May 2025
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6066
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
20
FXUS64 KHGX 081810
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
110 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025
Shortwave energy passing overhead should bring scattered showers
and storms this evening through Friday morning. CAMs put most of
this activity south and west of I-45/south of I-10. HREF mean
surface CAPE is progged to range from 1000-2000 J/KG throughout
the late afternoon/tonight with 6km wind shear around 40-50 knots.
Forecast soundings aren`t especially impressive, though enough
ingredients are in place to bring at least a marginal (level 1/5)
risk of severe storms tonight, in addition to a marginal (level
1/4) risk of excessive rainfall. These storms will be capable of
producing damaging winds, large hail and even locally heavy
rainfall. As already mentioned, this threat is not particularly
potent (some CAM models have backed off on convection) though
it`ll be worth monitoring, especially for areas further
south/southwest of the city.
Friday may see some isolated patchy fog early in the morning in a
few locations. Isolated lingering showers will be possible
throughout the morning hours with the remaining activity tapering
off heading into the afternoon the mid/upper level low shifts
downstream of our area over the ArkLaTex. Cooler and drier air
continues to filter in to bring more benign weather Friday night
into the early weekend.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025
Surface high pressure builds in over central TX this weekend,
leaving southeast TX under a drier northerly flow. Looking aloft,
the pattern is a bit messy with multiple shortwaves riding along
the low centered over the region/Lower MS Valley. Despite drier
air at the surface, a few showers/storms will be possible Saturday
and Sunday, mainly along the coastal areas and over the Gulf
waters, which are the areas with the highest PWs (1.1 - 1.4").
The main focus next week is the gradual warming trend. Upper
ridge will dominate the region as we head into the upcoming week.
Return flow from the departing high pressure and sufficient
subsidence will result in warmer (even hot), more humid conditions
with little to no precipitation.
In terms of temperatures, we`ll transition from near to slightly
below normal this weekend to above normal temperatures after next
Tuesday. To compare... the 850mb temperatures are progged to be
into the 9-12 degC range this weekend ... increasing to 20-25 degC
next week. This will bring seasonal weather conditions through
the weekend with surface highs into the 70s and low 80s. Get ready
for hot weather later on as highs are progged to climb into the
mid 90s.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025
Light to occasionally moderate E/NE winds are expected across SE
Texas this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and possibly
a few storms may develop late this afternoon through early Friday
morning. Shower/storms are more likely to develop in areas
south/southwest of the city during this period, mainly near the
coast. Elsewhere, odds are too low to warrant a mention with the
current TAF. Winds shift northerly heading into Friday with rain
chances diminishing throughout the day. VFR conditions largely
prevail throughout the TAF period, save for potential for isolated
morning fog at problematic sites like KCXO.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon, with chances continuing through the night. The
best chances will be across the coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel, including Matagorda Bay. This is in
response to a disturbance that will cross central TX, and the
coastal waters through the night. Gusty winds up to 40 knots and
lightning are expected with the strongest storms. Rain and storm
chances will continue into the weekend.
Overall, northeast to east winds will prevail through the evening
before shifting to the north late tonight. Offshore flow will
prevail through early next week, becoming moderate at times.
Onshore flow resumes after Monday as the high pressure shifts to
the east.
JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 64 80 60 / 10 20 20 20
Houston (IAH) 88 68 83 64 / 10 20 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 82 72 81 69 / 20 50 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM
FXUS64 KHGX 081810
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
110 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025
Shortwave energy passing overhead should bring scattered showers
and storms this evening through Friday morning. CAMs put most of
this activity south and west of I-45/south of I-10. HREF mean
surface CAPE is progged to range from 1000-2000 J/KG throughout
the late afternoon/tonight with 6km wind shear around 40-50 knots.
Forecast soundings aren`t especially impressive, though enough
ingredients are in place to bring at least a marginal (level 1/5)
risk of severe storms tonight, in addition to a marginal (level
1/4) risk of excessive rainfall. These storms will be capable of
producing damaging winds, large hail and even locally heavy
rainfall. As already mentioned, this threat is not particularly
potent (some CAM models have backed off on convection) though
it`ll be worth monitoring, especially for areas further
south/southwest of the city.
Friday may see some isolated patchy fog early in the morning in a
few locations. Isolated lingering showers will be possible
throughout the morning hours with the remaining activity tapering
off heading into the afternoon the mid/upper level low shifts
downstream of our area over the ArkLaTex. Cooler and drier air
continues to filter in to bring more benign weather Friday night
into the early weekend.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025
Surface high pressure builds in over central TX this weekend,
leaving southeast TX under a drier northerly flow. Looking aloft,
the pattern is a bit messy with multiple shortwaves riding along
the low centered over the region/Lower MS Valley. Despite drier
air at the surface, a few showers/storms will be possible Saturday
and Sunday, mainly along the coastal areas and over the Gulf
waters, which are the areas with the highest PWs (1.1 - 1.4").
The main focus next week is the gradual warming trend. Upper
ridge will dominate the region as we head into the upcoming week.
Return flow from the departing high pressure and sufficient
subsidence will result in warmer (even hot), more humid conditions
with little to no precipitation.
In terms of temperatures, we`ll transition from near to slightly
below normal this weekend to above normal temperatures after next
Tuesday. To compare... the 850mb temperatures are progged to be
into the 9-12 degC range this weekend ... increasing to 20-25 degC
next week. This will bring seasonal weather conditions through
the weekend with surface highs into the 70s and low 80s. Get ready
for hot weather later on as highs are progged to climb into the
mid 90s.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025
Light to occasionally moderate E/NE winds are expected across SE
Texas this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and possibly
a few storms may develop late this afternoon through early Friday
morning. Shower/storms are more likely to develop in areas
south/southwest of the city during this period, mainly near the
coast. Elsewhere, odds are too low to warrant a mention with the
current TAF. Winds shift northerly heading into Friday with rain
chances diminishing throughout the day. VFR conditions largely
prevail throughout the TAF period, save for potential for isolated
morning fog at problematic sites like KCXO.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon, with chances continuing through the night. The
best chances will be across the coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel, including Matagorda Bay. This is in
response to a disturbance that will cross central TX, and the
coastal waters through the night. Gusty winds up to 40 knots and
lightning are expected with the strongest storms. Rain and storm
chances will continue into the weekend.
Overall, northeast to east winds will prevail through the evening
before shifting to the north late tonight. Offshore flow will
prevail through early next week, becoming moderate at times.
Onshore flow resumes after Monday as the high pressure shifts to
the east.
JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 64 80 60 / 10 20 20 20
Houston (IAH) 88 68 83 64 / 10 20 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 82 72 81 69 / 20 50 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6066
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
HGX agrees with you
In terms of temperatures, we`ll transition from near to slightly
below normal this weekend to above normal temperatures after next
Tuesday. To compare... the 850mb temperatures are progged to be
into the 9-12 degC range this weekend ... increasing to 20-25 degC
next week. This will bring seasonal weather conditions through
the weekend with surface highs into the 70s and low 80s. Get ready
for hot weather later on as highs are progged to climb into the
mid 90s.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5377
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Yep, summers coming, ewww
Looks like coastal counties may get a good sloshing tonight/early tomorrow morning. We need it.
Fingers crossed.....
Fingers crossed.....
We’ve already gotten a half inch so far with what looks to be a good bit more on the way.
Good pickup. of rain for coastal areas.
It looks like ridging next week will only last a few days, then an uptick in rain chances as the ridge slides south and weakens a bit.
It looks like ridging next week will only last a few days, then an uptick in rain chances as the ridge slides south and weakens a bit.
League City/Upper Galveston County must’ve really pissed somebody off. Maybe the storms are scared of the NWS site here?
Pretty heavy showers down there.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1030 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for... East Central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas... Southwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...
* Until midnight CDT tonight.
* At 1030 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 2 to 4 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.
IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Northwestern Pasadena, southeastern Sugar Land, Missouri City, Stafford, Bellaire, West University Place, Galena Park, Jacinto City, Greater Third Ward, Macgregor, Greater Eastwood, Midtown Houston, Downtown Houston, Second Ward, Fourth Ward, Neartown / Montrose, Astrodome Area, University Place, Greater Fifth Ward and Near Northside Houston.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
&&
FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...2-4 INCHES IN 1 HOUR
$$
Batiste
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1030 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for... East Central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas... Southwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...
* Until midnight CDT tonight.
* At 1030 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 2 to 4 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.
HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.
IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Northwestern Pasadena, southeastern Sugar Land, Missouri City, Stafford, Bellaire, West University Place, Galena Park, Jacinto City, Greater Third Ward, Macgregor, Greater Eastwood, Midtown Houston, Downtown Houston, Second Ward, Fourth Ward, Neartown / Montrose, Astrodome Area, University Place, Greater Fifth Ward and Near Northside Houston.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.
&&
FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...2-4 INCHES IN 1 HOUR
$$
Batiste
Ended up not getting a single drop of rain yesterday evening/overnight. SMH.
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