Folks in Louisiana and points east have the potential for EF2 or greater Tornadoes when these storms get kicked off..if any of you live in those areas please pay close attention to the weather.
Edit to just say watch your local weather stations over the coming days. I'm not trying to suggest this is going to transpire today.
February 2025
-
biggerbyte
- Posts: 1396
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:15 am
- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
- Contact:
Yeah, I resprained my deltoid ligament in the ankle yesterday hitting a traffic jam at the bottom of some stairs. I was going to run for some walking and running when I got home. Need to delay the heat as long as possible! Today would have been perfect! Sunshine and cool.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 13, 2025 2:26 pm Amen to that! The longer i can delay having to bring out my electric mosquito tennis racket swatter, the better !
Last edited by DoctorMu on Thu Feb 13, 2025 3:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Saturday kicks off Severe season in the Piney Woods, Louisiana, and Mississippi. I'm concerned about a robust early Spring severe season in the South.
Man, I really hope your ankle heals quickly for you. They can be a challenge. I’m just now about to get back into the routine after a re-sprain last fall.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Feb 13, 2025 2:59 pmYeah, I resprained my deltoid ligament in the ankle yesterday hitting a traffic jam at the bottom of some stairs. I was going to run for some walking and running when I got home. Need to delay the heat as long as possible! Today would have been perfect! Sunshine and cool.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 13, 2025 2:26 pm Amen to that! The longer i can delay having to bring out my electric mosquito tennis racket swatter, the better !
Agreed on severe weather season. Dixie Alley is going to really get it this year.
Yikes!!
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 24.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 24.
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biggerbyte
- Posts: 1396
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:15 am
- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
- Contact:
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biggerbyte
- Posts: 1396
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:15 am
- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
- Contact:
Gone get nasty round hur, pardner.
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Ice has been introduced into my forecast in Weimar
Team #NeverSummer
No sh**?
39°F/22°F on the 19th with ice here. Prolonged cool/cold is looking more likely.
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2616
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Damn! I’ll take these warm spells during the winter if it leads to more winter weather events.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Thu Feb 13, 2025 9:08 pmYep on Wednesday
The winter forecast keep changing. I suspect we could see a freeze. Not ruling out wintry precipitation.
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biggerbyte
- Posts: 1396
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:15 am
- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
- Contact:
Next weeks cold front is going to bring the colder temps so far. Unfortunately, it's a very shallow airmass. Ice is the outcome of what looks to be our next weather event.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
49
FXUS64 KHGX 141150
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
550 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
Broad surface high pressure over the Central CONUS continues to
shift to the east, which has gradually started to bring about a
return to an onshore flow regime across the area with recent surface
observations indicating a growing easterly component of the surface
wind. This trend is expected to continue over the course of the day
today, with surface winds shifting to the southeast this evening.
Rainfall returns to the forecast today as global models continue to
show the development of a weak area of low pressure to our
southwest. An associated surface warm front will march towards the
SE TX coast, which, combined with rising low-level moisture and the
passage of a weak impulse embedded within the midlevel flow will
bring about scattered shower chances over the course of the day
today. In general, PoP numbers remain similar to that of the
previous forecast packages with most locations remaining in the 30-
40% range through tonight. Daytime highs will be blunted by
increasing low-level stratus over the course of the day, thanks to
efficient moisture transport associated with a strengthening low-
level jet. As such, highs will generally be confined to the 50s,
with coastal locations breaking just above 60. With this cloud cover
remaining in place overnight tonight, high/low temperature spreads
will generally be quite low with lows in the lower to mid 50s area-
wide.
The potential for some stronger storms remains in the forecast for
Saturday. A rapid increase in moisture is anticipated early in the
day as the area sits within the warm sector of a surface low
traversing the Central Plains, with steady moist advection driving
surface dew points into the upper 60s by Saturday afternoon. Showers
and storms are expected to develop along and ahead of an approaching
cold front associated with the aforementioned surface low. Parameter
space continues to show a high-shear, low-CAPE environment typical
of wintertime events for this region. Despite surface instability
sitting around 750-1000 J/kg, bulk shear in the range of 40-50kt and
0-1km SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 support the possibility of strong
wind gusts and/or isolated tornadoes as a cohesive line of
thunderstorms moves through the area during the afternoon. While the
largest threat remains well to our east/northeast, SPC continues to
maintain a Slight risk area for locations NE of Metro Houston. Highs
on Saturday will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s given the strong
WAA regime in place. As the cold front moves through the area, we
will see another round of gusty northerly winds overnight as lows
drop into the upper 30s/40s in its wake.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
Cooler and drier conditions set in on Sunday behind the cold front,
with highs sticking to the 50s during the daytime. Lows for Monday
morning drop into mid 20s/30s inland and lower 40s over the coast
and Gulf waters. Surface high pressure over the Plains should
push off to the east next week, veering winds to the
east/southeast and re-establishing onshore flow Monday afternoon.
As a result, temperatures briefly pick up on Tuesday with highs
reaching the mid 50s/upper 60s, possibly hitting the 70 degree
mark closer to the coast.
This warming trend will be abruptly halted by a strong upper level
low digging over the Northern Plains/Mississippi River Valley. This
disturbance will push an Arctic Cold front through SE Texas Tuesday
night, unleashing another spell of frigid weather upon SE Texas.
Model and ensemble guidance shows a strong 1040-1050mb surface high
filling in across the Plains, with NAEFS SLP reaching above the
99th percentile. 1000mb mean temperature anomalies in NAEFS also
range from -2 to -3 for Thursday morning, coinciding where the
slew of NBM/LREF members denote the coldest period in the
forecast. Though, NBM seems a tad too warm with respect to
dewpoints and temperatures. Mostly high clouds are forecasted
during this period, and even then LREF members suggest that this
cloud cover could be a tad overdone, so the spread between low
temperatures and dewpoints could be closer. In addition, the
dominant LREF cluster places higher midlevel heights downstream of
the aforementioned low, suggesting a slower eastward progression
of the system, which appears to be reflected in the stronger push
of cold air further south in some deterministic guidance. Given
the overall setup, it seems like a safe bet to aim much lower than
base NBM, especially considering that these global models cannot
resolve shallow cold layers. With all this in mind, I leaned
closer to the 25th/10th percentile NBM with some bias corrected
ECMWF which seems to better capture land/water differences.
This puts the current forecasted low temperatures for Wednesday
night/Thursday morning in the 20s near the coast to upper teens
further north. With breezy conditions, wind chill values could reach
the lower teens, and maybe even lower depending on how this
system evolves over the next several days. Don`t get attached to
these values, as they could still change quite a bit over the next
few days. The main take away is that SE Texas is starting down
another outbreak of frigid weather, with hard freezes and even
extreme cold possible across the region.
As an extension of my forecasting skills, I`ll be predicting what
you`re probably thinking right now. "Will this be like that
snowstorm on the 21st?!" Temperature wise, maybe, at least in part
to the greater southerly extent of this cold airmass and the
added wind chill. In terms of wintry precipitation... not close by
a long shot. As it stands right now, the chances of getting
wintery precipitation are very low, at least for SE Texas. Global
models sweep away nearly all the moisture by the time the
subfreezing temperatures arrive. But as previously mentioned,
these global models don`t have the vertical resolution to resolve
some of those shallower cold layers, so it`s not completely out of
the realm of possibility. Regardless, wintery precipitation is
unlikely at the moment, and cold temperatures/low wind chill
values will be of more concern.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 541 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
VFR cigs will gradually transition to MVFR over the next several
hours, with cloud bases expected to eventually sit just below
2000ft through the end of the afternoon. Scattered showers will
approach from the south beginning at the coast near 18Z and
progressing northward through approximately 00Z, producing brief
visibility reductions at times. Expect winds to shift to the east
and later the southeast by this evening, with wind speeds
increasing overnight ahead of the approach of a cold front late on
Saturday. Further deterioration to IFR cigs is expected this
evening, remaining in place into tomorrow. Additional showers
will begin to develop after 06Z tonight, becoming more widespread
by tomorrow morning. Looking beyond the TAF period, a line of
thunderstorms is expected to move through the area on Saturday
afternoon, bringing with it the potential for strong wind gusts.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
Winds are expected to veer from northeast to east throughout the
day, ushering in moisture return and bringing scatted showers. A
short lull in wind speeds and wave heights is expected this
afternoon, but should strengthen to around Advisory levels again
later tonight as winds veer south/southeasterly. Returning moisture
could also bring patches of sea fog in some spots beginning this
evening, but wind speeds should be high enough to prevent fog from
becoming dense or widespread enough to impact navigation. Another
cold front will push off the coast Saturday night, bringing stronger
winds and seas through the rest of the weekend. Onshore flow returns
Monday afternoon with another lull in winds/seas early next week. An
Arctic cold front should push offshore late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning, bringing another round of high seas and strong
offshore winds with gusts to Gale force possible. Will also have
to be on the lookout for low tide/water levels behind this Arctic
front.
03
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 54 50 68 35 / 30 40 40 0
Houston (IAH) 57 53 75 41 / 30 30 70 10
Galveston (GLS) 64 59 70 43 / 40 10 30 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ370-
375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...03
FXUS64 KHGX 141150
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
550 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
Broad surface high pressure over the Central CONUS continues to
shift to the east, which has gradually started to bring about a
return to an onshore flow regime across the area with recent surface
observations indicating a growing easterly component of the surface
wind. This trend is expected to continue over the course of the day
today, with surface winds shifting to the southeast this evening.
Rainfall returns to the forecast today as global models continue to
show the development of a weak area of low pressure to our
southwest. An associated surface warm front will march towards the
SE TX coast, which, combined with rising low-level moisture and the
passage of a weak impulse embedded within the midlevel flow will
bring about scattered shower chances over the course of the day
today. In general, PoP numbers remain similar to that of the
previous forecast packages with most locations remaining in the 30-
40% range through tonight. Daytime highs will be blunted by
increasing low-level stratus over the course of the day, thanks to
efficient moisture transport associated with a strengthening low-
level jet. As such, highs will generally be confined to the 50s,
with coastal locations breaking just above 60. With this cloud cover
remaining in place overnight tonight, high/low temperature spreads
will generally be quite low with lows in the lower to mid 50s area-
wide.
The potential for some stronger storms remains in the forecast for
Saturday. A rapid increase in moisture is anticipated early in the
day as the area sits within the warm sector of a surface low
traversing the Central Plains, with steady moist advection driving
surface dew points into the upper 60s by Saturday afternoon. Showers
and storms are expected to develop along and ahead of an approaching
cold front associated with the aforementioned surface low. Parameter
space continues to show a high-shear, low-CAPE environment typical
of wintertime events for this region. Despite surface instability
sitting around 750-1000 J/kg, bulk shear in the range of 40-50kt and
0-1km SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 support the possibility of strong
wind gusts and/or isolated tornadoes as a cohesive line of
thunderstorms moves through the area during the afternoon. While the
largest threat remains well to our east/northeast, SPC continues to
maintain a Slight risk area for locations NE of Metro Houston. Highs
on Saturday will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s given the strong
WAA regime in place. As the cold front moves through the area, we
will see another round of gusty northerly winds overnight as lows
drop into the upper 30s/40s in its wake.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
Cooler and drier conditions set in on Sunday behind the cold front,
with highs sticking to the 50s during the daytime. Lows for Monday
morning drop into mid 20s/30s inland and lower 40s over the coast
and Gulf waters. Surface high pressure over the Plains should
push off to the east next week, veering winds to the
east/southeast and re-establishing onshore flow Monday afternoon.
As a result, temperatures briefly pick up on Tuesday with highs
reaching the mid 50s/upper 60s, possibly hitting the 70 degree
mark closer to the coast.
This warming trend will be abruptly halted by a strong upper level
low digging over the Northern Plains/Mississippi River Valley. This
disturbance will push an Arctic Cold front through SE Texas Tuesday
night, unleashing another spell of frigid weather upon SE Texas.
Model and ensemble guidance shows a strong 1040-1050mb surface high
filling in across the Plains, with NAEFS SLP reaching above the
99th percentile. 1000mb mean temperature anomalies in NAEFS also
range from -2 to -3 for Thursday morning, coinciding where the
slew of NBM/LREF members denote the coldest period in the
forecast. Though, NBM seems a tad too warm with respect to
dewpoints and temperatures. Mostly high clouds are forecasted
during this period, and even then LREF members suggest that this
cloud cover could be a tad overdone, so the spread between low
temperatures and dewpoints could be closer. In addition, the
dominant LREF cluster places higher midlevel heights downstream of
the aforementioned low, suggesting a slower eastward progression
of the system, which appears to be reflected in the stronger push
of cold air further south in some deterministic guidance. Given
the overall setup, it seems like a safe bet to aim much lower than
base NBM, especially considering that these global models cannot
resolve shallow cold layers. With all this in mind, I leaned
closer to the 25th/10th percentile NBM with some bias corrected
ECMWF which seems to better capture land/water differences.
This puts the current forecasted low temperatures for Wednesday
night/Thursday morning in the 20s near the coast to upper teens
further north. With breezy conditions, wind chill values could reach
the lower teens, and maybe even lower depending on how this
system evolves over the next several days. Don`t get attached to
these values, as they could still change quite a bit over the next
few days. The main take away is that SE Texas is starting down
another outbreak of frigid weather, with hard freezes and even
extreme cold possible across the region.
As an extension of my forecasting skills, I`ll be predicting what
you`re probably thinking right now. "Will this be like that
snowstorm on the 21st?!" Temperature wise, maybe, at least in part
to the greater southerly extent of this cold airmass and the
added wind chill. In terms of wintry precipitation... not close by
a long shot. As it stands right now, the chances of getting
wintery precipitation are very low, at least for SE Texas. Global
models sweep away nearly all the moisture by the time the
subfreezing temperatures arrive. But as previously mentioned,
these global models don`t have the vertical resolution to resolve
some of those shallower cold layers, so it`s not completely out of
the realm of possibility. Regardless, wintery precipitation is
unlikely at the moment, and cold temperatures/low wind chill
values will be of more concern.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 541 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
VFR cigs will gradually transition to MVFR over the next several
hours, with cloud bases expected to eventually sit just below
2000ft through the end of the afternoon. Scattered showers will
approach from the south beginning at the coast near 18Z and
progressing northward through approximately 00Z, producing brief
visibility reductions at times. Expect winds to shift to the east
and later the southeast by this evening, with wind speeds
increasing overnight ahead of the approach of a cold front late on
Saturday. Further deterioration to IFR cigs is expected this
evening, remaining in place into tomorrow. Additional showers
will begin to develop after 06Z tonight, becoming more widespread
by tomorrow morning. Looking beyond the TAF period, a line of
thunderstorms is expected to move through the area on Saturday
afternoon, bringing with it the potential for strong wind gusts.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
Winds are expected to veer from northeast to east throughout the
day, ushering in moisture return and bringing scatted showers. A
short lull in wind speeds and wave heights is expected this
afternoon, but should strengthen to around Advisory levels again
later tonight as winds veer south/southeasterly. Returning moisture
could also bring patches of sea fog in some spots beginning this
evening, but wind speeds should be high enough to prevent fog from
becoming dense or widespread enough to impact navigation. Another
cold front will push off the coast Saturday night, bringing stronger
winds and seas through the rest of the weekend. Onshore flow returns
Monday afternoon with another lull in winds/seas early next week. An
Arctic cold front should push offshore late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning, bringing another round of high seas and strong
offshore winds with gusts to Gale force possible. Will also have
to be on the lookout for low tide/water levels behind this Arctic
front.
03
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 54 50 68 35 / 30 40 40 0
Houston (IAH) 57 53 75 41 / 30 30 70 10
Galveston (GLS) 64 59 70 43 / 40 10 30 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ370-
375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...03
Seeing 18°F Wed night on NOAA's forecast.
NWS seems to be riding the Euro closely (can’t blame them). They have me down to 22 next Thursday AM. Ouch. There is going to be a steep gradient next week across the state and the “fight zone” Dr. Mu has been highlighting appears to be the right spot.
At this point, honestly - bottoming-out here anywhere between 20-30 wouldn’t surprise me either way. It’s gonna be close.
At this point, honestly - bottoming-out here anywhere between 20-30 wouldn’t surprise me either way. It’s gonna be close.
Ice, Ice, baby.
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-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
HGX on potential Wintery Precip....
As an extension of my forecasting skills, I`ll be predicting what
you`re probably thinking right now. "Will this be like that
snowstorm on the 21st?!" Temperature wise, maybe, at least in part
to the greater southerly extent of this cold airmass and the
added wind chill. In terms of wintry precipitation... not close by
a long shot. As it stands right now, the chances of getting
wintery precipitation are very low, at least for SE Texas. Global
models sweep away nearly all the moisture by the time the
subfreezing temperatures arrive. But as previously mentioned,
these global models don`t have the vertical resolution to resolve
some of those shallower cold layers, so it`s not completely out of
the realm of possibility. Regardless, wintery precipitation is
unlikely at the moment, and cold temperatures/low wind chill
values will be of more concern.
As an extension of my forecasting skills, I`ll be predicting what
you`re probably thinking right now. "Will this be like that
snowstorm on the 21st?!" Temperature wise, maybe, at least in part
to the greater southerly extent of this cold airmass and the
added wind chill. In terms of wintry precipitation... not close by
a long shot. As it stands right now, the chances of getting
wintery precipitation are very low, at least for SE Texas. Global
models sweep away nearly all the moisture by the time the
subfreezing temperatures arrive. But as previously mentioned,
these global models don`t have the vertical resolution to resolve
some of those shallower cold layers, so it`s not completely out of
the realm of possibility. Regardless, wintery precipitation is
unlikely at the moment, and cold temperatures/low wind chill
values will be of more concern.
https://x.com/weathercast3/status/18904 ... _m1NXPw4Cg
This looks amazing!! 40-45 below normal for us!
And I love how the models are shifting the core of the cold over towards Montana compared to the Dakotas.
This looks amazing!! 40-45 below normal for us!
And I love how the models are shifting the core of the cold over towards Montana compared to the Dakotas.
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