January 2025

[snowman65]

rgem looks similar to the euro precipitation wise, the euro keeps us below freezing on wednesday as well, heck the euro only gets us to about 36 degrees thrusday afternoon, that still not warm enough to melt things quickly, temps go below freezing thursday night so we may still have icing problems

A Gem of a run by CMC.

This makes me giddy!!!

[cureduchenne]

rgem looks similar to the euro precipitation wise, the euro keeps us below freezing on wednesday as well, heck the euro only gets us to about 36 degrees thrusday afternoon, that still not warm enough to melt things quickly, temps go below freezing thursday night so we may still have icing problems

A Gem of a run by CMC.

Not liking this run for Jackson county

[Cpv17]

rgem looks similar to the euro precipitation wise, the euro keeps us below freezing on wednesday as well, heck the euro only gets us to about 36 degrees thrusday afternoon, that still not warm enough to melt things quickly, temps go below freezing thursday night so we may still have icing problems

A Gem of a run by CMC.

Not for me lol

[Brazoriatx979]

Where would be the ideal place for that low in the Gulf to be to get rid of the warm nose?And everybody make the most out of this

[Cpv17]

I'm still not 100% sure where the heaviest corridor of snow will be. It could end up along I-10, or it could be north of Highway 105. Its going to depend on the placement of the Gulf low. Once we get in range of the HRRR and WRF models we will be able to better define where the transition line will setup. Whoever ends up in the deformation zone will get the heaviest accumulations of snow.

Where is the best case scenario for that low To set up at for us to avoid a warm nose and get the most out of this

Needs to be further west, I can tell you that much!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'm still not 100% sure where the heaviest corridor of snow will be. It could end up along I-10, or it could be north of Highway 105. Its going to depend on the placement of the Gulf low. Once we get in range of the HRRR and WRF models we will be able to better define where the transition line will setup. Whoever ends up in the deformation zone will get the heaviest accumulations of snow.

Where is the best case scenario for that low To set up at for us to avoid a warm nose and get the most out of this

Needs to be further west, I can tell you that much!

It has nothing to do with “further west”… it’s about how fast it deepens. It’s going to form near the coast of Texas and Mexico

[davidiowx]

rgem looks similar to the euro precipitation wise, the euro keeps us below freezing on wednesday as well, heck the euro only gets us to about 36 degrees thrusday afternoon, that still not warm enough to melt things quickly, temps go below freezing thursday night so we may still have icing problems

A Gem of a run by CMC.

That is hilariously bad and also one you can toss out!

[Cpv17]

Where is the best case scenario for that low To set up at for us to avoid a warm nose and get the most out of this

Needs to be further west, I can tell you that much!

It has nothing to do with “further west”… it’s about how fast it deepens. It’s going to form near the coast of Texas and Mexico

I only say that cuz there seems to be a warm nose further west and further east there doesn’t appear to be one.

[DoctorMu]

CPC hazard watch area has not changed. The only thing we've seen is a slight eastward shift in wintry precip in some of the models. Expect something similar, but a bit different. Welcome to complexity, chaos theory at the granular level.

[Stratton20]

Winter storm watch issued for all of se texas, its coming

[Cpv17]

Looking forward to the 18z suite!

[don]

.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
130 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
436>439-190330-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WS.A.0001.250121T0000Z-250122T0000Z/
Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-
Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin-
Waller-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-
Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Southern
Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-Coastal
Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands-Brazoria Islands-
Galveston Island-Bolivar Peninsula-
Including the cities of Huntsville, Somerville, Freeport,
Trinity, Hempstead, Shepherd, Winnie, Anahuac, Eagle Lake, Texas
City, Angleton, Friendswood, Sealy, Mission Bend, Pearland, Pecan
Grove, Pasadena, League City, Surfside Beach, Galveston, First
Colony, Brenham, Palacios, Mont Belvieu, Dickinson, Sugar Land,
Baytown, Navasota, Madisonville, Bryan, Wharton, Waller, Ganado,
Old River-Winfree, Dayton, Prairie View, Columbus, Brookshire,
Missouri City, Caldwell, Clute, Weimar, La Marque, Cleveland, El
Campo, Groveton, Edna, Bellville, Bay City, Devers, Conroe,
Rosenberg, Coldspring, The Woodlands, Liberty, College Station,
Houston, Stowell, Lake Jackson, Corrigan, Crockett, Alvin, and
Livingston
130 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to 3 inches with the potential for locally higher
amounts. Ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday
morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden
changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the
motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your
destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially
cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is
winterized and in good working order.

&&

$$

Cady

[DoctorMu]

Just beat me to it.

It's on.

.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
130 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
436>439-190330-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WS.A.0001.250121T0000Z-250122T0000Z/
Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-
Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Colorado-Austin-
Waller-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-
Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Southern
Liberty-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda-Coastal
Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands-Brazoria Islands-
Galveston Island-Bolivar Peninsula-
Including the cities of Huntsville, Somerville, Freeport,
Trinity, Hempstead, Shepherd, Winnie, Anahuac, Eagle Lake, Texas
City, Angleton, Friendswood, Sealy, Mission Bend, Pearland, Pecan
Grove, Pasadena, League City, Surfside Beach, Galveston, First
Colony, Brenham, Palacios, Mont Belvieu, Dickinson, Sugar Land,
Baytown, Navasota, Madisonville, Bryan, Wharton, Waller, Ganado,
Old River-Winfree, Dayton, Prairie View, Columbus, Brookshire,
Missouri City, Caldwell, Clute, Weimar, La Marque, Cleveland, El
Campo, Groveton, Edna, Bellville, Bay City, Devers, Conroe,
Rosenberg, Coldspring, The Woodlands, Liberty, College Station,
Houston, Stowell, Lake Jackson, Corrigan, Crockett, Alvin, and
Livingston
130 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to 3 inches with the potential for locally higher
amounts. Ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central and southeast Texas.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday
morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden
changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the
motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your
destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially
cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is
winterized and in good working order.

&&

$$

Cady

[don]

Looking forward to the 18z suite!

Yep, I'm also very interested to see what the HRRR and WRF's show tonight...

[txsnowmaker]

NWS backing way off on snow for metro Houston. Went from 3.4 inches earlier today to 0.8 inches with the rest mostly sleet.

[Brazoriatx979]

NWS backing way off on snow for metro Houston. Went from 3.4 inches earlier today to 0.8 inches with the rest mostly sleet.

They said up to 3 inches possible everywhere...with higher amounts locally. Sooo..will see..mother nature will do what she wants regardless of what a computer is telling her to do

[don]

NWS backing way off on snow for metro Houston. Went from 3.4 inches earlier today to 0.8 inches with the rest mostly sleet.

The HRRR did a VERY good job up here with last weeks storm when it came to predicting that the DFW area was going to mainly get sleet/rain. I'm bringing that up just to say that I wouldn't get too caught up in precip types until we get within range of the higher resolution CAMS (convective allowing models, or mesoscale models).

FYI one of the reasons I didn't move to DFW is not only because I wanted to leave the bigger cities and move into a smaller town. But also because the DFW area deals with more mixing issues ( as we saw last week)and less significant snowfall events due to them being further southeast. As I am more than 100 miles northwest of DFW. To put into more context Wichita Falls snowfall average is 6 inches a year while Dallas is around 2-3 inches. This area is able to get very cold due to being in between the Ouachita Mountains and the Caprock in the panhandle. These geological features act as barriers that funnel cold air into the western 1/3rd of Texas. Basically a form of cold air damming. We've had 14 freezes in January alone already! So we're at a total of 24 freezes so far this winter, by the end of this week we will likely be at over 30 freezes.

Here is a good write up on Texas winterstorm climatology: http://nwafiles.nwas.org/digest/papers/ ... 7-Ryan.pdf

snow1.PNG

[sswinney]

FWIW there’s been very light on and off rain showers in the Baybrook area.

[captainbarbossa19]

I'm still not 100% sure where the heaviest corridor of snow will be. It could end up along I-10, or it could be north of Highway 105. Its going to depend on the placement of the Gulf low. Once we get in range of the HRRR and WRF models we will be able to better define where the transition line will setup. Whoever ends up in the deformation zone will get the heaviest accumulations of snow.

So weird to talk about a deformation zone in SE Texas.

[Cromagnum]

Down to between 0.1 - 1.0 inches of snow here. Lame.