FXUS64 KHGX 091150
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
650 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025
A cutoff upper-level low will be meandering over eastern Texas and
Lousiana through the short term. This disturbance will bring a
chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through
the weekend with the greatest coverage along the coast and east of
I-45 during the afternoon and evening hours. Not expecting any
potent shortwaves like we have seen the past few days, so the
likelihood of any strong or severe storms is low.
Temperatures will be on the cooler side through the weekend. High
temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 70s to low 80s
and lows tonight down into the low to mid 60s. Saturday`s high
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s with overnight lows
in the mid to upper 50s for most of the area.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025
Mother`s Day is shaping up to be fantastic for all of the moms out
there as we start out the day with temperatures ranging from the mid
50s to low 60s. This is thanks to an upper level cutoff low overhead
keeping 850mb temperatures near or below the 10th percentile
(NAEFS/GEFS). That means we`ll only see daytime temperatures in the
mid 70s to low 80s, so perfect conditions to make some outdoor
plans. There is a slight chance of an isolated shower or two east of
I-45 due to moisture wrapping around the upper low, but most of us
will stay dry. Going into early next week, the upper level low will
get ejected to the northeast as ridging aloft begins to build in.
This means two things...rain chances go down and temperatures go up.
We are getting closer and closer to summer and Mother Nature is
going to give us a reminder of that next week.
The upward temperature trend takes high temperatures into the low to
mid 80s on Monday, upper 80s to low 90s on Tuesday, and low to mid
90s by midweek. Onshore flow returns towards the beginning of the
week as well meaning that we`ll be on a gradual upward trend in
humidity throughout the week, so I get to dust off the ol` heat
indices topic! Heat indices midweek and beyond look to approach the
100F mark. Although it won`t be hot enough for any advisories, keep
in mind that our bodies are not yet acclimated to these
temperatures...so you may not want to push yourself to the limit
outdoors in these temperatures. It feels silly saying that for high
temperatures that are only in the low to mid 90s, but it`s just
something to keep in mind that we`re still early in the season for
heat. An early look at the heat risk map after midweek shows
Southeast Texas approaching level 2 out of 4 for moderate heat
related impacts. Low temperatures will see a similar upward trend
from the mid 50s/low 60s on Sunday night to the low to mid 60s on
Monday night and lows in the 70s returning by midweek. Yay...
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025
Scattered showers inland and isolated thunderstorms at the coast
will persist through the mid-morning hours. A lull in the activity
is expected this afternoon, but some additional isolated showers
will be possible this evening into tonight. VFR conditions will
prevail through the period with some mid and high level clouds
passing through. Northerly winds around 8-12kt are expected
through this evening, then decrease to below 6kt tonight.
Fowler
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently pushing off the
coast around the Corpus Christi area and may skirt portions of the
Gulf waters off of the Upper Texas coast. Gusty winds, heavy rain, and
lightning will be the main concerns in any of the stronger
storms. Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms stick
around into Friday and Saturday as an upper level disturbance
remains in place. Light to occasionally moderate northerly to
northeasterly winds will be in place through the weekend, with the
potential for caution flags as early as early Friday morning.
Offshore flow prevails into early next week before winds
transition to southwesterly on Tuesday and southerly by midweek.
Winds and seas will be on a gradual upward trend going into the
middle of next week and may approach the caution flag threshold.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 60 78 57 / 10 10 20 10
Houston (IAH) 82 64 78 60 / 20 10 30 20
Galveston (GLS) 80 69 78 66 / 20 20 40 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for GMZ335-355.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Batiste
