they could get absolutely crushed by heat over the next several weeks, we look to continue daily chances for storms with more normal summer time temperatures in the same period, cant complain at all
.Looks like so high pressure setting in.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5423
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
The ridge thats building in is just temporary, its going to move out by thursday, even then rain chances are still around 30% because its not an overly strong ridge. Rain chances are still looking decent the next several weeks, maybe some drier days in between, but the real blast furnace weather looks to stay well to the east of texas in the extended range