November Weather Discussion. Rollercoaster Pattern.

[Andrew]

The 18z GFS is definitely one of the colder runs I have seen of late, but it might not be all that far-fetched. Several waves of cold are looking more and more likely to roll into the USA starting Thanksgiving week and lasting through (at least) the end of the month. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a widespread freeze reach all the way south into southeast Texas before the start of December. Up here in Oklahoma where I'm at, we might even see teens before the end of the month. It's definitely going to be interesting to watch play out!

Unfortunately, (or fortunately depending on your perspective), it looks like this swing towards colder will likely not last all winter. It might keep up through December, but by January into February it looks like warmer and drier will be the rule across the southern plains. So, if you're a winter-lover, the next 4-6 weeks is your time to enjoy!

Where did you get the January/ February info?

As wxman57 pointed out, the idea of a warmer and drier January/February is based on analog years and the fact that we are going to be in a La Nina winter. Generally, similar winters in the past have proven warmer-than-normal and drier-than-normal overall across the southern plains. Several of the seasonal forecast models including the CFS and ECMWF are also backing these ideas.

Now of course, while it should average out to be warmer and drier overall; there could still very well be a few significant cold snaps in the January and February timeframe. They will likely be fewer and farther between than usual; but that doesn't mean that they will be any less significant cold-wise when they do manage to make it into the southern plains.

Yea but I don't trust long range models and analog based is just that. There is a lot that can change and as of now a lot of things are pointing towards a cold couple of weeks.

[srainhoutx]

Another night, another spin of the GFS wheel. Have fun folks. Good to see some familiar 'faces' around here.

[srainhoutx]

Good morning. Dodge City, KS WFO again offers a great discussion on how things will likely play out regarding the Arctic Front and reinforcing shots of cold air as well as the forces at work...for our area, the timing of the arrival of the front will settle down as we get a bit closer to the event...

DAYS 3-7...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SHALLOW COLD AIR SLOSHES BACK AND FORTH
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IN RESPONSE TO MINOR WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH
THE FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE OSCILLATIONS OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR
POOL IS LOW, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR TEMPERATURE FORECAST
MISSES IS HIGH.

STRONG RIDGING IS IN PROGRESS JUST EAST OF THE DATELINE, AND
DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL OCCUR AS A STRONG JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE
DATELINE RIDGE AND DIVES SOUTHWARD AROUND 130W BY SATURDAY. THE
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR
52N/142W EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. A RESERVOIR OF COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN CANADA WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS
FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA, A PORTION OF THIS COLD
AIR RESERVOIR WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
AND SHOULD APPROACH 70 DEGREES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING OVER THE SHALLOW COLD
AIR LIKELY WILL SUPPORT FORMATION OF AN AREA OF STRATUS IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE MOIST LAYER
MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS, BUT THE SURFACE WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH THAT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT DOES FALL WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON ROADWAYS. THE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY, AND THE STRATUS WILL BE
VERY SLOW TO ERODE. SOME EROSION OF THE COLD AIR IS LIKELY SINCE
MOST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY THIN, HIGH CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY, AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF SPREADING WARM AIR BACK TOWARD
MORTON COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON LOOKS REASONABLE.

STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND THE COLD AIR
LIKELY WILL RETREAT TO AT LAST NORTHERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY, THE SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
SHALLOW COLD POOL WILL BEGIN TO PUSH BACK SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARM
SECTOR ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 20
DEGREES COOLER ALONG INTERSTATE 70.

YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW MONDAY, AND THE BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD AND SUBSEQUENTLY SURGE BACK SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF COLD AIR STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO INVADE
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE POLAR
VORTEX WEST OF HUDSON BAY AND DISLODGES A BIGGER PIECE OF THE COLD
AIR RESERVOIR.

[snowman65]

Still looking chilly mid week for Thanksgiving in Tennessee?

[srainhoutx]

Still looking chilly mid week for Thanksgiving in Tennessee?

NWS Nashville is going with a Thanksgiving evening frontal passage for that area at this time.

[ticka1]

In english - what is thanksgiving day and the long weekend going to be like for us? or is it just too soon to know?

[srainhoutx]

I did want to note what HGX had to say regarding the timing of the front since it is changing from run to run of the models...

OTHERWISE THE MAIN FCST ISSUE WITH THIS PACKAGE TO COME
AT THE END OF THE CYCLE - THAT IS THE COLD FRONT ORIGINALLY PROGG-
ED AOA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK JUST BEFORE TURKEY DAY. HOWEVER THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSIVELY SLOWER WITH FROPA WITH EACH RUN AND
NOW THE LATEST GUIDANCE DO NOT HAVE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL LATE THU
INTO EARLY FRI. BUT HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THE MAIN IMPACT(S) WILL
LIKELY JUST BE MORE ABOUT TEMPS THAN POPS.

[srainhoutx]

In english - what is thanksgiving day and the long weekend going to be like for us? or is it just too soon to know?

Still a week out and knowing that models will struggle with the timing issues at this range with a shallow modified Arctic Airmass, I'd say it's still too soon to know just yet, ticka1. My hunch is it will be chilly for Black Friday.

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
827 AM EST WED NOV 17 2010

VALID 12Z SUN NOV 21 2010 - 12Z WED NOV 24 2010

A TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD HOLD TIGHT OVER THE CONUS IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPSTREAM NE PACIFIC
RIDGING SHOWS NO SIGN OF QUICKLY FADING. TELECONNECTIONS FROM A
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA SHOWS A STRONG
SIGNAL DOWNSTREAM THAT INCLUDES MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
SE CONUS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND ENSEMBLES EVEN MORE
SO...SUGGESTING BETTER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

IN THIS FLOW...THE 00/06Z GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A SURFACE
WAVE FARTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS SE WY BY SUN/D4 WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN PUSH THE COLD AIRMASS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREAFTER...THE 00/06Z GFS RUNS LAG MOST OTHER
GUIDANCE WITH THIS SURGE SO ITS SOLUTION WAS DOWNPLAYED
CONSIDERING CONTINUITY. THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN FOLLOWED MUCH MORE
CLOSELY TO CONTINUITY AND HAD BETTER OVERALL ENSEMBLE MEAN
SUPPORT. HOWEVER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE 00Z ECMWF DOES PULL
DOWN A POTENT PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
VORTEX THROUGH EASTERN WA/OR. THIS IS QUITE A CHANGE FROM ITS
CONTINUITY AND SEEMINGLY IS A LESS PREDICTABLE SMALL-MID SCALE
FEATURE. ACCORDINGLY TONED DOWN THAT EXPLICIT FORECAST WITH A 50
PERCENT BLENDING/WEIGHTING FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR DAYS
5-7 MON-WED. DIFFERENCES FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CONUS AND
VICINITY BY THEN BECOME LESS NOTICEABLE FOR NOW SO OVERALL OUR
UPDATED PRELIM PROGS MAINTAIN CLOSE HPC CONTINUITY.

FRACASSO/SCHICHTEL

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS now has the front arriving Thanksgiving evening. It also appears we may have to start looking at a potential severe weather episode as well with the frontal passage. Also of note is temps do appear to be a bit cooler this run. A lot to work out in the days ahead.

[snowman65]

Ah yes.......When Leon Lett became FAMOUS.....lol

[tireman4]

Ah yes.......When Leon Lett became FAMOUS.....lol

Gosh darn it all...I remember this...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2kcpTmheM4

[texoz]

Will be curious to see how this plays out, and effects the UT vs A&M game next Thursday at 7pm.

Could be a nasty night for football, yes?

[TexasMetBlake]

America's team? Uhhhhh, I think not. GIG'EM AGGIES!!!!

[BiggieSmalls]

Many Ags hate Tech and/or Baylor (especially in basketball) more than Texas as well, so the hate isn't as one sided as many UT fans like to believe.

I also find it hard to believe that Texas fans had this attitude toward A&M in the early 90's when they were routinely pounded on the football field each Thanksgiving.

Anyways....back to the weather!

[wxman57]

12Z GFS now brings the front through early Thanksgiving day and predicts a freeze on Saturday following Thanksgiving. Way too early to be confident about anything next week.

New Euro brings the front through late on Thanksgiving Day, indicating mild temps with rain for Thanksgiving here. It's also not as cold post-frontal.

[Mr. T]

If the GFS were to verify for Thanksgiving morning, it would be in the 30s in Dallas and in the 60s and 70s in Houston. A blue norther type situation setting up...

[srainhoutx]

I’m beginning to take interest in the potential severe threat next week. The Gulf should be wide open and with noisy U/A Pattern along with a volatile Arctic Boundary nearby, a significant late fall episode may well set up...DDC (Dodge City, KS) snip, again...my hunch is this threat will extended S and E as things progress into TX/OK and points E...


BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...THE LARGE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OR
THE ROCKIES...WILL AMPLIFY AND APPROACH THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR AT THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH BY MID NEXT WEEK AND WOULD OFFER THE NEXT CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. BY THIS TIME... GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY HAVE ACCESS TO ANY DEVELOPING LOW...AND VERY
COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE CLOSE BY BEHIND THE NEARBY FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE MAY FOSTER STORM DEVELOPMENT BY THANKSGIVING TIME
FRAME THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

[biggerbyte]

Agreed!

If we hit the 70s with humid conditions, then that cold air will slam into that with nasty results. What a horrible day for that to happen, too.

Then the cold gets here. Folks would be wise to pay attention to thier local forecast starting on Monday or Tuesday. Frost and freeze potentials, post frontal, is something to consider.

BB

[weatherag]

Looks like temps in the mid 60's under fair skies for kickoff Saturday night at Kyle Field. A tad cooler would be nice, but all in all a perfect night for Ags- Huskers