February 2025

[DoctorMu]

The Euro and Canadian stabilized over the past 24 hours

CLL airport: 19° Wednesday night

IMFY: 16°F

I was out mowing in 48°F weather. It felt pretty good! No sweat. Full stamina.

Spring can stay away. Weeds, insects, dripping sweat. yuck.

https://youtu.be/QU7yl9R9bkY?si=-MY5ZujMyXSYWyAb

[biggerbyte]

Temp forecasts for the coldest nights are coming down again. I'd advise keeping an eye out for any further changes downward. It could the difference in busted pipes.

[jasons2k]

Last night’s forecast low here was 34, I hit 36. Works for me.

[DoctorMu]

29°F low here IMFY this morning.

I still think we'll hit the teens Wed. night. That would be good - I'm battling too many weeds. Canadian has 17°, Euro 19°F.

[don]

It looks like I will be experiencing the coldest temperatures I’ve ever experienced before. We are now forecast to get down to 7 Tuesday night and 5 degrees Wednesday night! The NWS has also issued a Winter Weather Advisory for ice from 6 am-midnight tomorrow.

[Stratton20]

man if only those single digits would make it down here! Thats what i call amazing weather!

[Cpv17]

man if only those single digits would make it down here! Thats what i call amazing weather!

Same here. I’ve never experienced single digits before. Single digits with wind chills well into the negatives would be so bad as* to experience. Maybe one day it’ll happen here, but I’m not even sure it’s scientifically possible to even get that cold down here anymore with how everything is warming up.

[Cpv17]

It looks like I will be experiencing the coldest temperatures I’ve ever experienced before. We are now forecast to get down to 7 Tuesday night and 5 degrees Wednesday night! The NWS has also issued a Winter Weather Advisory for ice from 6 am-midnight tomorrow.

I envy you, sir.

[jasons2k]

man if only those single digits would make it down here! Thats what i call amazing weather!

Same here. I’ve never experienced single digits before. Single digits with wind chills well into the negatives would be so bad as* to experience. Maybe one day it’ll happen here, but I’m not even sure it’s scientifically possible to even get that cold down here anymore with how everything is warming up.

It’s cool to experience but much more fun and relaxing up in the mountains than in someplace that’s not equipped for it, especially when you have property and family to look after.

Stratton may have different thoughts about single digits in Houston some day when he’s paying his own bills

[DoctorMu]

man if only those single digits would make it down here! Thats what i call amazing weather!

Same here. I’ve never experienced single digits before. Single digits with wind chills well into the negatives would be so bad as* to experience. Maybe one day it’ll happen here, but I’m not even sure it’s scientifically possible to even get that cold down here anymore with how everything is warming up.

We had them (single digits) with the snow, ice pack in Feb 2021. Layer with ski mask or hoodie and it's not too bad, especially with a 120 lb yellow lab in her home environment pulling you on walks.

[DoctorMu]

man if only those single digits would make it down here! Thats what i call amazing weather!

Same here. I’ve never experienced single digits before. Single digits with wind chills well into the negatives would be so bad as* to experience. Maybe one day it’ll happen here, but I’m not even sure it’s scientifically possible to even get that cold down here anymore with how everything is warming up.

It’s cool to experience but much more fun and relaxing up in the mountains than in someplace that’s not equipped for it, especially when you have property and family to look after.

Stratton may have different thoughts about single digits in Houston some day when he’s paying his own bills

Hell, the summer in CLL and lack of rain + our alkaline water kills many of our plants. Winter isn't the problem. But then I don't plant tropical plants in a subtropical climate.

[jasons2k]

Same here. I’ve never experienced single digits before. Single digits with wind chills well into the negatives would be so bad as* to experience. Maybe one day it’ll happen here, but I’m not even sure it’s scientifically possible to even get that cold down here anymore with how everything is warming up.

It’s cool to experience but much more fun and relaxing up in the mountains than in someplace that’s not equipped for it, especially when you have property and family to look after.

Stratton may have different thoughts about single digits in Houston some day when he’s paying his own bills

Hell, the summer in CLL and lack of rain + our alkaline water kills many of our plants. Winter isn't the problem. But then I don't plant tropical plants in a subtropical climate.

Not so much anymore. Plus, I can afford my own losses

[kyzsl51]

man if only those single digits would make it down here! Thats what i call amazing weather!

Same here. I’ve never experienced single digits before. Single digits with wind chills well into the negatives would be so bad as* to experience. Maybe one day it’ll happen here, but I’m not even sure it’s scientifically possible to even get that cold down here anymore with how everything is warming up.

I understand the warming and stuff.....but before 1989 i think the only time we saw single digits before that was 1930? Correct me if i am wrong but thats a period of about 60 years. So its not at all a common occurance. So who knows?

[Cpv17]

man if only those single digits would make it down here! Thats what i call amazing weather!

Same here. I’ve never experienced single digits before. Single digits with wind chills well into the negatives would be so bad as* to experience. Maybe one day it’ll happen here, but I’m not even sure it’s scientifically possible to even get that cold down here anymore with how everything is warming up.

I understand the warming and stuff.....but before 1989 i think the only time we saw single digits before that was 1930? Correct me if i am wrong but thats a period of about 60 years. So its not at all a common occurance. So who knows?

I think in 1899 it happened here. I got down to 14°F in Feb 2021, so not quite single digits. Although, I think some places did get down to single digits across SE TX during Feb 21.

[Ptarmigan]

man if only those single digits would make it down here! Thats what i call amazing weather!

It would be cool to see single digits in Houston.

I wonder if next winter will be cold. February and December 1989 were cold. 1989 started as La Nina and ended as Neutral.

[Ptarmigan]

man if only those single digits would make it down here! Thats what i call amazing weather!

Same here. I’ve never experienced single digits before. Single digits with wind chills well into the negatives would be so bad as* to experience. Maybe one day it’ll happen here, but I’m not even sure it’s scientifically possible to even get that cold down here anymore with how everything is warming up.

I understand the warming and stuff.....but before 1989 i think the only time we saw single digits before that was 1930? Correct me if i am wrong but thats a period of about 60 years. So its not at all a common occurance. So who knows?

Single digits in Houston were recorded twice in February 1899, January 1930, and December 1989. It likely happened in January 1886.

[tireman4]

The Eyewall
Dude, where’s my snowstorm?
By Matt Lanza on February 18, 2025

Funny things happen in the world of weather. As a meteorologist, I have seen more than my fair share of busted forecasts, surprise hits, forecasts that actually panned out, and surprise misses. Another snow event looks likely to join the long, long list of the ones that got away for parts of the Mid-Atlantic. As of Sunday we discussed a winter storm both in the context of the Mid-South, which is still intact but also for the Mid-Atlantic. Just for comparison, here is the snow forecast over the last several model runs for PM Wednesday and Thursday morning in the Mid-Atlantic.


Going back to Friday, the snow forecast (this, from the European model) has cratered over the Mid-Atlantic, as the storm track has become more suppressed.
That is about as ugly an outcome as I've seen for a snow lover. And that's the European model, one of the better performing ones historically with snowstorms. So what the heck happened?

Well, basically, nothing comes together in time. If you look at the last few days of models runs from the European model, you can see a slow trend away from meaningfulness. On Saturday, the Euro depicted a 987 mb low off Delmarva. On Sunday it shifted a little to the southeast, and then yesterday, it popped up to 1001 mb and well southeast. The consequence here is that the storm basically never gets together now off the East Coast in a position close enough to deliver snow to the Mid-Atlantic, with the exception of maybe the Virginia Tidewater and northeastern North Carolina.


A comparison of ECMWF model runs over the last 4 days shows the surface low on Thursday before sunrise shifting from near Delmarva to well off the North Carolina coast.
You can look up higher in the atmosphere and see how the more bombastic idea of a storm near the Mid-Atlantic coast gradually faded over the last few days too.


A stronger trough and disturbance around 10,000 feet up on the models over the weekend has opened up some and shifted south, reducing how far north the impacts get.
You can also look under more of the hood here and see how the ensemble members of the European model summed things up. The number of members with 4 inches of snow or more got to 80 or 90 percent in portions of Delmarva on Sunday before plunging to 10 percent yesterday.


Of the European ensemble model's 51 members, nearly 40 to 80 percent showed a 4"+ snowstorm in their Saturday runs over a broad chunk of the Mid-Atlantic. That shrunk to just a small area south of Salisbury, MD and north of Cape Hatteras today.
Storms like this with such a potent push of cold air require a balancing act to come to fruition on the East Coast in particular. If one of the pieces of the puzzle doesn't time itself perfectly, the whole thing can shift markedly in one direction or another. In this case, the storm didn't disappear, it just gets going too far southeast and offshore to make much difference. Suppression is the word we often use, and the whole mess got suppressed to the southeast. And thus, your snow forecast maps reflect the change in ways that will disappoint many winter lovers in DC or Philadelphia or my former stomping grounds of South Jersey.


This will be a potent snowstorm for the Virginia Tidewater, including Virginia Beach and Norfolk and a decent little storm for Richmond as well.
In fact, this whole mess gets so suppressed that even as the storm comes northeast, it passes far enough off the coast of Canada to even avoid impacts in the Maritimes. Now, notably, the 7 to 13 inch forecast for Norfolk is actually quite impressive. If the high end of that range were to verify, it would be a top ten storm for the Tidewater and the biggest since 2010. Most areas will not see more than 10 inches in all likelihood, but either way, this will be a healthy snowstorm for Hampton Roads.

Overall, this proves another lesson in treading carefully with all storms, especially winter ones. This is one reason why the NWS usually doesn't provide snow forecast maps more than 3 days in advance of winter storms. Often times, so much changes so erratically in that day 3 to 7 timeframe that those maps have little real value. Sharing speculation may be fun, but it won't really give you a better reputation as a forecaster.

[tireman4]

906
FXUS64 KHGX 181202
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
602 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 357 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

It has been a very swingy winter this year, where we have
routinely found ourselves very much above normal...until we are
very much not. An advancing cold front will give us a shot at
showers and thunderstorms today, followed by a shot of air behind
the front that will remind us that it is indeed still winter.
Though wintry precip does not appear in the cards at this time,
we`ve got a cold stretch ahead of us. Here are the highlights:

- Showers and storms ahead of and along the front will generally
be manageable, but there will be some potential for 1-2 inch
per hour storms around and east of the Houston metro. There is a
marginal risk (threat level 1 of 4) for excessive rain due to
this potential.
- On the waters, strong winds behind the front tonight and
Wednesday are prompting a gale warning on all coastal waters and
a wind advisory on coastal peninsulas and islands. Folks right
on the Gulf will want to get those loose items secured today
before the front rolls through.
- Cold air surges in behind the front on gusty north winds; look
for wind chills below 20 degrees north and west of the Houston
metro. These areas have a cold weather advisory in place.
- Tomorrow night, even colder air has prompted an extreme cold
watch as the coldest wind chills look to drop to the high single
digits. In portions of the Houston metro, potential wind chills
range from 25 degrees down to around 15 degrees. A hard freeze
is most likely north of the Houston metro, though it could
extend into the northern suburbs and into rural areas well west
of the metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 357 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

This winter has seemed like it`s either been full out spring, or
it has been winter. A cold front currently up around the Red River
is on its way southward today is going to put us right back in a
reminder that February is still a winter month. Until then,
however, we`ll have a roughly seasonable day - perhaps a bit
colder thanks to cloud cover - along with increasing potential for
showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Expect chances for a
smattering of showers to gradually grow later this morning, with
rain showers becoming likely late this afternoon into this
evening, before the frontal passage puts an end to any rain
potential late tonight.

One thing we will want to watch out for is locally heavy rain.
Forecast soundings are...not impressive at all, and I`d expect
rain rates to be pretty manageable. That said, mean LREF
precipitable water values are around/above the 90th percentile
across Southeast Texas, and around the 97th percentile coastward
of I-10, so we do have ample moisture available. CAM guidance
does show some convective pattern to the rainfall late this
afternoon into the evening, in spite of the generally lousy
soundings. So, if we can manage one or two decently strong storms,
those particular cells could produce 1-2 inch per hour rain rates.
HREF guidance suggests a 40 percent chance of 1 inch per hour rain
around the Houston metro, and a 60-80 percent chance of 1 inch per
hour rates east of the metro, along with a 10ish percent chance
of 2 inch per hour rain rates. While not all that scary, it does
show that there is some signal that the strongest storms will be
capable of tapping into the unseasonable amounts of moisture
available to today`s rains. It seems to match up well with WPC`s
marginal risk for excessive rain (threat level 1 of 4)
today/tonight.

Deeper into the night tonight, and even more so tomorrow night,
focus turns towards incoming cold air. On the plus side, rain
doesn`t look to linger too long after the frontal passage, and
the arrival of the wintry air does look to lag a little bit
behind the front, which should keep any concerns for anything
frozen falling out of the sky at bay. Temperatures, on the other
hand, are showing a stronger potential of reminding us that yes,
it is still winter in Southeast Texas. Expect temperatures to fall
into the low 40s and 30s across the area late tonight into the
first hours of Wednesday morning. Freezing temps should be fairly
limited in area, held behind a line arcing from roughly Columbus
to Navasota to Huntsville to Crockett. Paired with the expected
strong north winds though, and we`re still looking at some cold
wind chills late tonight. Expect those to bottom out in the teens
and 20s for all but right on the immediate Gulf coast, and low
enough to require a cold weather advisory along the western edge
(where winds are strongest) and northern edge (where temperatures
are lowest) of our forecast area. This is where we can expect wind
chill to be driven below 20 degrees, and into the 10-15 degree
range at their lowest up around Caldwell.

Don`t look for things to get much better tomorrow, as continued
cold air and lingering cloud cover to hold daytime highs down well
below average. Even our warmest spots right on the Gulf will
struggle to reach 50 degrees, while folks up in that
Caldwell-B/CS-Madisonville-Crockett stretch may not even do better
than the upper 30s! This, of course, sets us up for an even colder
night tomorrow night. Cloud cover will be diminished, allowing for
more efficient cooling. And while winds shouldn`t get too calm,
that will be a double-edged sword. Sure, it may mitigate just how
cold the temperatures fall, but it will also drive wind chills
down even lower. For now, I`ve got an extreme cold watch issued
for points at and northwestward of Palacios to Houston to
Livingston for the potential to see wind chills below 15 degrees.
Ultimately, I expect the potential to meet the extreme cold
threshold (10 degrees north, 15 degrees south) will be more
limited to the north and west, with some only reaching the
threshold for wind chills justifying a cold weather advisory (20
north/25 south) elsewhere. But here at the watch phase, I don`t
have the confidence to place precisely where that line is going to
be. For now, I will roll with placing a watch roughly in line with
the 50 percent probability contour for reaching the warning
threshold.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

1045mb surface high centered over the Central Plains starts to
slowly tack east on Thursday. While CAA slowly weakens, this cold-
dry airmass is progged to remain in place just a tad bit longer.
Lofted moisture with building cloud cover should limit overnight
cooling, keeping lows for Friday morning in the 20s to 30s. These
overcast conditions will also limit heating on Friday, keeping highs
a tad cooler that afternoon compared to Thursday, but still
generally in the upper 30s/upper 40s.

Our next bout of active weather comes from a mid/upper level trough,
which will be passing through the Four Corners on Friday. As it
draws closers to SE Texas, a coastal trough/Gulf low will set up
over the Western Gulf coast. The influx of moisture from this
feature with forcing aloft from the trough should bring increasing
rain chances, resulting in cold and dreary conditions on Saturday.
PWs remain tame, generally around 1.0-1.3" and with a shallower warm
cloud layer and lacking instability, the threat of heavy rainfall
with this system remains low for the time being. The upper trough
and associated surface features should push off to the east
overnight, with rain chances tapering down Sunday Morning.

Thinning sky cover should bring a brief warm-up on Sunday, even
moreso on Monday as surface high pressure is pushed into
north/northeast Gulf, thus establishing onshore flow an WAA.
Uncertainty grows high by this point in the forecast, though signs
point towards more active weather in store for later next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 602 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

For the moment, things are generally VFR with a smattering of MVFR
CIGs about the area. But broadly speaking, things are about to
become a mess. That MVFR should become widespread through the
morning, and upstream IFR indicates those CIGs should take over
around mid-day, with patchy fog. Meanwhile, showers will begin to
develop going into the afternoon, with highest coverage and best
potential for thunder coming in the late afternoon and early
evening ahead of a cold front. Shortly before midnight tonight,
expecting front to sweep through SE TX, which will bring an end to
the rain, and also gusty north winds and gradually (mostly seen
only in the IAH extended) some CIG improvement.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025

Onshore flow strengthens today ahead of an approaching strong cold
front, warranting the need for caution flags at times while showers
and thunderstorms develop across the region. Patchy sea fog could
form ahead of this cold front as winds ease up, especially over the
southwestern waters near Matagorda bay. The cold front will push off
the coast late Tuesday night, bringing strong offshore winds,
frequent gusts to Gale force and seas of 6 to 9 feet in it`s wake.
Lower water levels could develop in the bays, especially at low
tide. Gale warnings will be in effect from midnight through
Wednesday afternoon for these rough conditions. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed across the Gulf waters and bays
afterwards into the weekend, especially on Friday and Saturday as a
coastal trough forms offshore. This feature should bring another
round of showers and thunderstorms across the waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 62 29 40 22 / 70 60 0 0
Houston (IAH) 63 38 46 28 / 60 80 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 65 44 50 34 / 70 80 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM CST Wednesday for
TXZ163-164-176-177-195>198-210-211-226-235.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
morning for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-210>213-226-227-235-
236-335.

Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Wednesday for
TXZ436>439.

GM...Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Wednesday for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
GMZ335-355-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03

[jasons2k]

I’m not a fan of replacing the Wind Chill Advisories with Cold Weather Advisories. Now there’s no distinction between the two and it’s confusing for people. Sometimes new isn’t better. I’m a big believer in when they dumb things down, it just makes things worse.

Anyway, looking like the 27-28 range at my place Thursday AM, nothing extraordinary for February 20. A lot of things are already blooming so it’s a good thing it’s not getting colder than that!!

[DoctorMu]

man if only those single digits would make it down here! Thats what i call amazing weather!

Same here. I’ve never experienced single digits before. Single digits with wind chills well into the negatives would be so bad as* to experience. Maybe one day it’ll happen here, but I’m not even sure it’s scientifically possible to even get that cold down here anymore with how everything is warming up.

I understand the warming and stuff.....but before 1989 i think the only time we saw single digits before that was 1930? Correct me if i am wrong but thats a period of about 60 years. So its not at all a common occurance. So who knows?

The cold air is dislodged from the poles more often because of the reduction in ice pack.