January 2025

[biggerbyte]

I don't see temperatures any worse than they have already been. So much for siberian vs. polar vortex. LOL
I know of a lot of professionals who should be embarrassed this morning. Wxman57 has had this winter BS right all along

[tireman4]

Model Comparisons

[biggerbyte]

CMC is still hanging on. It is the lone wolf..I'm glad you all are good either way with this. We have three more days to lock it in, or out. Gosh, these are the same words we used with the last front.. " Let's give it until Sunday"..

[Brazoriatx979]

i agree give it till this weekend. they will figure out this disturbance and how to handle them. Then we should have much greater agreement.

[tireman4]

NWS Houston
@NWSHouston
7:05 AM
Chance of Hard Freeze remains high north of I-10 Tuesday/Wednesday morning.

Continue to monitor the chance of frozen precipitation late Monday into Tuesday.

Cold weather is a certainty.

Frozen precipitation is more uncertain.

#HOUwx #GLSwx #BCSwx #TXwx

[DoctorMu]

Canadian:

Snow north of Hwy 1^5

Mixed precipitation north of I-10

[Brazoriatx979]

Canadian:

Snow north of Hwy 1^5

Mixed precipitation north of I-10

south of I10 rain

[AtascocitaWX]

This is why I never get too excited about snow in Houston.
Things have to be almost for that to happen. When I see models showing snow 7-10 days out I don't buy it. Lucy has took that ball away way too much.

[biggerbyte]

So, here is the deal. Me and my coff-e just had a good honest run with the big picture. Let me say this, at this juncture..Sunday is the key. We are all getting frantic now that time is approaching. I know I personally need a distraction, and snow would definitely do it.

Without getting into a lot of detail right now, I'm putting the fork back into the drawer. This cold airmass looks to sink even further south than originally suggested. Ice is coming off the table. It's "go snow" for all locations that get anything at all..

Even a light freeze supports snow, and we don't have to have a foot of it to be happy. Just enough to build a snowman large enough for it to give the finger to my neighbors.. Muhahahaha

[snowman65]

The lie-berian express?? lol

[tireman4]

1200Z Surface Analysis

[Brazoriatx979]

Storm still there on the 12z ICON...Keeping hope alive! lol

[DoctorMu]

Canadian:

Snow north of Hwy 1^5

Mixed precipitation north of I-10

south of I10 rain

Correct

[Brazoriatx979]

hmmm

[tireman4]

HGX AFD this morning ( 5:45 am)

Guidance appears to vary significantly regarding a mid/upper
disturbance riding along the periphery of the trough and the
amount of moisture that will surge northward from the Gulf on
Monday and Tuesday. Obviously, we need moisture along with the
cold air to produce wintry precip. But the role of the potential
mid/upper disturbance is crucial as well because it could provide
the larger scale lift needed for a more widespread precipitation
event. Ensemble data generally supports the idea that there will
be enough lift and moisture to result in at least light
precipitation. 00Z DESI long range ensemble guidance indicates a
50-70% chance of at least seeing a little snow falling from the
sky. But these high values are strongly skewed by the ECMWF
memebers, whose thermaldynamic profile mimic the deterministic
ECMWF. Also, with the ECMWF trending drier in the 00Z run, one has
to wonder if this is a fluke, or if it`s a sign of a future
trend. If it trends any drier, then these high DESI probabilities
will decrease significantly. If we increase our standards to the
chance of receiving at least an inch of snow, the same data shows
probabilities ranging from 50-60% in our northern counties, to
30-40% near I-10, and 10-25% at the coast. Once again, if the
colder ECMWF members are taken out, these probabilities decrease
significantly. Regarding freezing rain, the same data suggests a
~15-25% of light glaze across the southern half of the CWA.

Given the ensemble still lean towards our area receiving at least
light wintry precip, we opted to keep a chance of wintry precip in
the forecast for most of SE Texas Monday night into Tuesday.
Still lots of uncertainty with this one. But there`s enough of a
chance of frozen precip to keep it in the forecast. Too early to
talk about precip amounts with any confidence.

[Rip76]

Good write up.

[Brazoriatx979]

cmc says hold my beer

[Stratton20]

And the GFS may be starting to come back around just a bit, the CMC gets even more crazy with a winter storm

[Brazoriatx979]

And the GFS may be starting to come back around just a bit, the CMC gets even more crazy with a winter storm

how reliable is the cmc tho lol

[Pas_Bon]

And the GFS may be starting to come back around just a bit, the CMC gets even more crazy with a winter storm

how reliable is the cmc tho lol

On a scale of 0-10, where 10 is "most reliable," I'd give the CMC a negative 2.

Kidding.....it's not great, not terrible.