February 2025

[jasons2k]

is that cold air coming here or staying in north tx?

The front will come through, yes, and we may see a light freeze, but the bulk of the cold air will get pushed over to the east again. We’ll get a glancing blow.

[Stratton20]

we will see, just like pir last winter weather event, you dont need the core of the cold air to get winter weather down here, just enough cold air and a shortwave/ coastal low to interact with that cold air and its game on

[jasons2k]

we will see, just like pir last winter weather event, you dont need the core of the cold air to get winter weather down here, just enough cold air and a shortwave/ coastal low to interact with that cold air and its game on

The last “winter weather event” was a completely different setup and I got down to 18 degrees. This will be nothing like that, not even close, not with the 540 thickness line stuck in Arkansas.

[Stratton20]

Gotta love it when the Euro data crashes and is delayed, run should have started 2 hours ago

[jasons2k]

Gotta love it when the Euro data crashes and is delayed, run should have started 2 hours ago

It really doesn’t matter.

[TexasBreeze]

Someone seems a tad bit grumpy today. Maybe the sun needs to come out for awhile outside!

[DoctorMu]

DoctorMu i think the hazardous outlook is for the following week, definitely will have several more freezes thats for sure, especially with the front on saturday , will be interesting to see how cold we can get, but definitely beats having the mosquitoes in full force lol

I'm aware. We're getting a frost/freeze tonight, then Saturday and Sunday nights.

8-9 days out: we'll see. PDO is negative, NAO positive. GEM and GFS have some frosty nights... and looky here:

[tireman4]

A very active weather period is beginning currently. Despite the
return of more humid air, visibility has stayed good over the
waters so this evening. Eventually some patchy fog may yet develop
overnight, though not as widespread or as dense as seen during
this long, foggy stretch. In addition, we will be monitoring the
potential for some strong storms late tonight into early
Wednesday morning ahead of a cold front. That front is expected
to push off the coast Wednesday evening, fully putting an end to
the fog and storm threats. Winds will shift to the north and
northeast, increasing to 20 to 30 knots overnight. This may cause
a need to be on the lookout for low water levels in the bays, and
small Craft Advisories will likely be required through at least
Thursday and potentially into a portion of the day Friday.
Unsettled weather conditions will continue into the weekend with a
warm front Friday night followed by an even stronger front
Saturday night.

[mcheer23]

CPC drops a high risk of hazardous temps into central texas.

[tireman4]

762
FXUS64 KHGX 122015
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
215 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1243 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Rain will continue to work its way through the area along and
ahead of the stationary boundary this afternoon. Speaking of the
stationary boundary...this has managed to create a rather tricky
temperature forecast for today. The front is currently bisecting
Southeast Texas from SW to NE with a VERY sharp temperature
gradient. To put it into perspective, Sugar Land is sitting at
57F while Pearland is sitting at 77F. This boundary is expected
to slowly sag SE towards the coast, brining cooler and drier air
in from behind. Models did not have a good handle on this sharp
temperature gradient, so there was a lot of hand editing with the
temperature forecast this afternoon. Lows for tonight will cool
into the 30s across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods (a few
locations may reach subfreezing temperatures). Elsewhere, lows
will be in the 40s.

Northerly winds will continue to bring in colder air, and with the
CAA this will keep highs on the colder side. Temperatures
tomorrow will top out in the 40s to low 50s. Lows for Thursday
night will be in the 30s to mid 40s north of I-10 and in the 40s
to low 50s south of I-10.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1243 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Subtropical ridge of high pressure will push off the Atlantic coast
into the weekend, putting the region in between it and a low level
trough ejecting out of the Rocky Mountains into the Central Plains.
This will allow for onshore flow to return across the area to end
the week, and will allow for temperatures to rebound into the 70s
and 80s Friday into the first part of the day Saturday before
another frontal boundary pushes through Saturday evening. This
front will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms across
the area as it moves west to east across the region late in the day
on Saturday.

Behind the front, overnight low temperatures Monday and Tuesday
mornings will range from near freezing across our northern counties
to the low 40s along the coast. A slight warm up occurs Monday into
Tuesday before another frontal boundary pushes through late
Tuesday/early Wednesday, dropping our temperatures back below normal
behind it.

McNeel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

A line of scattered showers is currently pushing across the
Houston Metro into our eastern zones along a frontal boundary.
An isolated rumble of thunder or two cannot be completely ruled
out. Winds behind the front will shift to the N to NNW at 10-15
kts with higher gusts. These gusty northerly winds will usher in
cooler and drier air, gradually clearing conditions areawide and
putting an end to the extended foggy spell the region has endured
the past few days.

McNeel

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

A cold front is in the process of pushing off the coast and will
continue moving through the Gulf waters this evening. North winds
will steadily increase to 20-30kt overnight and seas will build to 4-
6ft nearshore & 7-11ft offshore. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect, and gusts close to gale cannot be ruled out on elevated
structures offshore late tonight and Thursday morning. Unsettled/
unfavorable marine conditions will likely persist through the
weekend with a warm front moving back inland Friday night followed
by another cold front Saturday night. In addition to elevated winds
and seas, we may to keep an eye out for potential low water
conditions Sunday. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 33 47 41 58 / 0 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 41 52 44 63 / 0 0 0 30
Galveston (GLS) 47 56 51 67 / 0 0 10 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ330-335-350-
355-370-375.

&&

[biggerbyte]

Cold is definitely coming. At this juncture we look to see a freeze down to the coast, then another bigger push of cold air after that. How long will it last, and will we get frozen precipitation.. That is to be determined on another day. If anything, Ice looks to be more of a conversation that snow this time around.

[jasons2k]

Someone seems a tad bit grumpy today. Maybe the sun needs to come out for awhile outside!

Haha. Yes. A little sun heals everything.

I am generally a patient person, that has come with age, but I am human and have limits like everyone else.

[Stratton20]

18z Euro, that Dam is gonna burst wide open

[Cpv17]

18z Euro, that Dam is gonna burst wide open

Damn, hope that pushes deep into Texas all the way to the coast!

[tireman4]

Euro

[sambucol]

18z Euro, that Dam is gonna burst wide open

Damn, hope that pushes deep into Texas all the way to the coast!

Yes!!!

[Cpv17]

Euro

The 18z Euro is actually a lil colder than the 12z.

[Ptarmigan]

Euro

The EURO suggests it could get quite cold.

[Ptarmigan]

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is trending downwards. A negative AO tends to favor cold blasts.

[Ptarmigan]

Another factor in play is the Tropical/Northern Hemisphere (TNH). A positive TNH favors cold blasts.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml

A positive TNH have ridging over Alaska and Gulf of America/Mexico and Atlantic. There is troughing over Eastern Canada. Ridging over Alaska is a negative East Pacific Oscillation (EPO). Negative EPO often produces cold blasts.

EPO
https://www.daculaweather.com/4_epo_index.php