January 2025

[DoctorMu]

GFS

Gimme.

[jasons2k]

That sounding is a bit ESE of here, so if the GFS verified I would be safely in the snow zone (as would most of metro Houston). It’s the perfect snow sounding…and yes I am expecting some rumbles on thunder. Nighttime lighting with thundersnow looks iffy with the timing, but I’m holding out hope I see at least a good flash and hear that incredible eerie rumble you hear through the snow. The mesoscales will tell the tale on the placement of warm tongue though.

[tireman4]

You cannot get a better sounding off of that 18Z GFS. Man oh man. I can try and explain it. When you see the lines almost straight together at the lowest parts of the atmosphere, that is almost a perfect set up for snow. There is no melting whatsoever from the midlevels down.

The column is saturated and waiting.

Yes. Everything below the dendritic growth zone (DGZ; yellow line on sounding for reference) is very saturated which means that we will likely see very big flakes when it snows! Or should I say you will all see it because I am here in Starkville hoping for something at all.

It is all systems go. I have not seen a set up like this in awhile. Also, thank you Captain. I appreciate you explaining the Skew-T data. I am still learning.

[snowman65]

Golden Triangle still in good shape?

[captainbarbossa19]

The column is saturated and waiting.

Yes. Everything below the dendritic growth zone (DGZ; yellow line on sounding for reference) is very saturated which means that we will likely see very big flakes when it snows! Or should I say you will all see it because I am here in Starkville hoping for something at all.

It is all systems go. I have not seen a set up like this in awhile. Also, thank you Captain. I appreciate you explaining the Skew-T data. I am still learning.

No problem! I am fairly well-versed with skew-t's but if you are interested in learning more, there is actually a guy on YouTube who delves deep into subject. He goes into severe weather parameters, winter weather, etc. I can send you a link to his channel as a pm if you're interested.

On another note, I would say that there is a good chance of seeing thundersleet/thundersnow looking at vorticity advection expected to take place on Tuesday through models. I am really expecting this to be a historic event now unless something drastically changes, but models currently are trending towards more snow towards the coast and not less which is a good sign.

[Brazoriatx979]

Yes. Everything below the dendritic growth zone (DGZ; yellow line on sounding for reference) is very saturated which means that we will likely see very big flakes when it snows! Or should I say you will all see it because I am here in Starkville hoping for something at all.

It is all systems go. I have not seen a set up like this in awhile. Also, thank you Captain. I appreciate you explaining the Skew-T data. I am still learning.

No problem! I am fairly well-versed with skew-t's but if you are interested in learning more, there is actually a guy on YouTube who delves deep into subject. He goes into severe weather parameters, winter weather, etc. I can send you a link to his channel as a pm if you're interested.

On another note, I would say that there is a good chance of seeing thundersleet/thundersnow looking at vorticity advection expected to take place on Tuesday through models. I am really expecting this to be a historic event now unless something drastically changes, but models currently are trending towards more snow towards the coast and not less which is a good sign.

The Texas coast right? Figured you might be talking about Louisiana

[tireman4]

Yes. Everything below the dendritic growth zone (DGZ; yellow line on sounding for reference) is very saturated which means that we will likely see very big flakes when it snows! Or should I say you will all see it because I am here in Starkville hoping for something at all.

It is all systems go. I have not seen a set up like this in awhile. Also, thank you Captain. I appreciate you explaining the Skew-T data. I am still learning.

No problem! I am fairly well-versed with skew-t's but if you are interested in learning more, there is actually a guy on YouTube who delves deep into subject. He goes into severe weather parameters, winter weather, etc. I can send you a link to his channel as a pm if you're interested.

On another note, I would say that there is a good chance of seeing thundersleet/thundersnow looking at vorticity advection expected to take place on Tuesday through models. I am really expecting this to be a historic event now unless something drastically changes, but models currently are trending towards more snow towards the coast and not less which is a good sign.

Thank you so much for the heads up. That is about 2 years ahead of where I am now. I am going way slow in the progress in finishing. I have life, teaching, writing ( journal articles) and running ( both a library and really running) in my view. I figure one class a semester and I will slowly finish by the time I am 70. LOL

[Cromagnum]

I like the GFS solution better than the others even though it's probably completely wrong.

[captainbarbossa19]

It is all systems go. I have not seen a set up like this in awhile. Also, thank you Captain. I appreciate you explaining the Skew-T data. I am still learning.

No problem! I am fairly well-versed with skew-t's but if you are interested in learning more, there is actually a guy on YouTube who delves deep into subject. He goes into severe weather parameters, winter weather, etc. I can send you a link to his channel as a pm if you're interested.

On another note, I would say that there is a good chance of seeing thundersleet/thundersnow looking at vorticity advection expected to take place on Tuesday through models. I am really expecting this to be a historic event now unless something drastically changes, but models currently are trending towards more snow towards the coast and not less which is a good sign.

The Texas coast right? Figured you might be talking about Louisiana

Yes, for both coasts. Most models are in pretty good agreement now about where the heaviest precip will take place. They also have a pretty good idea about where the best lift will be (thundersleet/thundersnow). We will certainly have a better idea once short-term models come into range which will begin tomorrow. I don't expect a lot of major shifts though based on the synoptic setup.

[DoctorMu]

This is the latest sounding data from the 18z GFS for Tuesday morning at 9. This is the perfect sounding for snow lovers. No melting layer present at all. Get ready folks.

curious to the % of people in here that can read that chart lol. I cant lol

So essentially, you want the red line to not cross the dark blue line to its right. The dark blue line is drawn diagonally and is the freezing line. Anything to the right of the dark blue line is considered the melting layer. In the sounding, the red line stays entirely to the left which is exactly what you want to see for snow!

Cool physics fact. The freezing point for water increases in temperature with increasing altitude (and reduced density of the air). That's why the (blue) line is slanted. Water also boils at a lower temperature at altitude. In theory with enough altitude water goes from a solid state to gaseous (sublimation) without ever being a liquid.

[Stratton20]

18z Euro is really focusing the core of the heaviest snow along i-10 from katy to houston to points NE of the city, wide swath of 8-10 inches with over a foot in a spot

[Brazoriatx979]

It's also moving the snow line south like the gfs

[txsnowmaker]

This is really exciting. Houston missed out when Victoria got the jackpot some years back. We haven’t gotten more than a couple inches in the city since 1960. This would be insane!

[christinac2016]

Does this mean points north of i10 won’t get as much?

[Stormlover2020]

No north i10 good

[sean]

Does this mean points north of i10 won’t get as much?

According to the map posted above, north of I-10 still getting a lot

[txsnowmaker]

KHOU news just ran their weather segment. Showed GRAF model depicting 1/2 inch of snow in Houston. LOL. They said they “split the difference” with the GFS and Euro models, and have their official forecast showing 1-2 inches below I-10 and 2-4 inches above I-10 for Harris County. Think they’re going to be surprised with what transpires…

[Tx2005]

Any updates since this morning in regards to what metro Houston sees (ice vs snow) this week?

Also, is it still expected that we should see roads clear up some Wednesday?

[Cpv17]

KHOU news just ran their weather segment. Showed GRAF model depicting 1/2 inch of snow in Houston. LOL. They said they “split the difference” with the GFS and Euro models, and have their official forecast showing 1-2 inches below I-10 and 2-4 inches above I-10 for Harris County. Think they’re going to be surprised with what transpires…

Just stick with Herzog on ABC. All I gotta say lol

[Brazoriatx979]

Only decent met at khou is David paul