May 2025

[tireman4]

Will it be Hot? Cool? Dry?

[Pas_Bon]

I know it's included for consistency, but the snow columns for May make me laugh.
I have a feeling it's going to be a hot one. I also think we will see actual severe weather in the HOU area in May.
Stratton, I sure hope you're right that the Summer may well be moderate with more rain.
I tend to err on the side of CP17's belief that it will be a brutal Hell-scape.

I hate this time of year we are running into shortly......

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I know it's included for consistency, but the snow columns for May make me laugh.
I have a feeling it's going to be a hot one. I also think we will see actual severe weather in the HOU area in May.
Stratton, I sure hope you're right that the Summer may well be moderate with more rain.
I tend to err on the side of CP17's belief that it will be a brutal Hell-scape.

I hate this time of year we are running into shortly......

May through September suck 110% of the time. Don’t worry, my percentages are dead on accurate.

[Ptarmigan]

May has produced flooding throughout Texas. 1907, 1929, 1935, 1957, 1970, 1971, 1981, 1989, 1995, 2015, 2016, and 2024 come to mind.

https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2003/ofr03-193 ... patton.htm

[jasons2k]

Well, so much for those overnight storms…
Went poof on my doorstep

[tireman4]

247
FXUS64 KHGX 011117
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
617 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

The convective line of showers/storms has pushed off to the
east/southeast of our CWA early today. The severe weather threat has
ended for the moment with remnants of this line`s southwesterly tail
expected to push offshore and taper off later this morning. Expect a
lull in rainfall with only sparse precip chances through the
afternoon hours while temperatures warm into the 80s. Weak shortwave
energy moving in during the late afternoon could bring a few
isolated showers/storms to the Brazos Valley/Piney Wood area. The
environment still features sufficient shear and ample instability,
such that some of these storms could become strong to severe.
Though, forcing aloft is still weak, so storms may struggle to grow
and organize with weak WAA showers dominating throughout the
daytime. SPC & WPC have portions of SE Texas under a Marginal Risk
for severe weather and excessive rainfall, with the potential for
severe weather (mainly wind & hail) and locally heavy rainfall
greatest further north across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods
area.

A more robust shortwave will push into southeast Texas from the west
late tonight, bringing another round of showers/storms through
Friday morning. Modest instability is still present throughout this
overnight period, such that a stronger storm or two remains in the
realm of possibility, though CAM guidance shows convection
decreasing leading up to sunrise as the atmosphere further
stabilizes. Bearing this in mind, we`ll like see another brief lull
in rainfall during the early/mid morning hours of Friday.

Late Friday morning and onwards looks to be the most active period of
the forecast. Steady shortwave energy is progged to stream through
aloft as a weak cold front is slowly pushed into SE Texas and
eventually off the coast by Saturday. The slew of CAM guidance shows
convection increasing into the afternoon with numerous thunderstorms
persisting through Friday night into early Saturday. HREF 2-5km
updraft helicity paint balls (exceeding >25 m2/s2) are concentrated
across a broad swath of the ArkLaTex area, especially areas
along/north of I-10 during the afternoon/early evening, signaling
higher confidence in stronger/severe storms in these areas. The tail
end of the 06z HRRR shows thunderstorms propagating southward Friday
night, moving off the coast during the early morning hours of
Saturday. SPC & WPC have a Marginal to Slight Risk for both severe
weather and excessive rainfall during this period of the forecast.
All severe hazards remain on the table during this period, so stay
tuned for updates.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Saturday morning following Friday night`s cold front before
surface high pressure moves in from the north bringing drier
conditions for the remainder of the weekend and into Monday. A
broad upper level low will be swinging through the Desert
Southwest on Monday, spawning a slow-moving surface low in the
Southern Plains on Tuesday into Wednesday. Deep southerly flow
and shortwaves out ahead of the main upper-level trough will bring
increased rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday across SE Texas.

Fairly seasonal temperatures are expected through Monday with
daytime high temperatures in the low to mid 80s, and overnight
lows in the mid 60s. The increasing southerly flow will lead to a
slight bump in temperatures (by 2-4 degrees) on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

A few spotty MVFR CIGS will be possible early today with
clouds decks lifting through the mid-morning to usher in
prevailing VFR conditions today. Isolated showers/storms will be
possible through the afternoon/evening, mainly in areas north of
the I-10 corridor. There is a non-zero chance that these storms
could become strong to severe, though confidence in storms
developing is low. Winds relax in the evening then MVFR CIGS fill
in again overnight into Friday morning. A brief round of light
showers will be possible early Friday, with numerous thunderstorms
likely Friday afternoon as a cold front approaches SE Texas.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025

Moderate onshore flow around 10-15kt with occasional gusts to
20-25kt will continue through the remainder of the week with seas
around 4-6ft. Small craft will likely have to exercise caution at
times through Saturday. The persistent onshore flow will also lead
to a high risk of strong rip currents along Gulf-facing beaches.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible through
Thursday, but then an increase in coverage Friday into Saturday as
a weak front slowly moves through the coastal waters.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 69 83 64 / 20 20 90 80
Houston (IAH) 88 72 85 67 / 10 20 80 70
Galveston (GLS) 81 76 80 71 / 20 20 40 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Fowler

[tireman4]

Seven Day Outlook

[DoctorMu]

Only 2.47 inches of rain in April. We need to roll some 7s in May or we will pay dearly in the summer: 2023, 2011.

[DoctorMu]

Seven Day Outlook

Friday is our big chance at rain as a FROPA magically appears. Lows in the 50s this weekend!

[Stratton20]

next week still looks wet as disturbances rotate and move in across se texas thanks to the cut off low slowly and i mean slowly moving out of new nexico and into central texas, dont see anything too crazy ( yet) but se texas is likely in for at least a stormy 5-6 days next week

[Cpv17]

next week still looks wet as disturbances rotate and move in across se texas thanks to the cut off low slowly and i mean slowly moving out of new nexico and into central texas, dont see anything too crazy ( yet) but se texas is likely in for at least a stormy 5-6 days next week

Hell, at this point I’ll be happy with whatever I can get. Seems like storms are always falling apart lately as they approach our area. Whatever is happening, it’s obvious something over us isn’t conducive for rain.

[jasons2k]

Three sites down now.

[Cpv17]

Latest 7 day WPC forecast looks really good N of I-10.

[Pas_Bon]

next week still looks wet as disturbances rotate and move in across se texas thanks to the cut off low slowly and i mean slowly moving out of new nexico and into central texas, dont see anything too crazy ( yet) but se texas is likely in for at least a stormy 5-6 days next week

Hell, at this point I’ll be happy with whatever I can get. Seems like storms are always falling apart lately as they approach our area. Whatever is happening, it’s obvious something over us isn’t conducive for rain.

Exactly my point with my earlier questions. Something has changed - on a macro scale - for the areas S of Houston toward the coast.
I know why convection fizzles out, but why has it been happening so much for areas S of I-10, for example, the past several years?
It's not a one-off thing I've witnessed. I have seen line after line after line run into a proverbial buzzsaw by the time it gets to Sugar Land, for example.
Yes, we have had some make it through, but something is going on on a grander scale and I can't figure it out.

[Stratton20]

Im blaming the cap and lack of instability in that department, herzog said last nights storms fell apart due to stable air over se texas and the upper level winds were pushing those storms into lousiana , im still optimistic about next week providing much better opportunities

[Pas_Bon]

Im blaming the cap and lack of instability in that department, herzog said last nights storms fell apart due to stable air over se texas and the upper level winds were pushing those storms into lousiana , im still optimistic about next week providing much better opportunities

Yes. Cap, stable air, etc. All of it....but WHY?
Why is this happening so frequently - in just this relatively small geographic spot?

[Pas_Bon]

Mesoscale models show the line breaking just ahead of the HOU metro, then miraculously re-forming in the Gulf. Not just the HRRR shows this, either.
I know they’re prognostications, but if that happens, I will be pissed. Lol

[jasons2k]

Started May off with a high of 91.

April saw 3.19” here. This summer won’t be anything like 2011.

I took tomorrow off. Starting my weekend early. Time to BBQ.

[jasons2k]

Active to the NW:

[Canebo]

Mesoscale models show the line breaking just ahead of the HOU metro, then miraculously re-forming in the Gulf. Not just the HRRR shows this, either.
I know they’re prognostications, but if that happens, I will be pissed. Lol

This is the typical pattern the last couple years. Especially, as it gets closer to the coast.