February 2025

[tireman4]

Yes, good amounts down south..

[tireman4]

337
FXUS64 KHGX 241130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
530 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 233 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025

After a cold week and a rainy weekend, the weather finally calms
down a bit for much of this week. Here are the main points for
tonight`s forecast:

- A warming trend will be the story for the first half of the
week. Yesterday`s highs in the 50s give way to highs in the 60s
this afternoon. Then lower 70s tomorrow, and mid to upper 70s on
Wednesday!
- A cold front arrives Wednesday night to cool things down, but
only modestly; back to around seasonal averages on Thursday.
This will be brief, as we gradually warm again into the weekend.
- Wednesday night`s front is likely to be dry for most in the area
(or for everyone!). Our next opportunity for more mentionable
rainfall holds off until Sunday, the very end of the forecast
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 233 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025

Areas of dense fog will greet many communities as you wake up this
morning. Visibility will be below a quarter mile in some locations.
Please drive cautiously when encountering dense fog this morning.
Any fog will break as the morning progresses. Low clouds may be
slower to break. But dry air aloft should help to mix out the clouds
by the afternoon, resulting in more sunshine and warmer
temperatures. Afternoon temperatures are expected to warm into the
60s. The beaches may only reach about 60 degrees while a few warmer
inland spots could surpass 70. Lows tonight are expected to drop
primarily in the 40s. Forecast soundings and HREF guidance suggest
areas of dense fog will develop once again.

Light south to southeast flow off the Gulf should develop on Tuesday.
Dew points and temperatures will be on the rise. Most areas away
from the coast are forecast to rise into the low/mid 70s. Coastal
areas will be cooler, likely holding in the 60s. As dew points rise
over the recently chilled bay and Gulf waters, the risk of marine
fog will increase. Therefore, we cannot rule out patchy coastal fog
on Tuesday if dew points rise enough. Dew points should continue
rising into Tuesday night, increasing the chance of fog.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 233 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025

We`re gonna start the long term off with the warmest day of the
week! I don`t think it will actually be *that* hot, getting up
into the middle to upper 70s around the area. High pressure at the
surface and up to 850 mb or so will give us onshore flow to help
bolster humidity and warmth. But it looks like we`ll have a zonal
pattern from 700 mb up, which really would need to be a decently
strong ridge if we really wanted to crank up the heat. Temps look
to be above average for sure, but nothing like the conditions we
were seeing earlier in the month before winter came back for a
visit.

Indeed, the story of the long term really seems to be that we`re
not looking for *that much* of anything. We`ll import some
potential for sea fog on the waters and immediate coast through
late Wednesday night, but surface flow generally looks a little
too veered and dewpoints aren`t super impressive for a really
blockbuster fog event (unless the fog is reading this and is now
convinced to jinx me. Which...sea fog is malevolent enough that
I`d believe it could do this). The best potential for fog may be
when winds slacken and back just before the frontal passage, but
that should only be for a few hours and then the front comes
through to end any fog threat.

Speaking of the front, this also continues the theme. We`ll have a
frontal passage, it will definitely shift the winds and bring
temperatures down a little bit for a little bit. And...that`s
about all I have to say about that. Precipitable water continues
to look fairly low, and rain chances on the front are above zero,
but barely so. I wouldn`t be surprised if we get a spittle or two
rain somewhere, but most or all should stay dry. Northerly winds
will increase moderately behind the front, helping usher in some
modestly cooler air. This should only be enough to bring us back
to around average for the end of February for a couple days. By
Friday, onshore flow should be back and expecting things to
gradually warm up again for the end of the week.

Our next chance for rain really doesn`t come until Sunday...and
even that one doesn`t look super solid right now. By this point
there is a strong deviation amongst the guidance, and there are
some stark differences among the LREF clustering algorithm
results. I`m actually somewhat disinclined at the moment to lean
too heavily into rain chances as both of the top two clusters show
shortwave ridging over Texas, responsible for roughly 57 percent
of the LREF members. While neither is totally dry, they are
decidedly drier than the grand ensemble. It is clusters 3 and 4
which are wetter, both showing a shortwave trough of varying
intensity over the state. This would indeed result in wetter
conditions given the low level onshore flow.

One thing that stands out to me is that we may have a
dispersiveness issue here. Dry cluster 1 contains 46 percent of
the euro ensemble members, while wet cluster 3 contains a whopping
70 percent of GEFS members! I suspect that there`s a good chance
whichever system ends up better reflecting reality, we could see a
rapid adjustment to that outcome in the days ahead. For now, it
seems reasonable to basically roll with NBM PoPs, as that keeps
even the highest rain chances below 30 percent. From here, we can
shift to either a drier or wetter scenario as the winner becomes
more clear.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 526 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025

Widespread IFR/LIFR vis/cigs will trend MVFR as the morning
progressing. Mostly VFR is expected by the afternoon into the
evening. Winds will be light and variable. However, a light
prevailing S to SE wind is possible from IAH to the coast this
afternoon. Reduced vis/cigs expected to return overnight,
especially after 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025

Winds and seas continue to gradually diminish as a coastal low
exits the region and high pressure settles over East Texas. Light
onshore flow resumes by late Monday. This onshore flow over cool
waters will fuel the potential for periods of fog through
Wednesday night. A cold front expected to arrive early Thursday
morning will end the window for fog development. Northerly winds
after the front are expected to be near the threshold for a small
craft advisory, and such an advisory may eventually be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 45 73 51 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 67 47 73 52 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 61 53 65 58 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ163-176-
177-195>199-210>213-226-227-235-236-335-336.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Luchs

[tireman4]

267
FXUS64 KHGX 242046
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
246 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 246 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025

Surface high pressure gradually pushing east across the area will
usher in onshore flow later this evening, which will solicit
WAA/moisture advection from the Gulf. This will translate to warmer
temperatures in the short term, with lows for Tuesday morning in the
mid 40s/lower 50s. Highs reach the 60s/lower 70s Tuesday afternoon
with lows for Wednesday morning in the upper 40s/upper 50s. The
influx of moisture will also bring overnight stratus and fog across
SE Texas, especially in areas closer to the coast where sea fog
could develop. SREF/HREF probabilities are fairly high and with
light onshore flow and favorable forecast soundings, confidence in
dense fog developing tonight is equally as high. As a result, a
Dense Fog Advisory has been preemptively issued for late tonight
through Tuesday morning. Motorists should exercise caution when
commuting to work Tuesday morning, as dense fog may restrict
visibility in spots, creating hazardous driving conditions. Drive
slow and keep your low beams on if you encounter dense fog.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025

Kicking off the long term period with above normal temperatures as
we reach the mid to upper 70s on Wednesday. Southwesterly flow aloft
at 850mb allows for 850mb temperatures to approach the 90th
percentile and thus we have above normal temperatures. However, a
weak cold front does put a halt to the warming trend as it pushes
through after midnight on early Thursday morning. There may be a few
isolated showers across our northern locations, but most of us will
experience a dry FROPA. Ahead of FROPA, we`ll likely still be
dealing with lingering sea fog Wednesday morning into early Thursday
morning. Now this front will be just enough to knock us back down
into the upper 60s/low 70s on Thursday, which is right where we
should be this time of the year. Unfortunately, we`ll go right back
onboard the warming trend train heading into the weekend. Expect low
to mid 70s to return by Saturday. Our best chance of rain comes over
the latter half of the weekend as an upper level low slides in from
the southwestern CONUS. Timing and progression remains in question,
but 20-30% PoPs remain in the forecast for Sunday and are likely to
extend into early next week. Speaking of early next
week...temperatures look to begin approaching the 80F mark.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1108 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025

CIGS and fog have been slow to clear this morning, and should take
more time this afternoon to see widespread improvements to
VFR/MVFR levels. Daytime heating will erode and scatter these
CIGS, with skies slowly clearing out from west to east. After a
brief period of VFR conditions in the late afternoon/early
evening, CIGS/Fog fill back in across the area from the coast,
bringing MVFR to IFR conditions with LIFR conditions more likely
throughout the early morning hours of Tuesday. CIGS/Fog will be
slow to clear/scatter Tuesday morning as well, possibly taking
till the afternoon hours to clear in some spots.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025

Periods of fog will be the primary marine hazard the next couple
days. Radiation fog should develop inland and spread into the bays
and possibly nearshore waters overnight. A marine dense fog advisory
will be likely at some point. Things should gradually improve in the
mid-late morning hours as the sun works some magic. With light
onshore winds in place, periods of fog (sea/radiational combo) will
again be likely Tuesday night-Wednesday morning and Wednesday night-
Thursday morning. A cold frontal passage Thursday morning will bring
a temporary end to the fog threat. However, as onshore flow
resumes this weekend it comes right back.

47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 46 72 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 48 71 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 53 63 56 68 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Tuesday
for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-
313-335>338-436-438-439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...03
MARINE...47

[jasons2k]

It was sunny and 70 today. Perfect weather. A million times better than last week!!

[Stratton20]

Mid 60’s here at 11:30 am, this weather is an atrocity, about 30 degrees too warm for me

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 25 2025

Few lingering CIGS will clear out over the next hour or so with
VFR conditions prevailing through the afternoon. CIGS and Fog will
fill in from the coast once again this evening, aided by sea fog,
bringing IFR to LIFR CIGS/VIS during the early morning hours of
Wednesday. CIGS/Fog should lift and clear Wednesday afternoon
with VFR conditions resuming.

[jasons2k]

Mid 60’s here at 11:30 am, this weather is an atrocity, about 30 degrees too warm for me

You’re probably the only person in all of Houston who does not appreciate a perfect, sunny, 70-degree day with no humidity.

[jasons2k]

Good news to report - no freeze damage at all. Somehow my pygmy date survived that wind unscathed with nothing but a single freeze cloth. Onto spring

[Stratton20]

jasons2k probably lol, i like sunny weather, just not sunny and warm

[jasons2k]

jasons2k probably lol, i like sunny weather, just not sunny and warm

Good news for you as this summer doesn't look as dry and hot as it once was looking. Should be slightly above average with near normal precipitation, but for now it doesn't look like anything too extreme.

[tireman4]

733
FXUS64 KHGX 261134
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
534 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 249 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025

Fog is present again tonight, though not nearly as widespread as it
was last night. A dense fog advisory is in place from the northern
and eastern edges of the Houston metro to Piney Woods and our
eastern border (and beyond). Elsewhere, there is still some patchy
fog on and inland of the coastal plain, but it is patchier and/or
less dense. There may eventually be a need for a dense fog advisory
west of the Houston metro (Colorado, Austin, and Washington counties
appear most likely to need something) if the dense patches become
more widespread, but in general, the current situation looks to hold
through the rest of the night.

In addition to helping create a fog-supportive environment,
dewpoints that have risen up into the 50s area-wide are also keeping
overnight low temperatures in the 50s as well. This should allow all
but the immediate Gulf coast to rise into the middle to upper 70s
this afternoon. Even right at the water, we`re going to be looking
for highs around or just above 70 degrees. Really, the only thing
holding temperatures back will be morning fog/stratus, and that
should be gone between 8 and 10 am.

At a longer range, tonight seemed like it could be an
interesting/tricky forecast that depended strongly on when in the
night a weak cold front moved through, shifting winds to northerly
and ushering in a modestly cooler and drier airmass. Well, now that
we`re coming up on tonight, that front is still expected...but
confidence is now quite high that it will not really arrive to the
northern edge of the area until shortly before dawn at the earliest.
This means that tonight will be a pre-frontal night, which means
another warm overnight period, and another opportunity for fog. The
potential for winds to become more easterly later in the night in
advance of the front may have implications for sea fog potential,
but that`s something you can read about more in the marine section
below.

Tomorrow morning now looks to be front time, with it moving in from
the north around/just before dawn. I`ve got a small corridor of
slight chances for rain...but this is probably a bit on the
conservative side. I can see this front squeezing out a handful of
isolated showers, but most everyone should stay dry (albeit a bit
foggy in the morning). The front will make its way across the area
through the day, and should push off the coast by evening.
Temperature changes should be noticeable north and northwest of the
Houston metro as early as the afternoon, as the morning FROPA should
keep highs down in the 60s tomorrow. Closer to the coast, I`d still
expect temps to get up into the 70s, and even in the middle 70s down
around Matagorda Bay, but it`ll still be noticeably cooler than
today, even if it`s not a lot cooler.

The impact of the front on temperature will be much more noticeable
tonight. The coast will see the least impact, with lows still in the
50s, but with drier air beginning to filter in, should feel more
crisp. Farther inland, as you increase the time for colder, drier
air to filter in, we`ll look for lows in the 40s (and maybe even
slipping into the upper 30s way up in the northern reaches of
Houston County?).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025

Mild temperatures and low dew points persist into Friday, with
afternoon highs averaging in the low/mid 70s (mid/upper 60s
beaches) followed by a cool night in the mid 40s to low 50s
(mid/upper 50s beaches). By the weekend into early next week, a
deep layer trough will gradually dig southward over W CONUS,
inducing LL pressure falls across central CONUS. Meanwhile, a sfc
high is expected to be in place over E CONUS. The configuration of
these features will allow for gradually increasing return flow
from the Gulf during the Saturday to Tuesday time frame. This
suggests that humidity will rise with each day while temperatures
become warmer. Many inland areas could be pushing 80 degrees by
the weekend and early next week. You may also notice conditions
becoming breezier. Eventually, a more organized area of low
pressure is expected to develop over the central plains and push
its trailing cold front across SE Texas around Tuesday of next
week. This could bring a round of showers and thunderstorms and
potentially a shot of cooler temperatures in its wake.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 534 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025

Tricky next few hours, particularly for Houston terminals on the
edge of the fog area. IAH seems close enough that I`ve indicated
LIFR conditions there, along with CXO and CLL. UTS is close, but
like last night it appears to be in a localized patch of better
conditions, so go IFR there...though LIFR is certainly a
possibility. Gamble with keeping HOU, SGR, and LBX on the MVFR-VFR
boundary, though none are very far from impacted obs. GLS seems
more safely to be a VFR site this morning.

Regardless, by 14-16Z, should become VFR across the area, with
south to southeast winds around 10 knots. Potential for fog
returns again tonight, and so try to sketch out a rough trend for
degradation of flight conditions, with future cycles to refine,
particularly for intensity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025

Patchy fog is expected this morning. The better chance of dense
fog occurs tonight into tomorrow morning before a cold front
pushes offshore, ending the fog risk. A period of 15 to 20 knot
north to northeast winds is expected in the front`s wake. We could
not rule out gusts up to 25 knots. There may be a modest rise in
Gulf seas as well as a brief chop in the bay waters. Winds
gradually veer and decrease on Friday into Saturday. By Saturday,
moist onshore flow begins, increasing the risk of marine fog.
Uncertainty exists regarding the sea surface temperatures which
are crucial for fog development. That being said, there is
potential for periods of sea fog beginning Saturday and continuing
into early next week. Next cold front may not arrive until
Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 56 66 43 / 0 10 20 0
Houston (IAH) 77 59 72 49 / 0 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 58 67 54 / 0 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for TXZ163-164-
177>179-197>200-210>212-214-226-235-300-335.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self

[jasons2k]

From SCW:

Houston is about to experience some of its nicest weather of the year

In brief: Tuesday brought gorgeous weather into the region, and if you missed it fear not, there is more to come. We’re going to see continued mild conditions and sunny skies through much of the weekend as spring marches into Houston and hangs around for awhile.

https://spacecityweather.com/houston-is ... -the-year/

[DoctorMu]

Good news to report - no freeze damage at all. Somehow my pygmy date survived that wind unscathed with nothing but a single freeze cloth. Onto spring

Pygmy Dates? We call those "indoor plants" in College Station.

[DoctorMu]

jasons2k probably lol, i like sunny weather, just not sunny and warm

Good news for you as this summer doesn't look as dry and hot as it once was looking. Should be slightly above average with near normal precipitation, but for now it doesn't look like anything too extreme.

Just keep the dang DP significantly under 60°F and I'll allow it.

[jasons2k]

Good news to report - no freeze damage at all. Somehow my pygmy date survived that wind unscathed with nothing but a single freeze cloth. Onto spring

Pygmy Dates? We call those "indoor plants" in College Station.

It was a Costco special. If it dies, it dies. I have a Mediterranean fan on standby for that spot. So far it’s managed to survive 3 winters and 17 degrees.

[jasons2k]

83 here today

[Cpv17]

83 here today

Almost time for a dip in your pool.

[Cpv17]

No interesting weather coming any time soon. Looks like a long stretch of boring weather ahead. Oh well, we need to dry out anyway. Soils are very saturated over here.

[tireman4]

575
FXUS64 KHGX 271035
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
435 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 435 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

A quick update for Tuesday`s severe weather potential. SPC just
released their latest outlook early this morning for Day 6
(Tuesday) and it now includes a 30% probability of severe weather
for portions of the Piney Woods on Tuesday afternoon/night and
this is equivalent to an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5). The 15%
probability of severe weather, which is equivalent to a slight
risk (level 2 of 5), was expanded further south and west and now
encompasses areas generally north of a Brenham-Conroe-Liberty
line. Be sure to stay up to date on the latest forecast details as
the day approaches. See the second paragraph of the long term
section below for additional details on the severe weather
potential for Tuesday.

Batiste

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 317 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Latest surface analysis reveals a weak cold front just outside of
the Brazos Valley. This front (at least the cooler/drier air behind
it) will gradually push through Southeast Texas throughout the day,
but most of us will see a northerly wind shift by the mid-morning
hours. Since the cooler/drier air takes a while to push in and we
have light winds in place ahead of the front, we`re already seeing
decreased visibilities due to patchy fog around the area. This is
anticipated to become more widespread through sunrise and may linger
for a few hours past sunrise. Most of the fog should be relegated
to areas near and south of I-10, especially near the bays and the
coast. Some of this fog could be dense at times especially for
our coastal locations. As the cold front pushes through, we could
manage to squeeze out some isolated sprinkles/light rain...but we
won`t see much more than that. Another result of the lag of the
cooler/drier air is that we`ll see daytime temperatures reach the
mid 70s south of I-10 where there is more time for heating and the
upper 60s/low 70s elsewhere. Surface high pressure builds in
quickly behind the front, and there`ll be enough CAA to help us
bottom out in the mid 40s to low 50s tonight.

Surface high pressure remains overhead on Friday leading to quite
the seasonal day with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s and
low temperatures in the upper 40s/low 50s paired with mostly clear
skies. For a month that featured well above normal temperatures and
well below normal temperatures, to cap it off with a sunny and
seasonal day is peak cinema. Friday also brings a close to
Meteorological Winter as well. For those wondering if it`s okay to
start planting things again...the average last day for a freeze in
Houston is February 15th, so take that for what you will. It`s not
unheard of to experience a freeze in March (we did in 2022)...but
I`m not seeing ANY indications of that in the GFS/Euro ensembles.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Spring looks good on you, H-town! Saturday marks the beginning of
Meteorological Spring and ohhhh do we ever have some springtime
shenanigans afoot. Firstly, surface high pressure slides out to
the east by late Saturday allowing for onshore flow to return. As
a result, high temperatures on Saturday top out in the upper 70s
to low 80s. Going into Sunday, an upper level low drifts into
north Texas from the Four Corners region. A subsequent surface low
develops and drifts eastward across the Red River on Sunday. This
brings us our first "real" chance of rain of the forecast period
late Sunday into Monday morning. High temperatures on Sunday will
be a few degrees cooler and only reaching the low to mid 70s as
cooler air aloft briefly filters in due to the nearby passage of
the upper level low. We`ll be right back into the upper 70s/low
80s on Monday though as we head towards the main story of the
forecast period.

A deep upper level trough drifts in from western CONUS Monday into
Tuesday leading to surface low pressure developing (lee
cyclogenesis) in the Central Plains. We`ll be able to feel the
WAA/moisture advection as Southeast Texas will be firmly in the warm
sector of the surface low on Tuesday...and it`ll be quite breezy too
with a strengthening LLJ overhead. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along and ahead of an associated cold front.
It`s too early to get into any specifics, but the shear (both deep-
layer and low-level), instability, and mid-level lapse rates all
look decent. So, it`s not too surprising that SPC already has
portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods outlined in 15%
probability for severe weather (equivalent to a slight risk [level 2
of 5]). The main window for strong to severe storms looks to be
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as the cold front pushes
through the region. FROPA timing remains a bit uncertain, but that`s
to be expected with something ~6 days out. Cooler/drier air filters
in behind this front as well...but this`ll only knock us down into
the 70s for high temperatures and 40s/50s for low temperatures.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 435 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

IFR to VLIFR visibilities due to patchy fog will persist for most
locations through 15-16Z before conditions begin to gradually
improve. The only sites without fog at the moment are UTS/CLL
where MVFR ceilings remain as a weak frontal boundary begins to
approach/push through the region. Most locations will see a
northeasterly wind shift before the actual front pushes through,
and it`s worth mentioning that there could be some isolated light
sprinkles along the boundary. Decreased ceilings will remain into
the mid to late morning before conditions return to VFR. BKN to
OVC clouds are expected to linger into tonight, but should be
relegated to the mid to upper levels. Northeasterly winds could
gust up to 20-25 kt at times this afternoon before trending to
become light and variable after sunset.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Sea fog will be the main marine impact throughout the morning hours
ahead of an approaching weak frontal boundary. Fog is currently
patchy, but is expected to become increasingly dense and widespread
later this morning especially in the bays and nearshore Gulf waters.
As a result, a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is currently in effect
for the bays and nearshore waters through noon. Light to
occasionally moderate northeasterly winds prevails through tonight
and transitions to easterly by Friday and southeasterly by late
Saturday. This return to onshore flow over the weekend brings
about another potential return to the sea fog, but as the previous
forecaster mentioned we will need to keep an eye on wind speeds
and warming waters on a daily basis since these will impact the
coverage/intensity of the fog.

Southeasterly winds become nearly steadily moderate late in the
weekend into early next week, which will likely necessitate caution
flags. We`re keeping an eye on the next cold front to push through
the coastal waters on Tuesday night and will be accompanied by
chances for showers/storms.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 44 72 49 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 73 50 73 51 / 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 69 55 64 54 / 20 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ178-179-
199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ330-335-350-355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Batiste

[tireman4]

834
FXUS64 KHGX 281139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
539 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Surface high pressure continues to sit firmly in place, so we can
expect a decreasing trend in cloud cover through out the day leading
into abundant sunshine. Temperatures this afternoon will be a bit on
the warm side as we top out mainly in the mid 70s...but not too warm
for those dressing up in western attire for Go Texan Day today
(yeehaw!). Weak onshore flow returns today as well leading to a
gradual increasing trend in low-level moisture. That means that
patchy fog is expected to make a return yet again later tonight into
Saturday morning mainly for locations near and south of I-10. Low
temperatures tonight will be mainly in the low 50s.

Onshore flow fully establishes on Saturday as we continue on the
warming trend leading to high temperatures in the upper 70s to low
80s across Southeast Texas for the first day of Meteorological
Spring. Water temperatures in the bays and nearshore Gulf waters
remain in the upper 50s, which dew points are expected to reach that
point some time on Saturday afternoon. As a result, we could begin
to see patches of sea fog begin to develop which could move inland
as we head into the evening/nighttime hours...but there is a
potentially inhibiting factor. Low temperatures will range from the
low to mid 50s in spite of a cold front backing into the area from
the northeast on Saturday night (parent surface low pressure in NE
CONUS/E Canada). You won`t really notice any differences as far as
temperatures go, but this front will briefly decrease dew points
overnight. This may actually decrease the sea fog threat around
Galveston Bay with dew points falling into the low 50s, but dew
points may remain elevated enough around Matagorda Bay for the sea
fog threat to persist.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Increasing southerly flow will bring an influx of moisture into SE
Texas through the first couple of days of next week leading to
mostly cloudy skies and possible coastal fog. A weak shortwave
sliding through the Red River Valley Sunday evening into Monday
morning may bring some isolated showers to the Piney Woods - but
the best chance for rainfall will be to the northeast of our
region. A stronger upper level disturbance will be moving through
the Desert Southwest on Monday that will increase WAA and moisture
advection across SE Texas (PWATs will rise near 1.3" by Monday
afternoon/evening). This may lead to some isolated streamer
showers popping up Monday afternoon, but rain chances don`t
increase much until Tuesday morning/afternoon as the cold front
associated with that upper level disturbance slides on through.
Again the Piney Woods and areas to the north and east will have
the best chance of seeing showers and storms, but activity may
spread as far south as the coast. There is potential for some
isolated strong to severe storms to develop out ahead of and along
the cold front with the greater chances being in the Piney Woods
where SPC maintains a 15% chance of severe weather. Cooler/drier
weather is expected Tuesday night through the remainder of the
work week following the passage of that aforementioned front.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 539 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail throughout most of the
TAF period. Winds will start out light and northeasterly to
easterly this morning and transition to southeasterly by this
afternoon. The main aviation impact is the potential for patchy
fog to develop overnight near and south of I-10. IAH and southward
may see decreased visibilities and ceilings at times between
08Z-15Z before we make a return back to VFR. Winds will remain
light throughout the day on Saturday as well.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Light winds and low seas are expected to persist through Saturday
with increasing easterly winds of 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
expected by Sunday. Onshore flow will persist through the first
half of next week until the passage of a cold front late Tuesday.
Small Craft Advisories (or at least small craft needing to
exercise caution) are possible as early as Monday night due to
strong onshore flow ahead of the front, and again possible
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning due to gusty northerly winds
following the passage of the front. A line of showers and storms
will also likely accompany the frontal passage, but otherwise most
of next week is looking rain-free.

With onshore flow returning by Saturday morning, the potential
for sea fog returns with periods of patchy fog remaining possible
until the passage of the cold front on Tuesday. However, the
moderate to occasionally strong southerly winds may help inhibit
fog development.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 51 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 75 54 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 65 56 67 55 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Fowler