January 2025

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2025 11:53 am That's only 2-3 degrees difference. I don't see temp being the limiting factor today.
1-2 degrees made all the difference in DFW last storm.
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Stratton20
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Cromangum that makes a significant difference down here with precipitation types
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tireman4
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Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2025 11:53 am That's only 2-3 degrees difference. I don't see temp being the limiting factor today.

Makes a huge difference
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Cromagnum
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It's goint to be in the lower 20s when the moisture gets here. The issue is going to be how much moisture and where.
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Brazoriatx979
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YUGGGGGGGGGGEEEEE difference
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jasons2k
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Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2025 12:04 pm It's goint to be in the lower 20s when the moisture gets here. The issue is going to be how much moisture and where.
It’s not that simple. You should be more concerned with the 700mb layer up there.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2025 12:06 pm
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2025 12:04 pm It's goint to be in the lower 20s when the moisture gets here. The issue is going to be how much moisture and where.
It’s not that simple. You should be more concerned with the 700mb layer up there.
Correct answer!
Team #NeverSummer
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Stratton20
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Since temperatures are a good 3-4 degrees colder than forecast, i know that can effect precipitation type, but what kind of effect does this have at the 700 mb level?
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MontgomeryCoWx
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FV3 agrees

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_44.png
Team #NeverSummer
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Brazoriatx979
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Jim Cantore is in Houston 8-)
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DoctorMu
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Brazoriatx979 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2025 12:25 pm Jim Cantore is in Houston 8-)
Thundersnow!
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Brazoriatx979
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damn were at 40 degress already lol
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davidiowx
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DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2025 12:26 pm
Brazoriatx979 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2025 12:25 pm Jim Cantore is in Houston 8-)
Thundersnow!
I was going to say the same exact thing LOL
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DoctorMu
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I'm pulling for the GEM to deliver again (like 2021).
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snowman65
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Brazoriatx979 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2025 12:26 pm damn were at 40 degress already lol
Im already at 32
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DoctorMu
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Brazoriatx979 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2025 12:26 pm damn were at 40 degress already lol
Still 32°F up in College Station.
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Goomba
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DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Jan 20, 2025 12:28 pm I'm pulling for the GEM to deliver again (like 2021).
I vote for that.
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DoctorMu
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Our NWS forecast hasn't changed much in days. 1.5-2.5+ inches of snow. Mix is out of the forecast.
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AtascocitaWX
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So is this a global model? Have not seen much talk on it.
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tireman4
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Pete Cavlin


While other models have wavered significantly in the last 24 hours...moving the heaviest snow axis south and then back north again, the IBM GRAF has remained remarkably consistent, showing little to no change in the last 36 hours. Incredible test for this model
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