Dense air always wins. We *might* be a little dry up in CLL. NOAA still has us at 80%, though.user:null wrote: ↑Sun Jan 19, 2025 6:59 pmIndeed. But the whole height/thickness field is also trending southward. That is consistent with the NAM suppression trend. So, while the event might be all snow for Houston ... totals are also lowering as well.
Look at that arctic air "winning out," and taking the height field away with it.
January 2025
Don't stop believin'
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txsnowmaker
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How’s the HRRR coming in?
Just now getting to go time, give it 10 more minutes.
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txsnowmaker
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Travis Herzog of ABC 13 on his Facebook page a little less than an hour ago:
“Our base case is now 3-6" of snow for Houston. Do you wanna build a snowman?
”
“Our base case is now 3-6" of snow for Houston. Do you wanna build a snowman?
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redneckweather
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RGEM seems to always overdue amounts. I’m interested in the HRRR at this point and nothing else.
HRRR with a noticeable southward shift as well. Still running, but pushing the higher totals down to the coast.
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Stratton20
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Ok these southern trends can stop now
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Brazoriatx979
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South trend continues
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Wow that seems like a pretty significant shift. That puts my area in northern Harris county at maybe an inch or two.
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Stratton20
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I swear to god if that snow keeps trending south…
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Brazoriatx979
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Like I said..the coastal counties may be the big winners here if this continues
Dont let panic set in.
We're still a little over 24 hours out from this thing getting started so things will no doubt still swing a little here and there. However, at the same time you can't ignore the trends all the models have taken since this afternoon with essentially all of them noticeably shifting towards the south. In a setup like this, 20 miles could be the difference between a light dusting and 6 inches of the good stuff. Folks in Metro Houston and points north are running out of wiggle room. Let's hope they overcorrected and ease back north a little bit overnight and into the morning. Always has been a tricky setup.
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redneckweather
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Just as I figured. The HRRR is the one to watch and it suppresses all the snow WAY south to coastal counties and wouldn’t be surprised on the next run that it sends it all offshore. Huge disappointment in the models giving everyone hope on a bunch of snow. Historic? Not even close. Can’t make this crap up.
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Brazoriatx979
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Yall gotta chill lol this stuff will drive you nuts. It's going to happen. Just take a step back and take a shot
I have a very difficult time remembering a time when the winter weather event unfolded exactly how the models said it would anyways. It's always something unexpected happening it seems like