February 2025

[Cpv17]

33 here with a forecast low of 27. Bust after bust after bust…

It’s all related to cloud cover. I also could’ve told you it wasn’t gonna get to 27 lol don’t know why that was your forecasted low to begin with.

[tireman4]

275
FXUS64 KHGX 211127
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
527 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Cold, February conditions persist this morning, but a gradual
warming trend will get kicked off by a passing coastal low this
weekend. Of course, that coastal low also means rain this weekend,
focused on Saturday night. Some other highlights of the forecast:

- A cold weather advisory is in place through noon as temps and
northeast winds combine to push wind chills into the teens and lower
20s. Conditions will improve, but for now it`s good to keep those
cold protections up.
- Rain chances will be on the rise late tonight, through Saturday,
and into Sunday while a coastal Gulf low passes through the region.
There`s no real severe storm or flooding concerns, but we do look
to get ourselves a decent soaker and a handful of lightning
strikes, particularly closer to the coast. On the waters, rough
conditions from this low will keep small craft advisories in the
picture.
- Warming conditions take over next week, and by mid-week, we`ll be
looking for highs well into the 70s and pushing 80 degrees in the
warm spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 323 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Well, clouds finally went away like they were supposed to earlier on
Thursday...and then they came right back in the evening...but this
time at least on the expected schedule. These clouds are keeping
temperatures warmer than last night, and winds are also a little
lighter, though still generally up around 10 mph. As a result, we`re
able to escape a need for any extreme cold warnings overnight and
this morning, but we`re still looking at wind chills coming down in
to the upper teens and lower 20s, and that is cold enough to prompt
a cold weather advisory as a reminder that we need to keep our cold
weather protections up.

"When will it ever end?" hot weather lovers may ask. And, though
we`ve still got colder than average conditions ahead for a little
bit longer, we`re very clearly headed on our way out of this.
Today will show that it is not like flipping a switch, though. The
cloud cover will keep temps today mired in the upper 30s and lower
40s across the area. That means lows tonight aren`t going to be any
higher than in the 30s, but we`ve got cloud cover to help, and
onshore flow returning just aloft, with southerly winds at 850
becoming re-established.

Of course, this also means that we`re going to have moisture return
and at least some isentropic lift. Oh, and I almost forgot to
mention. A surface low is beginning to get organized off the
northeast Mexican coast and will begin to make its way up to the
northwestern Gulf. It doesn`t look particularly deep and will be far
enough off that surface flow stays northeasterly. But while things
begin to warm and moisten not too far off the deck, we`ll gradually
be looking for some rain chances to creep back into the picture late
tonight.

Before I get much deeper into this, I do want to pause a moment and
point out that...while rain chances will start out quite low as
we`ll have to moisten the surface layer from the top down, the lack
of onshore surface flow means that surface temps tonight could still
get down around freezing farther inland. So if we do manage to get a
light shower or two well inland while it`s still cold, a brief bit
of wintry precip isn`t impossible. If rain falls into a cold, dry
surface air mass, we could wet bulb our way into a handful of sleet
pellets, and eventually might manage a short bit of freezing rain
around dawn, mainly up in the northwest around Caldwell. This corner
of our forecast area will have the best chance at overlapping the
earliest moisture channel with cold enough temperatures. It`s still
not a high chance, but plausible enough that it`s worth a mention.

Okay, with that aside, let`s get into the more likely evolution of
things here. As the coastal low continues to make its way up the
western edge of the Gulf, we`ll see things moisten up enough to
start to get some light showers down in our southwest towards
Matagorda Bay through the morning on Saturday. That potential should
gradually overspread Southeast Texas through Saturday afternoon and
evening, with the best potential on the coast (and coastal waters).
Peak rain chances will be Saturday night as the low makes its
closest approach to our area, and then peel off to the east on
Sunday.

I`m not expecting a real intense event here. With no real surface
onshore flow, we`re really mitigating the increase of precipitable
water here, which only looks to peak out around or less than an
inch. Additionally, we`re also minimizing warm air advection at the
surface as well, and so we`re also not able to build a good pool of
instability to fuel more intense convective cells. Some elevated
convection will be possible, of course, but this is not an
environment that supports numerous intense updrafts and
corresponding rain rates. Instead...we get a drawn out soaker, where
we may manage to pile up more than an inch of rain along the coast
eventually...but we`ll be absent the multi-inch per hour rain rates
that cause flooding issues around here. Elevated convection and
weaker convection also will keep severe potential off the table.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

The coastal low continues to be a rain maker as we head into
Sunday. If the ECMWF has its way, much of the region could receive
1-2 inches of rainfall. Other models aren`t as wet but still bring
rain to most of the CWA. A nice soaking rain but nothing too
concerning. Mostly just happy lawns! Temperatures are expected to
be warmer on Sunday. But I wouldn`t call it "warm" with temps
reaching the 50s by afternoon. Breezy conditions are likely to
continue near the coast due to the steep gradient. The low will
pull away late Sunday, lowering coastal winds and bringing the
rainfall to an end.

For those yearning for warmer weather, the pattern next week is
good news! LL flow will switch to an onshore regime, bringing
warmer and more moist air northward from the Gulf. Much of the CWA
is expected to be near 70 degrees by Monday. By Wednesday, we have
most of the region between 75 and 80 degrees. The only downside to
next week`s pattern will be the potential for sea fog. Conditions
are expected to become more favorable for sea/coastal fog as warm
humid air moves over the recently chilled waters of the Gulf. In
these scenarios, it`s not uncommon for the fog to push inland
overnight. Long range guidance is hinting at another cold front by
the end of next week. But fear not! This front does not appear to
be of the arctic variety. Current global guidance suggest
temperatures drop about 10 degrees behind the front.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 527 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

For most sites, a pretty straightforward forecast. NE winds around
10 knots, with VFR CIGs starting around 060 slowly decreasing but
still within VFR by the end of the period.

Winds are a bit stronger - 15-20 kts - at GLS thanks to the fetch
off the bay, and CIGs come down just enough to reach MVFR just
before the forecast period ends. At LBX, introduce a PROB30 for
SHRA late in the period as well, though better chances for rain
lie beyond the end of this forecast. Similarly, I have a PROB30 in
the IAH extended where again, better chances for rain lie beyond
the end of this forecast, but worth mentioning in case atmosphere
moistens up more quickly than anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025
A coastal low will bring hazardous winds and seas through the
weekend. Small Craft Advisories are in effect in the bays and Gulf
waters. Winds of 20 to 25 knots with gusts over 30 knots are
expected. Seas offshore could exceed 6 feet. The low will also
bring a good chance of rain and potentially a few thunderstorms
Saturday into Sunday. Weather conditions should improve late
Sunday into early next week. However, the risk of sea fog
increases by the middle of the week as warm and moist air pushes
northward over the recently chilled waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 38 32 43 38 / 0 10 30 70
Houston (IAH) 40 35 44 41 / 0 20 50 80
Galveston (GLS) 44 41 50 48 / 10 20 60 80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9 AM CST this morning
for GMZ330-335-350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ330.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ335.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ350-355-370-
375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self

[tireman4]

Possible Frozen P Types for our northern counties...

Before I get much deeper into this, I do want to pause a moment and
point out that...while rain chances will start out quite low as
we`ll have to moisten the surface layer from the top down, the lack
of onshore surface flow means that surface temps tonight could still
get down around freezing farther inland. So if we do manage to get a
light shower or two well inland while it`s still cold, a brief bit
of wintry precip isn`t impossible. If rain falls into a cold, dry
surface air mass, we could wet bulb our way into a handful of sleet
pellets, and eventually might manage a short bit of freezing rain
around dawn, mainly up in the northwest around Caldwell. This corner
of our forecast area will have the best chance at overlapping the
earliest moisture channel with cold enough temperatures. It`s still
not a high chance, but plausible enough that it`s worth a mention.

[jasons2k]

33 here with a forecast low of 27. Bust after bust after bust…

It’s all related to cloud cover. I also could’ve told you it wasn’t gonna get to 27 lol don’t know why that was your forecasted low to begin with.

Well that’s the thing. It was obvious. I think folks know I’ve been around long enough to have great respect for the NWS and whenever someone asks me “what’s the forecast for my location” that’s the default go-to. But a lot of blown forecasts over recent years could be seen from a mile away, including this one. The cloud deck was quickly moving this way by yesterday morning, plenty of time to factor that into the afternoon packages. I think it goes back to my repeated complaints/observations that more and more forecasters are relying on model output on a screen and not taking two seconds to look out the darn window.

[Rip76]

33 here with a forecast low of 27. Bust after bust after bust…

It’s all related to cloud cover. I also could’ve told you it wasn’t gonna get to 27 lol don’t know why that was your forecasted low to begin with.

Well that’s the thing. It was obvious. I think folks know I’ve been around long enough to have great respect for the NWS and whenever someone asks me “what’s the forecast for my location” that’s the default go-to. But a lot of blown forecasts over recent years could be seen from a mile away, including this one. The cloud deck was quickly moving this way by yesterday morning, plenty of time to factor that into the afternoon packages. I think it goes back to my repeated complaints/observations that more and more forecasters are relying on model output on a screen and not taking two seconds to look out the darn window.

Yes sir.

[Rip76]

Now what about frozen precip on Saturday?
Temps seem a little high, but who knows.

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1151 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

VFR conditions will remain in place through this evening across
the area, with cloud decks holding around 5000 ft. Cigs will
begin to lower overnight, reaching MVFR levels tomorrow morning.
As a storm system approaches from the Gulf, rain chances will
increase beginning in the morning near the coast. Showers and
storms will become more widespread and expand inland over the
course of the day. Expect northeast winds to remain in place,
generally remaining below 10 knots inland and around 15 knots
along the immediate coast.

[tireman4]

Ben Noll

[DoctorMu]

Now what about frozen precip on Saturday?
Temps seem a little high, but who knows.

NWS is progging frozen stuff in CLL Saturday morning when we're below freezing. "Lake effect snow" sightings from earlier in the week confirmed up here. We had snow and freezing rain at the house.

We're 38°F. We haven't seen 40°F in days. Things stayed below freezing last night.

The grass is brown again now. Even some of the weeds. lol

[DoctorMu]

Possible Frozen P Types for our northern counties...

Before I get much deeper into this, I do want to pause a moment and
point out that...while rain chances will start out quite low as
we`ll have to moisten the surface layer from the top down, the lack
of onshore surface flow means that surface temps tonight could still
get down around freezing farther inland. So if we do manage to get a
light shower or two well inland while it`s still cold, a brief bit
of wintry precip isn`t impossible. If rain falls into a cold, dry
surface air mass, we could wet bulb our way into a handful of sleet
pellets, and eventually might manage a short bit of freezing rain
around dawn, mainly up in the northwest around Caldwell. This corner
of our forecast area will have the best chance at overlapping the
earliest moisture channel with cold enough temperatures. It`s still
not a high chance, but plausible enough that it`s worth a mention.

Our DP is 17°F with continued northerly winds through the morning Saturday. Once precip starts early Saturday am in subfreezing air, I like our chances.

Don't need to drive into work tomorrow.

[DoctorMu]

Steep gradient continues in temps to the Gulf of w/e. 36°F here. DP under 20°F. It *could* be interesting tomorrow am. It's all about timing. 30% chance of a mix. Then boring rain chances peaking Sat. night. Accumulations should be light here. The Canadian has a maybe signature as we hover around freezing about 8:00 am tomorrow.

[DoctorMu]

Some light bands with freezing rain moving through up here. Freezing rain returns near Madisonville.

[DoctorMu]

More bands of freezing rain, rain, sleet. No significant accumulation, though. 32°F - as expected. Just a little ice on some raised surfaces.

Welp, that's it for Winter 2025.

[tireman4]

This weekends forecast

[jasons2k]

We just had a passing shower with 39 degrees. No sleet observed. Dew point climbing above freezing now. It’s finally done. See ya later Jack Frost don’t let the door hit ya!

[DoctorMu]

I wish summer heat waves lasted only 4.5 days.

Instead of 4.5 months. Lol

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu i wish summer heat waves didnt even exist at all lol

[Brazoriatx979]

What had to that 90% chance of rain today?

[Dls2010r]

Everybody is posting on northern counties. I’m in the Fe. I’m getting hammered with rain and it’s caf!!!!

[Dls2010r]