January 2025

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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biggerbyte wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:44 am
Brazoriatx979 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:41 am
biggerbyte wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:36 am

Thank you for being polite enough to ask. I responded below to another post that was not so nice. I swear some people can be so nasty behind the vail of the internet. I've kept my mouth shut and took it for a long time out of respect for the forum. I get tired of it after a while. We are all supposed to be respectful adults up in here. I have nothing else to say about this matter. It's time to move on. My apologies to the moderators.
Wasn't being rude. Just asked a question
Not you. Please read my response to you again. I think it was Stormlover or something. Anyway.
Guys, we are all on the same side. :) Back to weather. :)
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Have a good day, everyone . I have to go get my treatments before it gets too bad to drive. Please plan for the weather to quickly deteriorate here in a few days. We have the weekend to get it together. If it doesn't get so bad, at least you were one of the smart ones.
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tireman4
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Let me repost this about Weather Apps. Although they are cool, they run off model runs ( most likely GFS). They can vary widely with each run. One run you have 6 inches of snow coming and the next run, dry and in the 40s. Be careful about using them. They are not the gospel.

Chris Michaels
@WRAL_Michaels
CBM #768 | Meteorologist for WRAL in Raleigh, NC.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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The football was manufactured overnight. It’s being delivered to 101 Lucy lane today.

She’s trying to find her tee tomorrow.
Team #NeverSummer
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tireman4 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:48 am
biggerbyte wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:44 am
Brazoriatx979 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:41 am

Wasn't being rude. Just asked a question
Not you. Please read my response to you again. I think it was Stormlover or something. Anyway.
Guys, we are all on the same side. :) Back to weather. :)
We are supposed to be, anyway.. We've been at this in this forum for years. We get one once in a while and have to to weed them out.

Have a good day, T.
Last edited by biggerbyte on Fri Jan 17, 2025 8:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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tireman4
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biggerbyte wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:52 am
tireman4 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:48 am
biggerbyte wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:44 am

Not you. Please read my response to you again. I think it was Stormlover or something. Anyway.
Guys, we are all on the same side. :) Back to weather. :)
We are supposed to be, anyway.. We've been at this in this forum for years. We ger one once in a while and have to to weed them out.

Have a good day, T.
You can DM me if you need to.
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tireman4 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:50 am Let me repost this about Weather Apps. Although they are cool, they run off model runs ( most likely GFS). They can vary widely with each run. One run you have 6 inches of snow coming and the next run, dry and in the 40s. Be careful about using them. They are not the gospel.

Chris Michaels
@WRAL_Michaels
CBM #768 | Meteorologist for WRAL in Raleigh, NC.
[/quote

The app I'm using draws information straight from NOAA/NWS. No, this is not the weather channel.

It was not directed at you, but those who use Weather Apps ( Apple and others). It was a general bit of information for those who are on the forum. :)
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tireman4 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:53 am
biggerbyte wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:52 am
tireman4 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:48 am

Guys, we are all on the same side. :) Back to weather. :)
We are supposed to be, anyway.. We've been at this in this forum for years. We ger one once in a while and have to to weed them out.

Have a good day, T.
You can DM me if you need to.
Yes. Thank you. I took care of it.... This time.
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:51 am The football was manufactured overnight. It’s being delivered to 101 Lucy lane today.

She’s trying to find her tee tomorrow.
I’ve seen this mentioned. Could you please explain?
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Model Comparisons
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tireman4 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 8:06 am Model Comparisons
man o man..... first one, please lol
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Tireman, there seems to be a problem that pops up occasionally where comments get bundled in with the quote.

I was saying that the app I'm using is information straight from NOAA/NWS. I don't use those third party weather apps such as the weather channel, etc.
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tireman4
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A continuously evolving winter storm threat to Houston next week tries to get a little snowier today
January 17, 2025 at 8:17 am by Matt Lanza


In brief: A complicated winter storm for Houston next week continues to give us fits in weather modeling, with today’s flavor being the potential for more snow and sleet than anything else. However, we expect the forecast to continue changing over the weekend and will keep you posted. Either way, travel across the Houston area may become very difficult Tuesday and Wednesday.

Winter storm update
What has changed since yesterday? Well, a lot. The storm is back. But this time it’s a bit colder overall, which means perhaps more in the way of snow and sleet than ice. That would be good news. That said, there remains a ton of uncertainty. As a native of New Jersey and having cut my teeth forecasting in Upstate New York, I have learned to never take a winter weather forecast from models literally. This is doubly true in the South where snow and ice are generally outside the bounds of climatology, which tends to give models fits and leads to us having to caveat every single thing we say.

Anyway, here’s the NWS National Blend of Models snow forecast for the last several runs. This incorporates a bunch of models and weights them. You can see a lot of fluctuation in outcomes here.


The last several runs of the National Blend of Models showing much fluctuation in snow totals in Houston. This remains a fluid and complicated situation.
What are we confident in? The timing. Precipitation should begin, lightly on Monday afternoon or evening. The height of the storm would likely be from about 4 AM to Noon Tuesday, with conditions slowly improving Tuesday afternoon. We are also fairly confident that Wednesday morning should be the coldest morning next week. A tropical-plant damaging freeze is likely on at least one or two mornings. An irrigation system damaging freeze is also likely if precautions are not taken.

What are we not confident in? How much of what falls where. While the models have brought the storm back into the forecast since yesterday, they remain a bit split on exactly how it plays out. We can say that in general today, it appears the highest odds of snow are north and east of Houston and the highest odds of ice are south of Houston and near the coast. Beyond that? We can’t say much. Unfortunately, that’s the most important question to answer in terms of travel conditions, school closures, etc. We will get some confidence on this through the weekend. We would think that by the morning of the MLK holiday, decisionmakers will have enough to work with.

What else aren’t we confident in? How cold it gets Wednesday morning. Snow cover is a significant component of what we refer to in meteorology as “ideal rational cooling,” the premise being clear skies, light winds, and snow cover all contribute toward an ideal scenario for cold weather. Without snow cover next week, we’ll likely see mostly 20s for lows with a few teens north. Cold for sure, but nothing extreme. However, let’s say we get 2″ of snow across Houston. Then we could easily shave an additional 5 degrees off that, nudging us into the teens everywhere except the coast.


The current low temperature forecast for Wednesday morning from the NWS is cold, but if we have snow cover, those areas would be easily 5 degrees colder.
So there is a lot to unpack here still, and over the next couple days we should begin to see clarity. Eric and I will keep you posted on all that as it evolves with regular updates through the weekend.

Houston Marathon
I admire anyone that runs a marathon. I especially admire anyone that does so with temperatures in the 30s and a north wind gusting up to 25 mph or so. That’s what we have for you on Sunday. Temps will rise a little through the run, possibly getting to near 40 degrees by the end, but either way, it’s going to be very cold. Good luck to Eric and to all those participating in the run(s) this year!

Rest of the forecast
For those of you with weekend plans, there could be an isolated shower this afternoon or tomorrow afternoon as the front moves in, but otherwise it looks dry. Temperatures will peak in the upper-60s or low-70s today, so bust out the shorts and enjoy! Tomorrow will likely get into the 60s before the front hits in the afternoon. Temperatures will then fall tomorrow evening through the 50s and 40s and into the 30s in most of the area, with some 20s in more rural spots north of I-20 by Sunday morning. Sunday gets up to the low or mid-40s, maybe and looks windy and cold.


NWS forecast for Houston through next week.
Monday will start in the 20s and warm into the upper-30s to low-40s. Depending on how the storm evolves, look for lows in the upper-20s and highs in the low or mid-30s on Tuesday with a breeze as well. Wednesday will probably get up near 40, but as noted above, there is some uncertainty on how cold it gets in the morning. And then a more proper warm up ensues for later next week.

Again, we will keep you posted regularly through the weekend on next week’s cold and potential winter precipitation.
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tireman4
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biggerbyte wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 8:21 am Tireman, there seems to be a problem that pops up occasionally where comments get bundled in with the quote.

I was saying that the app I'm using is information straight from NOAA/NWS. I don't use those third party weather apps such as the weather channel, etc.

I am aware. What I was saying, in response to you, is that it was not directed at you. It was directed at the forum in general. For those who are using Weather Apps that are not from the NWS. :)
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Wxman57 is all in.

“I'm in Houston. Snow likely up there starting Monday evening and ending Tuesday evening. Possible 3-5 inches snow on Tuesday. Temperatures below freezing Sunday afternoon to noon Monday then from Monday evening to Wednesday afternoon. Lowest temperature on Wednesday morning - mid teens.“
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tireman4 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 8:28 am
biggerbyte wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 8:21 am Tireman, there seems to be a problem that pops up occasionally where comments get bundled in with the quote.

I was saying that the app I'm using is information straight from NOAA/NWS. I don't use those third party weather apps such as the weather channel, etc.

I am aware. What I was saying, in response to you, is that it was not directed at you. It was directed at the forum in general. For those who are using Weather Apps that are not from the NWS. :)
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What's the difference between 10:1 and Kuchera?
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 10:51 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 10:39 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 10:21 pmCMC wtf!!
You should see what the CMC does east of here. Georgia and the Carolinas get close to two feet of snow. LOL
Rivaling the 1993 superstorm except further south. I remember it well
It’s funny you bring up the ‘93 storm because that pattern analogue has been on my watch list for a few days now. Different trajectory of the low but there are definitely some similarities in the evolution of the Gulf low.

Some little tidbits why ‘93 is so memorable for me:
- I left Texas for a year to start college in Alabama. I was at my grandparents’ in Birmingham for the storm. We got 16” of snow. Witnessed thundersnow for the first time - at night - easily, easily the coolest weather phenomenon I’ve ever experienced.
No power for a week. Two weeks for phone and cable. The National Guard was called-in to rescue people off the interstates. Carrot Top had all his props burn at a fire at the Improv. It was fun until it wasn’t.
- A week after, I drove back to Texas for Spring Break and the pine trees were still bent over all the way to Jackson
- The storm was a forecast modeling and public messaging breakthrough. We all knew days in advance the storm was coming, it was the ‘big one’ and we were all prepared. Back in ‘93 this set a whole new benchmark and expectation with winter storm forecasts
- It’s the first time I ever heard the term “explosive cyclogenisis”
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christinac2016 wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 8:06 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 7:51 am The football was manufactured overnight. It’s being delivered to 101 Lucy lane today.

She’s trying to find her tee tomorrow.
I’ve seen this mentioned. Could you please explain?
Have you seen the Charlie Brown clip where Lucy pulls the football away when Charlie is trying to kick it?

That’s winter weather in Houston.
Team #NeverSummer
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tireman4
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TexasBreeze wrote: Fri Jan 17, 2025 8:38 am What's the difference between 10:1 and Kuchera?
Some have asked what the "AF Method" is in some of our snow accumulation products. Snowfall shown in model output typically is the result of taking the model's forecast liquid precipitation amount, and converting it to snowfall (where the model forecasts snow) using some sort of conversion ratio. A (flawed) standard often used is 10:1 (10 inches of snow per 1 inch of water). In reality, the ratio will fluctuate from event to event, and from location to location due to a variety of factors (temperatures at the surface and aloft, moisture, near-surface winds, upward motion/moisture in the "snow growth" region, etc). We currently generate snowfall amounts using two methods. The first is a simple ratio of 13:1 (which is the climatological normal for the Twin Cities area). The second method is more complex, and should produce better results in most situations, since it takes temperature (surface and aloft) into account, and allows for the ratio to vary in space and time. We refer to this method as the "AF Method" on our website. AF stands for Air Force, since this method is based on a method used by them (also known as the Kuchera method). In a nutshell, here is how snowfall is computed via this method... Where the model forecasts snow: 1) Find the maximum temperature in the lowest 500 hPa in degrees K (MaxT). 2) If MaxT is greater than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RAT) is 12.0 + 2.0*(271.16-MaxT). 3) If MaxT is less than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RAT) is 12.0 + (271.16-MaxT). The hourly snowfall is RAT multiplied by the hourly liquid precipitation total. The accumulated snowfall is the sum of all the hourly snow values up the given forecast hour.
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