February 2025

[tireman4]

Euro

[DoctorMu]

Big temperature bust today here. The GFS had us in the 80’s today a couple of days ago.And it’s actually 36 degrees right now. LOL

That pocket of cold air in OK and NW Texas is overperforming and sinking farther south than expected. The boundary is approaching Fort Worth to Brownwood.

Gravity and density FTW.

[snowman65]

Winter's over, folks.. Time to move on. Bring on spring. Time to dry up.

[DoctorMu]

What I see is the beginning of battleground season, where between DFW and NW Harris county will see a series of battles between cold and warm air across that state for the next few weeks. Sometimes warm wins, sometimes the cold. My concern is that the battle will turn severe by the end of February into March.

Be prepared.

[Stratton20]

snowman65 no its not, just stop

[tireman4]

Winter's over, folks.. Time to move on. Bring on spring. Time to dry up.

What snowman 65 might be doing is reverse psychology with Mother Nature.

[DoctorMu]

Winter's over, folks.. Time to move on. Bring on spring. Time to dry up.

What snowman 65 might be doing is reverse psychology with Mother Nature.

Yes, indeed.

[Stratton20]

GFS forecasted 80’s for north texas today, and some areas up there its in the 30’s, yikes GFS all that money pumped into upgrading the model and it still fails epically with shallow cold air masses

[tireman4]

Issued at 1134 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Inland terminals will see gradual improvement in visibility and
ceilings today while GLS remains in the fog and lower ceilings. An
afternoon bay breeze will bring another fetch of moisture into the
area which will allow for another round of fog and low ceilings
area-wide overnight into tomorrow morning as winds calm below 5
kts. Gradual improvement is expected once again for inland
locations late morning into the afternoon tomorrow as winds begin
to increase out of the south and southwest.

[snowman65]

Winter's over, folks.. Time to move on. Bring on spring. Time to dry up.

What snowman 65 might be doing is reverse psychology with Mother Nature.

Yes, indeed.

You see.. down here in S.E Tx and S.W. La we dont use groundhogs. We use bullfrogs. Boudreaux the Bullfrog did not see his shadow so that couyon say come on up, crawfish, its safe now.. aayyeeeee.....

[Pas_Bon]

What snowman 65 might be doing is reverse psychology with Mother Nature.

Yes, indeed.

You see.. down here in S.E Tx and S.W. La we dont use groundhogs. We use bullfrogs. Boudreaux the Bullfrog did not see his shadow so that couyon say come on up, crawfish, its safe now.. aayyeeeee.....

Agreed, but it IS spelled "couillon"

[snowman65]

must be different dictionaries, couyon!! lolol

[Pas_Bon]

must be different dictionaries, couyon!! lolol

[Cpv17]

Damn coonasses lol

[don]

Damn coonasses lol

As a Cajun/Creole I'm offended! LoL

[tireman4]

And back to the weather

[biggerbyte]

Well folks, the story for the day really hasn't changed much. Cold is coming, but when and where is up for grabs. One extra thought for this go round is the polar vortex starts sinking south, but then it retracts before spilling all the way down to areas well south of us.

Some of this is pure yada yada. We've heard this song and dance so many times before. Grain of salt.. etc. We need several more days to get anywhere near a forecast.

In the meantime, if any of this comes to pass, we could have several days of super cold temps. Top that off with the positioning of the jet stream.. How many storms will pass to our north before we get cold enough for snow.. That's up for grabs as well. Rumor has it that there will be a few, with at least one passing much further south.

[Stratton20]

Yeah I think Spring is gonna be on hold for a while lol, this had been discussed by several respectful mets, but their are decent indications that the PV could get disrupted caused by a SSWE beyond valentines day, and the 20th, by yikes if the euro is correct above, cold rest of February, and nearly all of march would be cold as the downstream impacts from this would be a long term thing

[DoctorMu]

Yes, indeed.

You see.. down here in S.E Tx and S.W. La we dont use groundhogs. We use bullfrogs. Boudreaux the Bullfrog did not see his shadow so that couyon say come on up, crawfish, its safe now.. aayyeeeee.....

Agreed, but it IS spelled "couillon"

I heard it's going to be a good crawfish season.

[tireman4]

378
FXUS64 KHGX 051152
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
552 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Very light streamer showers are making their way inland from the
Gulf this morning. Most of this is likely not reaching the ground,
or producing more of a mist. This light precipitation can be
attributed to isentropic ascent at the 295K level.

Expecting a very soupy morning as fog blankets the coastal areas
and patchy fog develops in the Brazos Valley. A Dense Fog Advisory
is in effect for portions of Southeast Texas through 10 AM this
morning, after which visibilities should improve.

Continued onshore flow and WAA will contribute to partly cloudy
skies today and Thursday, along with warm daytime temperatures.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s both today and Thursday.
Lows tonight and Thursday night will dip into the 60s. Foggy
conditions will return tonight and continue into Thursday morning.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

The muggy/foggy and unseasonably warm conditions will prevail
through at least Saturday as surface southerly flow persists.
Temperatures will be running around 20 degrees above normal with
highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the mid to upper
60s. Dense sea fog will continue to be widespread in the near shore
waters with the fog increasing in the Bays and coastal inland areas
during the overnight periods. A weak cold front will attempt to move
in from the north on Sunday, but trends in the guidance is having
this front stall/wash out further and further north where it may not
even make it south of the Piney Woods before it stalls. The
uncertainty in the possible FROPA leads to not only uncertainty in
the temperatures Sunday and Monday, but also means that sea fog may
end up lingering into the start of next week. Some light showers are
possible with the FROPA, but PoPs increase Monday into Tuesday as
moisture and PVA increases ahead of our next strong upper level
disturbance approaching from the west.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 548 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

LIFR conditions at IAH/HOU/GLS/CXO. All other sites at IFR. Dense
fog and low CIGs will contribute to the ongoing LIFR conditions
through around 15Z at IAH/HOU/CXO. GLS appears to remain in LIFR
through the majority of the period due to persistent low-level
clouds and dense fog. All other sites are projected to improve to
VFR by 18-21Z. A repeat of IFR/LIFR VSBYs and CIGs is expected
again tonight through Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Unfortunately, there has not been any substantial change in the
weather pattern with moist onshore flow moving over cool ocean/bay
waters leading to prolonged period of sea fog through the weekend.
Fog will be densest/most widespread during the evening through mid
morning hours each day with some visibility improvement during the
late morning through the afternoon, but patchy fog will even be
possible then. Some spots, especially along the nearshore waters,
may see little to no improvement in visibility during the daytime
hours. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through Noon for the
Bays and nearshore waters, but this Advisory may be continued
through the day in the nearshore waters.

Ocean water temperatures should be slowly rising through the
remainder of the week, which may help inhibit sea fog development. A
cold front may move through the coastal waters on Sunday helping to
clear out the fog, however there is uncertainty on how much dry air
will filter in behind the front so patchy sea fog may still linger
into Monday or Tuesday of next week.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 66 80 64 / 10 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 80 67 81 66 / 10 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 62 70 61 / 10 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ200-213-
214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ330-335-350-355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Fowler