January 2025

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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I think I said it 2 days ago, just chill out everyone, the storm is still coming. Things are actually looking good for the Houston area.

The HRRR is the most overhyped model ever….it must be the name. Good marketing though.
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snowman65
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what is this GRAF model?
Pas_Bon
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snowman65 wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 2:33 pm what is this GRAF model?
IBM AI-infused mesoscale model.
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snowman65
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Pas_Bon wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 2:35 pm
snowman65 wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 2:33 pm what is this GRAF model?
IBM AI-infused mesoscale model.
does it have any merit?
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tireman4
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snowman65 wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 2:37 pm
Pas_Bon wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 2:35 pm
snowman65 wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 2:33 pm what is this GRAF model?
IBM AI-infused mesoscale model.
does it have any merit?

Right now it has done well
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tireman4
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tireman4 wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 2:39 pm
snowman65 wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 2:37 pm
Pas_Bon wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 2:35 pm

IBM AI-infused mesoscale model.
does it have any merit?

Right now it has done well
Scroll back to Pete Cavlin's comments. The model has done well so far.
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jasons2k
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It's getting into that window when sounding data and realtime obs matters more than any of the models.
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Rip76
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Clouds are starting to thicken up, up here in the Woodlands.
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snowman65
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tireman4 wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 2:41 pm
tireman4 wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 2:39 pm
snowman65 wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 2:37 pm

does it have any merit?

Right now it has done well
Scroll back to Pete Cavlin's comments. The model has done well so far.
thanks. I'll take that...
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tireman4
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From Jeff on Facebook at 3 pm

Winter storm likely tonight into tomorrow
midday

Accumulations of snow likely over the area.

Graphics below show the probability of greater than 4 inches and greater than 6 inches of snow over the area

Last graphic is showing the current forecast snowfall. Could see some locally higher totals spylth of I10 where the most sustained banding will be found
Precipitation will begin after 900pm this evening and end around midday Tuesday with the heavies between 300am and 1000am Tuesday


Travel will be nearly impossible on Tuesday
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TexasBreeze
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Rip76 wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 2:53 pm Clouds are starting to thicken up, up here in the Woodlands.
Yes they are. They are lowering and darkening fairly quick...
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 2:04 pmNo one is asking you to leave, just don’t be a whiny negative poster when one model isn’t showing what we or you want.
Isn't the nature of snowfall dictated by the temps? This snow might be more "wet" (and, easier to make snowmen, etc) due to the milder temps in contrast to Feb 2021 (which was more powder).
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MontgomeryCoWx
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user:null wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 3:15 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 2:04 pmNo one is asking you to leave, just don’t be a whiny negative poster when one model isn’t showing what we or you want.
Isn't the nature of snowfall dictated by the temps? This snow might be more "wet" (and, easier to make snowmen, etc) due to the milder temps in contrast to Feb 2021 (which was more powder).
Here? Yes.

Up north, no. North meaning north of our viewing area.
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rselby0654
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What about the Willis area?
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tireman4
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rselby0654 wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 3:26 pm What about the Willis area?
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MontgomeryCoWx
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I was outside and I’ve started to get a tad bit of drizzle and small grainy flakes
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Pas_Bon
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 3:49 pm I was outside and I’ve started to get a tad bit of drizzle and small grainy flakes

I saw a few here in League City a few mins ago
BigNorthSide
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Looks snowy for sure! Fingers crossed 🤞
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tireman4
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HGX Radar
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snowman65
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tireman4 wrote: Mon Jan 20, 2025 4:21 pmHGX Radar
already? wow
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