Hurricane Tomas Accelerating NNE From the Bahamas
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srainhoutx
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Tomas appears to have developed a 'true center', this evening. I am concerned for all of Hispaniola tonight.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
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Some humor from the NHC tonight...
000
WTNT41 KNHC 040249
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010
DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSIONS
INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF TOMAS IS STILL NOT QUITE
ALIGNED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. THEY HAVE MOVED CLOSER TOGETHER
DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...AND A 2219 UTC SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS
SHOWS CONSIDERABLY MORE BANDING THAN THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD DURING THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 40 KT...WHICH IS
NEAR THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR MAXIMA REPORTED BY NOAA.
THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OF TOMAS
WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND WARM WATERS. IN FACT...ALL OF
THE RELIABLE MODELS THAT DO NOT MOVE TOMAS OVER A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF HAITI MAKE THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE WITHIN 36-48 HOURS.
THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX ALSO SHOWS A 62 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH THIS
MODEL WAS TOO HIGH YESTERDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BURNED US BEFORE BY
DOING THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THE IMPROVED
MICROWAVE PRESENTATION...I AM INCLINED TO RAISE THE FORECAST A
LITTLE BIT TO HURRICANE STATUS. THE NEW FORECAST IS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW A COMPOSITE OF THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM MODELS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A COLD FRONT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES.
THE CURRENT MOTION REMAINS 330/5...THOUGH THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN
THAN NORMAL WITH THE NHC INITIAL POSITION ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE
OF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A WEAK RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
TOMAS IS STEERING THE STORM FOR NOW...BUT A RATHER STRONG DEEP
LAYER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TOMORROW...AND THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
BY EARLY FRIDAY. TOMAS SHOULD BE ACCELERATING AS IT PASSES NEAR
HAITI AS THE MID-LATITUDE LOW APPROACHES. ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST WITH THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS STILL
FOCUSED ON A TRACK TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. AT DAYS 4 AND
5...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE MODELS THAT THE GULF OF
MEXICO LOW WILL LEAVE TOMAS BEHIND TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AT THAT TIME.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...
FLOODING...AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0300Z 15.4N 75.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 16.1N 75.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 17.4N 75.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 19.1N 74.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 21.0N 72.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 24.0N 70.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 25.0N 68.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 25.0N 66.5W 45 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT41 KNHC 040249
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010
DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSIONS
INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF TOMAS IS STILL NOT QUITE
ALIGNED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. THEY HAVE MOVED CLOSER TOGETHER
DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...AND A 2219 UTC SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS
SHOWS CONSIDERABLY MORE BANDING THAN THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD DURING THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 40 KT...WHICH IS
NEAR THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR MAXIMA REPORTED BY NOAA.
THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OF TOMAS
WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND WARM WATERS. IN FACT...ALL OF
THE RELIABLE MODELS THAT DO NOT MOVE TOMAS OVER A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF HAITI MAKE THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE WITHIN 36-48 HOURS.
THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX ALSO SHOWS A 62 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH THIS
MODEL WAS TOO HIGH YESTERDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BURNED US BEFORE BY
DOING THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THE IMPROVED
MICROWAVE PRESENTATION...I AM INCLINED TO RAISE THE FORECAST A
LITTLE BIT TO HURRICANE STATUS. THE NEW FORECAST IS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW A COMPOSITE OF THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM MODELS.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A COLD FRONT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES.
THE CURRENT MOTION REMAINS 330/5...THOUGH THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN
THAN NORMAL WITH THE NHC INITIAL POSITION ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE
OF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A WEAK RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
TOMAS IS STEERING THE STORM FOR NOW...BUT A RATHER STRONG DEEP
LAYER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TOMORROW...AND THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
BY EARLY FRIDAY. TOMAS SHOULD BE ACCELERATING AS IT PASSES NEAR
HAITI AS THE MID-LATITUDE LOW APPROACHES. ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST WITH THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS STILL
FOCUSED ON A TRACK TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. AT DAYS 4 AND
5...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE MODELS THAT THE GULF OF
MEXICO LOW WILL LEAVE TOMAS BEHIND TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AT THAT TIME.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...
FLOODING...AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0300Z 15.4N 75.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 16.1N 75.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 17.4N 75.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 19.1N 74.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 21.0N 72.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 24.0N 70.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 25.0N 68.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 25.0N 66.5W 45 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Masters' blog http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1683
WunderMap http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... ds=0&tfk=0
I'm hoping it moves a bit further west, maybe Guantanamo - they would be better-prepared & able to withstand the wind & rain
NHC Tomas: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml#TOMAS
WunderMap http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... ds=0&tfk=0
I'm hoping it moves a bit further west, maybe Guantanamo - they would be better-prepared & able to withstand the wind & rain
NHC Tomas: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml#TOMAS
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 041448
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010
...CENTER OF TOMAS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND
HAITI...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER WILL PASS NEAR JAMAICA OR HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER
EXTREME EASTERN CUBA FRIDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND
TOMAS COULD BE NEAR OR AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE CENTER PASSES
EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY..
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT31 KNHC 041448
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010
...CENTER OF TOMAS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND
HAITI...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER WILL PASS NEAR JAMAICA OR HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER
EXTREME EASTERN CUBA FRIDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND
TOMAS COULD BE NEAR OR AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE CENTER PASSES
EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY..
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Center of Tomas is totally exposed now...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010
THIS AFTERNOON...TOMAS CONTINUES AS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WITH
MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED EAST OF A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL.
DESPITE APPEARANCES THAT THE SWIRL IS THE CIRCULATION CENTER...THE
AIR FORCE C-130 OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
ROTATING AROUND A BROADER MEAN CENTER. THE RECONNAISSANCE ALSO
OBSERVED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 995 MB AND EQUIVALENT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE OF ABOUT 45 KT...THOUGH THIS WIND VALUE COULD BE SLIGHTLY
GENEROUS.
THE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT AS IT IS PRIMARILY
BEING STEERED TO THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD INDUCE RECURVATURE OF TOMAS TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION OF ITS FORWARD SPEED DURING THE 36
HR OR SO. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
POINT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 36 HR IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AT 48 HR AND
BEYOND...HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF TOMAS IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.
ONE GROUP OF MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...NOGAPS...HWRF...AND GFDL...CONTINUE TO SPEED THE CYCLONE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND HAVE IT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A STRONG COLD FRONT. ANOTHER SCENARIO...SHARED BY THE
ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS...IS THAT THE CYCLONE WOULD BECOME SHEARED
AND SHALLOW...NOT PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH AND FRONT...AND MEANDER
EASTWARD FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THE CONSENSUS TECHNIQUES...BY
DESIGN...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH IS NOT VERY LIKELY TO BE
CORRECT. IN A SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE COMPROMISE...THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS
SOMEWHAT EQUATORWARD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
TOMAS HAS ABOUT A DAY OR TWO TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...VERY WARM
WATERS...AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. BEYOND TWO DAYS...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD EXPERIENCE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY
COOLER WATERS. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS QUITE CLOSE TO A
CONSENSUS OF DECAY-SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS AND NEARLY THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE
TRACK DOES TAKE THE CYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER EITHER EASTERN CUBA OR
HISPANIOLA FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS...THE CYCLONE WOULD BE WEAKER
THAN INDICATED HERE.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL...
WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES
OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 16.6N 76.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 17.8N 75.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 20.1N 74.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 72.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 24.8N 71.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 27.5N 69.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 28.5N 66.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 29.0N 64.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010
THIS AFTERNOON...TOMAS CONTINUES AS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WITH
MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED EAST OF A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL.
DESPITE APPEARANCES THAT THE SWIRL IS THE CIRCULATION CENTER...THE
AIR FORCE C-130 OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN
ROTATING AROUND A BROADER MEAN CENTER. THE RECONNAISSANCE ALSO
OBSERVED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 995 MB AND EQUIVALENT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE OF ABOUT 45 KT...THOUGH THIS WIND VALUE COULD BE SLIGHTLY
GENEROUS.
THE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT AS IT IS PRIMARILY
BEING STEERED TO THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD INDUCE RECURVATURE OF TOMAS TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION OF ITS FORWARD SPEED DURING THE 36
HR OR SO. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
POINT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 36 HR IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AT 48 HR AND
BEYOND...HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF TOMAS IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.
ONE GROUP OF MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...NOGAPS...HWRF...AND GFDL...CONTINUE TO SPEED THE CYCLONE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND HAVE IT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A STRONG COLD FRONT. ANOTHER SCENARIO...SHARED BY THE
ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS...IS THAT THE CYCLONE WOULD BECOME SHEARED
AND SHALLOW...NOT PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH AND FRONT...AND MEANDER
EASTWARD FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THE CONSENSUS TECHNIQUES...BY
DESIGN...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH IS NOT VERY LIKELY TO BE
CORRECT. IN A SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE COMPROMISE...THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS
SOMEWHAT EQUATORWARD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
TOMAS HAS ABOUT A DAY OR TWO TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...VERY WARM
WATERS...AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. BEYOND TWO DAYS...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD EXPERIENCE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY
COOLER WATERS. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS QUITE CLOSE TO A
CONSENSUS OF DECAY-SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS AND NEARLY THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE
TRACK DOES TAKE THE CYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER EITHER EASTERN CUBA OR
HISPANIOLA FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS...THE CYCLONE WOULD BE WEAKER
THAN INDICATED HERE.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL...
WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES
OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 16.6N 76.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 17.8N 75.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 20.1N 74.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 72.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 24.8N 71.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 27.5N 69.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 28.5N 66.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 29.0N 64.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 042331
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010
...TOMAS SHOWING SIGNS OF GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN JAMAICA AND HAITI...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 75.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 020 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
WTNT31 KNHC 042331
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010
...TOMAS SHOWING SIGNS OF GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN JAMAICA AND HAITI...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 75.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 020 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 051149
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
...TOMAS A LITTLE STRONGER...CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 74.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
WTNT31 KNHC 051149
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
...TOMAS A LITTLE STRONGER...CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 74.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... s=0&tfk=0#
watch the cold tops melt just as they approach the Windward Passage & Port-au-Prince - that's awesome
watch the cold tops melt just as they approach the Windward Passage & Port-au-Prince - that's awesome
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srainhoutx
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ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
...TOMAS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 72.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM WNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST FROM
THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
...TOMAS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 72.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM WNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST FROM
THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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000
WTNT31 KNHC 061444
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT SAT NOV 06 2010
...TOMAS MOVING INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC...ALL COASTAL WARNINGS
DISCONTINUED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 70.6W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.
WTNT31 KNHC 061444
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT SAT NOV 06 2010
...TOMAS MOVING INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC...ALL COASTAL WARNINGS
DISCONTINUED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 70.6W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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000
WTNT61 KNHC 062308
TCUAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
715 PM AST SAT NOV 06 2010
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TOMAS HAS REGAINED
HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SHORTLY BEFORE 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
TOMAS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...MAKING TOMAS A
HURRICANE AGAIN. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE
ISSUED BY 800 PM AST...0000 UTC.
SUMMARY OF 715 PM AST...2315 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 69.8W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...25 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.11 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN
WTNT61 KNHC 062308
TCUAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
715 PM AST SAT NOV 06 2010
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TOMAS HAS REGAINED
HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SHORTLY BEFORE 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
TOMAS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...MAKING TOMAS A
HURRICANE AGAIN. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE
ISSUED BY 800 PM AST...0000 UTC.
SUMMARY OF 715 PM AST...2315 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 69.8W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...25 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.11 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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