November Weather Discussion. Rollercoaster Pattern.

[srainhoutx]

Oh my...

[snowman65]

Can anyone tell me what the weather pattern may be like during the week of Thanksgiving in the Central/EasternTennessee area? Will be ther with in laws for the week......Thanks!

[srainhoutx]

Can anyone tell me what the weather pattern may be like during the week of Thanksgiving in the Central/EasternTennessee area? Will be ther with in laws for the week......Thanks!

If the GFS is correct at this range, it looks very chilly with high temps in the 20's and 30's on Wednesday before Thanksgiving and lows in the teens for the Nashville area as an example.

[snowman65]

Thanks!. That would be AWESOME for me........but for my wife, not so much......hehehehe.......

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS continues to advertise a big pattern change ahead. Interesting to see a couple of 1050mb Arctic High Pressure centers building in Northern Canada as well in GFS world.

[srainhoutx]

Another point of interest in the GFS runs, is the consistent modeling of an area of low pressure/trough in S TX starting this weekend. Our rain chances look to increase starting Sunday and continue throughout a lot of next week as the low pressure slowly moves up the coast and on to the E. Although daytime temps will be held down (50's-60's) during this time frame, but not nearly as cold as what models are suggesting beginning around the 16th or so.

[tireman4]

Another point of interest in the GFS runs, is the consistent modeling of an area of low pressure/trough in S TX starting this weekend. Our rain chances look to increase starting Sunday and continue throughout a lot of next week as the low pressure slowly moves up the coast and on to the E. Although daytime temps will be held down (50's-60's) during this time frame, but not nearly as cold as what models are suggesting beginning around the 16th or so.

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Very very interesting......

[srainhoutx]

The Canadian is also suggesting a coastal low next Monday...

[svrwx0503]

Another point of interest in the GFS runs, is the consistent modeling of an area of low pressure/trough in S TX starting this weekend. Our rain chances look to increase starting Sunday and continue throughout a lot of next week as the low pressure slowly moves up the coast and on to the E. Although daytime temps will be held down (50's-60's) during this time frame, but not nearly as cold as what models are suggesting beginning around the 16th or so.

12z GFS showing the development of an inverted trough/low in south Texas Sunday, moving it off to the northeast through Monday. Should this verify, we could see some decent rains across portions of southeast Texas. Right now I would lean towards southern and eastern sections of the region possibly having the highest rain chances late Sunday through early Tuesday. Might see tides come up on Monday too associated with stronger easterly winds. NWS has already started nudging pops up during the Sunday-Tuesday time period.

[srainhoutx]

12Z Euro is coming onboard with the pattern change. This model as well suggests a 1050mb Arctic High Pressure in AK building S...

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS Ensembles...looking mighty chilly...

[srainhoutx]

There seems to be a lot of interest in the pattern change. I suspect the 'night crew' will get active in the days ahead...

[Ptarmigan]

Looks to be an interesting November.

[helloitsb]

Hi I'm new to this forum and would like to say it is helpful and it is great! I found some weather models in the links thread but I'm having some trouble with reading one, I think I have all of them besides this one, can anybody help me decipher it? Still new to this, Thanks!

[helloitsb]

Sorry for double post.

[Mr. T]

Looks like a big arctic outbreak is possible for the Pac NW and Northern Plains towards the latter half of this month. It will be interesting to see how far south the cold air may go...

Meanwhile, we've got some messy days ahead for us. High bust potential for temperatures this weekend and early next week. We've got a shallow cold front situation, and we all know how awful models handle those situations...

[srainhoutx]

Time to start looking at our rainfall chances beginning Sunday as the S TX trough/low pressure begins to affect our area bringing some needed rainfall...

[srainhoutx]

Hi I'm new to this forum and would like to say it is helpful and it is great! I found some weather models in the links thread but I'm having some trouble with reading one, I think I have all of them besides this one, can anybody help me decipher it? Still new to this, Thanks!

That is the 850mb temperature and height chart. One thing that may help you is a chart of the mb levels provided by wxman57 some time ago...hope it helps and welcome to the Weather Forum...

[tireman4]

Thanks so much for sharing. That helps.....

[srainhoutx]

The over night GFS and Euro continue to suggest a strong 1050 mb Arctic High Pressure diving S along the lee side of the Rockies in the longer range. Trends are suggesting a strong Arctic Front in the 17th-20th time frame just before Thanksgiving.