January 2025

[suprdav2]

NWS backing way off on snow for metro Houston. Went from 3.4 inches earlier today to 0.8 inches with the rest mostly sleet.

WeatherBug removed it completely from the 10 day and just has partly sunny skies Monday through Wed. Yes, yes ......I know weather apps aren't reliable, just found it odd and funny.

[christinac2016]

I took two screen shots from weather channel and apple weather. Not sure how to attach. For oak ridge north /the woodlands - Wednesday low of 18 with 85% snow. Apple weather has about the same.

[Stratton20]

GFS 18z much weaker warm nose, caved to euro with more snow south of i-10, previous runs were north of -i-10

[Brazoriatx979]

GFS 18z much weaker warm nose, caved to euro with more snow south of i-10, previous runs were north of -i-10

Keep it moving! Less freezing rain down here that way

[txsnowmaker]

GFS 18z much weaker warm nose, caved to euro with more snow south of i-10, previous runs were north of -i-10

A beautiful sight to behold.

[tireman4]

HGX AFD

045
FXUS64 KHGX 182214
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
414 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...

***Cold Weather Advisory Tonight - Sunday Morning***

Temperatures will fall into the mid-20s to mid-30s tonight.
Coupled with gusty north winds, wind chill values are expected to be
in the 15 to 25 degree range by Sunday morning. Bundle up if
spending time outdoors. Bring the pets inside. Cover or bring inside
sensitive plants.

***Winter Storm Watch In Effect Monday Night - Tuesday***

Key Points:

1) Frozen precipitation is likely over much of southeast Texas.

2) Trends favor snow north of I-10 with a wintry mix farther south.

3) 1-3" of accumulation of snow/sleet possible with the potential
for locally higher amounts. Up to 0.10" of ice accumulation possible.

There is an increasing threat for winter weather Monday night to
Tuesday afternoon time frame. The setup for this storm is quite
complex and the system remains too far into the future to be within
range of the higher resolution models. Therefore, uncertainty
remains relatively high regarding accumulation of snow and ice. The
potential is there for areas of heavy precipitation with any snow
bands that develop.

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 315 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

This morning`s FROPA left behind a fairly decent day across SE Texas
as highs creep into the upper 50s to low 60s with light to moderate
northerly winds. Winds will become gusty at times this afternoon
through the day Sunday.

Cold air advection and clearing skies will bring temperatures down
into the 20s to low 30s north of I-10 and into the low to mid 30s
south of I-10.

Breezy northerly winds and continued CAA will leave temps in the 40s
area wide for Sunday. Some locations in the northern Piney Woods
will struggle to reach 40 degrees.

Sunday night will feature an even colder night with lows dropping
into the 20s area wide. Northern Piney Woods will flirt with lows
near 20 degrees.

While the short-term remains quiet compared to the Winter Storm
expected in the long-term, do not discount the cold temperatures
expected tonight and Sunday night. Wind chill values will make
temperatures feel like they are in the teens to low 20s area wide. A
Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for tonight into Sunday morning.
With a winter storm on the horizon and very cold temperatures
expected beginning tonight, NOW is the time to prepare your pets,
pipes, plants, and loved ones.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

The primary forecast concern continues to surround the
development of a complex winter storm that is poised to bring very
hazardous travel conditions to SE TX from Monday evening through
the early part of Wednesday. While the forecast remains a
challenging one with uncertainties in the exact timing and amounts
of precipitation, confidence is increasing in our expectation for
all of SE TX to experience some form of accumulating winter
precipitation late Monday into Tuesday. As such, we have opted to
issue a Winter Storm Watch for all of the area beginning at 6 PM
on Monday and lasting until 6 PM on Tuesday.

The synoptic pattern driving this system remains on track compared
to the previous several forecast issuances. An arctic airmass
behind the passage of Saturday`s cold front will remain solidly in
place heading into the early part of next week, with low
temperatures below freezing in place across the region on Monday
morning. On Monday, a vigorous upper trough will dig into the
Southern Plains, initiating the development of a low pressure
system in the Western Gulf of Mexico. As this system pushes
eastward towards the SE TX coast, low-level moisture will
concurrently increase through the day on Monday. Associated winter
precipitation will begin as early as Monday evening, perhaps
beginning as more rain-dominant with highs in the upper 30s to
lower 40s during the afternoon. A transition to snow/mixed
precipitation will likely arrive overnight.

The overnight period of Monday through Tuesday morning will
encompass the peak of the winter storm. Model guidance, while
still retaining some uncertainty in this afternoon`s runs,
continues to generally favor snow along and north of the I-10
corridor and a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain for locations
south of I-10 and along the immediate coast. While we remain
outside of the range of most mesoscale models, we continue to
anticipate the potential for some localized mesoscale bands of
heavier precipitation, which could bring some higher snow/wintry
mix totals to a few areas. The current best snow total forecast
generally falls in the 1-3" range for a majority of SE TX, with
most of that falling during the early part of Tuesday. The
prospect of some heavier localized bands would mean a "reasonable
worst case scenario" of 4-6" for a few locations, with the most
favorable location to the NE of Metro Houston. Still, it`s too
early to pin down an exact location for any locally higher amounts
and this will need to be monitored closely. Ice potential remains
higher to the South of I-10, particularly the SW of Metro Houston.
Chances remain elevated for at least some accumulating ice (0.01"
or more) for most locations south of the I-10 corridor. A
reasonable worst case ice scenario could see totals as high as
0.1". This will all be accompanied by some gusty winds, with
sustained winds of around 20 mph and gusts of 25 mph or more.

With all this in mind, we anticipate very hazardous travel
conditions from Monday night to early Wednesday. Periods of
moderate to heavy mixed precipitation, with a mix of snow, sleet,
freezing rain, and cold rain will impact the area through Tuesday
afternoon. Roads will become slick, and could retain any icing
through the early part of Wednesday as temperatures remain below
freezing. Travel will be particularly hazardous on elevated
roadways and bridges which are more prone to freezing. In
general, travel should be avoided if possible and those needing to
travel should exercise significant caution if heading out on the
roads.

In addition to the precipitation threat, we expect an extended
period of below freezing temperatures through at least early
Thursday. Lows on Monday night and Tuesday night will generally
sit in the 20s for most of SE TX, with the northern zones
approaching a hard freeze. Areas near the coast could sit at or
perhaps just slightly above freezing. A stronger surge of cold air
arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday, with minimum temperatures in
the teens inland and the low/mid 20s along the immediate coast.
This may be compounded by the presence of snow on the ground,
particularly across the northern zones. As mentioned above, we
could see ice remaining in place on area roadways, in addition to
any remaining liquid on outdoor surfaces experiencing an
overnight re- freeze. As such, we won`t be out of the woods
travel-wise on Wednesday morning with the potential for icy
roadways lingering into the early afternoon. Slight improvement in
temperatures arrives by then, with highs in the upper 40s to
lower 40s across the area.

Slowly improving conditions are expected into next weekend with
highs in the low 50s by Friday and perhaps as high as the mid 60s
by Saturday and Sunday. For the time being, it`s time to make any
final winter weather preparations and ensure your safety during
the winter storm. It`s generally good advice to think about the
"4 Ps" - people, plants, pipes, and pets. Consider the actions
you may need to take now to ensure safety in the coming days.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

VFR conditions prevailing through the period. FROPA has resulted
in breezy NW winds with gusts up to around 25 kts. Winds will
remain elevated through the rest of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Moderate to strong winds will continue this afternoon, becoming
strong overnight through Sunday night. Small Craft advisories are
now in place through at least Sunday night due to those expected
winds. Winds are expected to become more northeasterly and
strengthen further Monday and Tuesday, reaching gale conditions over
the Gulf and possibly reaching gale conditions near the coast and in
the bays. In addition, there is increasing potential for frozen
precipitation near the coast Monday night into Tuesday.

Adams

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 28 41 24 41 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 32 44 27 39 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 37 44 34 43 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday
for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>212-300.

Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-
313-335>338-436>439.

Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Sunday for TXZ213-
214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338-436>439.

Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for
TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9 PM CST this evening
for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday
for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday
for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Adams

[Stratton20]

18z GEFS big shift south with the snow mean

[snowman65]

18z GEFS big shift south with the snow mean

I like it...

[captainbarbossa19]

This is the latest sounding data from the 18z GFS for Tuesday morning at 9. This is the perfect sounding for snow lovers. No melting layer present at all. Get ready folks.

[snowman65]

This is the latest sounding data from the 18z GFS for Tuesday morning at 9. This is the perfect sounding for snow lovers. No melting layer present at all. Get ready folks.

curious to the % of people in here that can read that chart lol. I cant lol

[tireman4]

We seasoned folks are waiting for this

While we remain
outside of the range of most mesoscale models, we continue to
anticipate the potential for some localized mesoscale bands of
heavier precipitation, which could bring some higher snow/wintry
mix totals to a few areas.

Really curious on the mesocycle models. This will help narrow down totals.

[Brazoriatx979]

This is the latest sounding data from the 18z GFS for Tuesday morning at 9. This is the perfect sounding for snow lovers. No melting layer present at all. Get ready folks.

Even for the coastal counties? Namely brazoria?

[captainbarbossa19]

This is the latest sounding data from the 18z GFS for Tuesday morning at 9. This is the perfect sounding for snow lovers. No melting layer present at all. Get ready folks.

curious to the % of people in here that can read that chart lol. I cant lol

So essentially, you want the red line to not cross the dark blue line to its right. The dark blue line is drawn diagonally and is the freezing line. Anything to the right of the dark blue line is considered the melting layer. In the sounding, the red line stays entirely to the left which is exactly what you want to see for snow!

[tireman4]

You cannot get a better sounding off of that 18Z GFS. Man oh man. I can try and explain it. When you see the lines almost straight together at the lowest parts of the atmosphere, that is almost a perfect set up for snow. There is no melting whatsoever from the midlevels down.

[Brazoriatx979]

You cannot get a better sounding off of that 18Z GFS. Man oh man. I can try and explain it. When you see the lines almost straight together at the lowest parts of the atmosphere, that is almost a perfect set up for snow. There is no melting whatsoever from the midlevels down.

Is that for all south eat texas or just certain parts

[captainbarbossa19]

This is the latest sounding data from the 18z GFS for Tuesday morning at 9. This is the perfect sounding for snow lovers. No melting layer present at all. Get ready folks.

Even for the coastal counties? Namely brazoria?

For Brazoria County, at 9 am the GFS is showing a small melting layer around 700 mb, but it is very marginal so I wouldn't be surprised to see mostly snow falling at this time. You don't want a warm melting layer or a thick melting layer or you will end up with sleet or worse freezing rain.

[tireman4]

What the Captain said. He is farther along than I am. Lol

[tireman4]

GFS

[DoctorMu]

You cannot get a better sounding off of that 18Z GFS. Man oh man. I can try and explain it. When you see the lines almost straight together at the lowest parts of the atmosphere, that is almost a perfect set up for snow. There is no melting whatsoever from the midlevels down.

The column is saturated and waiting.

[captainbarbossa19]

You cannot get a better sounding off of that 18Z GFS. Man oh man. I can try and explain it. When you see the lines almost straight together at the lowest parts of the atmosphere, that is almost a perfect set up for snow. There is no melting whatsoever from the midlevels down.

The column is saturated and waiting.

Yes. Everything below the dendritic growth zone (DGZ; yellow line on sounding for reference) is very saturated which means that we will likely see very big flakes when it snows! Or should I say you will all see it because I am here in Starkville hoping for something at all.