February 2025

[sambucol]

Pow Ponder
https://www.facebook.com/share/1B2JfbxR ... tid=wwXIfr

[redneckweather]

Wow, upper 2b’s/low 30’s for low temps for mid February at the coldest!! Absolutely nothing abnormal for that. It will be a quick shot if that.

[Stratton20]

Wrong, thats not how this works, with the NAO going strongly negative, that cold air is going no where fast when it arrives, in addition with all the teleconnections going negative, models will likely be trending even colder as we get closer to valentines, big time to maybe extreme cold is most certainly in the deck of cards here

[Pas_Bon]

I say Stratton and redneck duke it out in the back parking lot of wxinfinity.com

[snowman65]

I say Stratton and redneck duke it out in the back parking lot of wxinfinity.com

S-R-T-A-T-O-T-N.. Go Stratton!!

[DoctorMu]

Looks like modified arctic air taking a shot at Texas Feb 11-15+ on some of the models and Ensembles. I think anyone south of Navasota will be disappointed through.

Way too far out. Could potentially be WAY colder than that. Or it might not be cold at all. Cards on the table for significant cold though.

It's Texas - anything is possible. Pow Ponder has bought it. This morning the models agree with me...

Having said that EPO and NAO go negative by mid Feb.

NAO NAO NAO NAO
NAO NAO NAO NAO
Hey, hey, hey Goodbye.

[biggerbyte]

Flip flop, here we go. Remember about a week and a half ago we were talking about not being done with the cold and snow in our area? That thought shifted dramatically to being mostly done with an early spring on the horizon. Now we are shifting back again.

If you are the type to dig deep and get the opinion of a number of favorite weather people, you will find the outcome to vary pretty significantly. One says the polar vortex will split, while another say no. Some say only the northeast, while others say much of the nation.

We have until around valentines day around here to lock it down. Sufficed to say, the general consensus is that the "early spring " needs to be put in hold until further notice.

You all know how it is around here. We are several days out, and things can look different every day. Be careful of hype and wish casting being thrown around in the forums. It is way too early.

[jasons2k]

Furthermore, some folks need to learn a little humility. Telling someone they are “wrong” based on an amateur interpretation of some models over 10 days away is just rude. And certainly not credible.

I personally hope the blowtorch cranks up and serves up a few pieces of humble pie.

[kyzsl51]

Furthermore, some folks need to learn a little humility. Telling someone they are “wrong” based on an amateur interpretation of some models over 10 days away is just rude. And certainly not credible.

I personally hope the blowtorch cranks up and serves up a few pieces of humble pie.

Maybe i missed it but im not sure who called anyone wrong....there definitely are veteran Mets out there that are forecasting another big intrusion of arctic air. Could they be wrong? Absolutely

[tireman4]

Today

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Today sucks. Next 5 days suck. Hot and humid.

Ready for 40s and 60s again on the 9th.

[sambucol]

Today sucks. Next 5 days suck. Hot and humid.

Ready for 40s and 60s again on the 9th.

What’s your opinion about the arctic air the models are showing? Coming all the way through Texas?

[redneckweather]

Got awful quiet in here.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Today sucks. Next 5 days suck. Hot and humid.

Ready for 40s and 60s again on the 9th.

What’s your opinion about the attic air the models are showing? Coming all the way through Texas?

It’s really too early to say. Usually these fronts over perform this time of year and clear the coast, but not all models are showing that at the moment. I’d expect that they will in due time, but the pop to it will depend on our normal factors which still aren’t settled yet.

[Ptarmigan]

I will give a few days. We should have some idea of how cold it will get.

[Stratton20]

I know we give Bastardi alot of crap, but hes good at pattern recognition, and in his opinion thinks this setup looks similar to december 1983 or so, its got that classic cold air outbreak look, could be that models arent seeing that yet, but in a few days that could be a different story

[DoctorMu]

There will be cold air. The question is will it modify over Texas? KC, Omaha, Minneapolis are going to get damn cold in a week.

I'm going to stick to Navasota to NW Harris Co. as the freeze line.

[tireman4]

46
FXUS64 KHGX 041148
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 230 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Warm and humid weather will persist through the short-term period
as surface high pressure centered to the east of the area
continues to put Southeast Texas in the position of persistent
onshore flow. Highs for today and Wednesday will continue to reach
into the upper 70s to low 80s inland and into the low 70s along
the coast. WAA in the 850mb level and onshore flow will result in
cloudy skies today and Wednesday. This will trap heat at the
surface during the nighttime hours, leading to mild and muggy
nights as temperatures dip into the 60s.

Fog has been an issue the last couple of nights; however, cloud
cover seems to be limiting the amount of dense fog across the
area at the present moment. Surface observations show the barrier
island sites (GLS/PSX) at 1/4 mi visibility this morning.
Elsewhere, visibilities are 6-10 miles. Dew point depressions
have a little more spread than what has been observed the last
couple of nights. Probabilities are around 50% for visibilities of
1 miles or less for the Coastal Plains and Houston Metro for this
morning and Wednesday morning, so will continue to monitor for the
"sunrise surprise" fog. In any case, with fog (especially dense
fog) leave extra space between vehicles and use low-beam
headlights.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

There will not be much change in the weather pattern through the
weekend with zonal flow aloft and moist/warm onshore flow expected
at the surface. This means the unseasonable warm weather and coastal
fog will be continuing through the remainder of the week. Afternoon
high temperatures will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s for most of
the region through at least Saturday, which is 15-25 degrees above
normal, and the overnight low temperatures will be in the mid to
upper 60s for most of the area, which is again about 20-25 degrees
above normal. Sea fog over the Bays and Gulf waters is expected to
develop each night and persist into the mid-morning hours, but some
of this fog will likely bleed over into the inland coastal regions
each night.

The forecast becomes a tad more interesting by the end of the
weekend into early next week. A cold front will be approaching the
region from the north late Saturday night/early Sunday morning that
is expected to move through the area through the day on Sunday
bringing some isolated showers and cooler temperatures. However, this
front is looking fairly shallow, and may stall near or just off the
coast before retreating northwards on Monday. PWATs Saturday night
ahead of the front will be around 1.3", and PWATs after FROPA will
still be around 1" so there really isn`t much of a moisture
difference after the front moves through continuing the coastal fog
threat into Monday. There will be cooler temperatures expected
Sunday into Monday thanks to the FROPA with high temperatures on
Sunday in the mid to upper 70s (though this will be determined by
the exact timing of the FROPA), and high temperatures on Monday in
the mid to upper 60s.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 539 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

LIFR conditions ongoing at GLS/LBX due to VSBYs and CIGs. All
other sites at MVFR this morning. Fog has been for the most part
contained to the coastal sites. Expect improvement to VFR by the
afternoon hours (18-21Z). CIGs and VSBYs lower to MVFR/IFR levels
near the end of the period. Winds will remain light out of the
south to southeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Moist onshore flow over cool ocean/bay waters will persist through
the remainder of the week, so mariners should be prepared for a
prolonged period of sea fog across the SE Texas coast. Fog will be
densest/most widespread during the evening through mid morning hours
each day with some visibility improvement during the late morning
through the afternoon, but patchy fog will even be possible then.
Ocean water temperatures should be slowly rising through the
remainder of the week, which may help inhibit sea fog development. A
cold front may move through the coastal waters on Sunday helping to
clear out the fog, however there is uncertainty on how much dry air
will filter in behind the front so patchy sea fog may still linger
into Monday or Tuesday of next week.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 66 81 65 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 80 65 80 66 / 10 10 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 70 60 67 61 / 0 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ214-313-
335>338-436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335-
350-355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Fowler

[jasons2k]

I know we give Bastardi alot of crap, but hes good at pattern recognition, and in his opinion thinks this setup looks similar to december 1983 or so, its got that classic cold air outbreak look, could be that models arent seeing that yet, but in a few days that could be a different story

He says that at least once every single year. Double bingo for 1899.

[don]

Big temperature bust today here. The GFS had us in the 80’s today a couple of days ago.And it’s actually 36 degrees right now. LOL