January 2025

[txsnowmaker]

HGX playing it extremely conservatively in their afternoon update…

“ Most likely amounts currently fall between a trace and 2". However, depending on a potential mesoscale banded snow setup impacting localized areas, it`s possible we could see a few
higher end amounts.”

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

[christinac2016]

Watching the weather people on networks. Are they coming in too warm on temps? I thought we had another shot of cold after Wednesday. It’s funny to hear them say snow. It did show Conroe and Woodlands area 4-8” snow!!

[Cpv17]

HGX playing it extremely conservatively in their afternoon update…

“ Most likely amounts currently fall between a trace and 2". However, depending on a potential mesoscale banded snow setup impacting localized areas, it`s possible we could see a few
higher end amounts.”

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

I think they’re concerned about the warm nose. That’s why they’re being conservative.

[Brazoriatx979]

Watching the weather people on networks. Are they coming in too warm on temps? I thought we had another shot of cold after Wednesday. It’s funny to hear them say snow. It did show Conroe and Woodlands area 4-8” snow!!

Yes, temperatures are likely a few degrees too warm..will know more once the mesoscale models run

[txsnowmaker]

Watching the weather people on networks. Are they coming in too warm on temps? I thought we had another shot of cold after Wednesday. It’s funny to hear them say snow. It did show Conroe and Woodlands area 4-8” snow!!

I’m following Channel 13 and don’t see any warm bias. High of 31 on Tuesday and low of 19 Wednesday morning.

https://abc13.com/weather/

[Brazoriatx979]

HGX playing it extremely conservatively in their afternoon update…

“ Most likely amounts currently fall between a trace and 2". However, depending on a potential mesoscale banded snow setup impacting localized areas, it`s possible we could see a few
higher end amounts.”

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

I think they’re concerned about the warm nose. That’s why they’re being conservative.

Didn't someone on here say that the 700mb was going to push out in the gulf and not return till Wednesday resulting in no warm nose

[Brazoriatx979]

Euro is on board. No warm nose

[Cpv17]

https://x.com/blakemathews08/status/188 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

Blake seems confident.

[Cpv17]

HGX playing it extremely conservatively in their afternoon update…

“ Most likely amounts currently fall between a trace and 2". However, depending on a potential mesoscale banded snow setup impacting localized areas, it`s possible we could see a few
higher end amounts.”

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

I think they’re concerned about the warm nose. That’s why they’re being conservative.

Didn't someone on here say that the 700mb was going to push out in the gulf and not return till Wednesday resulting in no warm nose

Yes, DoctorMu said that.

[Stratton20]

I think tv mets ( khou/ kprc) are way too warm on wednesday with highs in the mid - upper 40’s after starting off in the teens with l ice/snow on the ground, i seriously doubt we get much above freezing if above at all, all day wednesday , even herzog said we could have travel problems through thursday

[Cpv17]

I think tv mets ( khou/ kprc) are way too warm on wednesday with highs in the mid - upper 40’s after starting off in the teens with l ice/snow on the ground, i seriously doubt we get much above freezing if above at all, all day wednesday , even herzog said we could have travel problems through thursday

Yep, Herzog is on it. I was thinking the same thing too.

[TexasBreeze]

I haven't seen the gfs produce rain from today's disturbance eventhough i have seen light rain off and on for most of the day. How will it do next week? Anxious for the hrrr and other mesoscale models for this event!

[biggerbyte]

There has been a lot of exciting chatter about the prospects. Model support has been there. Everything appears to be a go on both the cold and the snow...............Until we get the opinions of local Mets, and even the NWS. It's like night and day what we hear from one side of the isle, vs. the other.

[Cromagnum]

18z Euro can kick rocks. It will just be dry cold here in Austin.

[DoctorMu]

HGX playing it extremely conservatively in their afternoon update…

“ Most likely amounts currently fall between a trace and 2". However, depending on a potential mesoscale banded snow setup impacting localized areas, it`s possible we could see a few
higher end amounts.”

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

I think they’re concerned about the warm nose. That’s why they’re being conservative.

Warm nose ain't happening.

[Cpv17]

HGX playing it extremely conservatively in their afternoon update…

“ Most likely amounts currently fall between a trace and 2". However, depending on a potential mesoscale banded snow setup impacting localized areas, it`s possible we could see a few
higher end amounts.”

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

I think they’re concerned about the warm nose. That’s why they’re being conservative.

Warm nose ain't happening.

I’ll take your word for it. Seems like Herzog is siding with the Euro.

[DoctorMu]

HGX playing it extremely conservatively in their afternoon update…

“ Most likely amounts currently fall between a trace and 2". However, depending on a potential mesoscale banded snow setup impacting localized areas, it`s possible we could see a few
higher end amounts.”

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

I think they’re concerned about the warm nose. That’s why they’re being conservative.

Didn't someone on here say that the 700mb was going to push out in the gulf and not return till Wednesday resulting in no warm nose

I posted that a while ago. Much different than the last system. The warm 700mb stuff stays offshore. Hope that prog. continues.

[DoctorMu]

I think they’re concerned about the warm nose. That’s why they’re being conservative.

Warm nose ain't happening.

I’ll take your word for it. Seems like Herzog is siding with the Euro.

I don't have the 18z Euro yet, but the 12Z Euro keeps the 0°C thermobar offshore while the storm moves up the Gulf coast.

The 0Z Euro will be a better marker. The 18z can have spurious data, at least in tropical season.

The only thing I'm seeing with a small concern is a slow drift eastward of the heavy snow banding. It's 5 blind men and the Elephant until the Mesos and Now casting are the go-tos. Continue to focus on the Ensembles for now. Phasers on stun. Kirk out.

[DoctorMu]

Our NWS forecast is nothing but snow precip. for Monday night and Tuesday.

[DoctorMu]

The first 84 hr sneak preview on NAM has snow starting in the Hill Country, extending to Waco and College Station.