January 2025

[DoctorMu]

I remember Dec 20, 1989. I had just gotten out of the Marine Corps. Had spent the following year in Okinawa, Japan. When I got off the plane in Houston I thought I was on the wrong plane and got off in Buffalo. That waz crazy!!

I was living in Gainesville, FL Very unusual snow and ice. Temps stayed below freezing for a couple of days. Arkansas was below zero.

[DoctorMu]

Hold my icicle, GFS.

[Stratton20]

CMC nasty ice/ sleet storm down here, GFS is hilariously bad, just compared its 500 mb to all the other guidance at day 5, it’s actually pathetic

[Cromagnum]

May as well rename the GFS to "Good for something?" model. It's so bad.

[Stratton20]

00z Euro says all snow for se texas, not even a mix, straight up light to moderate snow!

[txsnowmaker]

00z Euro says all snow for se texas, not even a mix, straight up light to moderate snow!

That makes more sense if we’re really talking about a Siberian front.

[txsnowmaker]

00z Euro says all snow for se texas, not even a mix, straight up light to moderate snow!

I also suspect it’s a bit off - don’t see Galveston getting more snow than Houston lol.

[Cpv17]

00z Euro says all snow for se texas, not even a mix, straight up light to moderate snow!

I also suspect it’s a bit off - don’t see Galveston getting more snow than Houston lol.

Well sometimes in these setups there could be better moisture near the coast.

[Stratton20]

Big shift east on the EPS with the trough, looks similar to the GFS, Im really hoping thats not a trend

[txsnowmaker]

If this moves east then it was never Siberian air as advertised. Siberian air goes straight down south, it doesn’t get shunted east.

[mcheer23]

00z EURO 500mb pattern matches closely with the GFS… not a trend you want to see…

[Cpv17]

00z EURO 500mb pattern matches closely with the GFS… not a trend you want to see…

Weird if the PNA was supposed to go towards neutral or negative like others have been saying.

[biggerbyte]

Indeed. I mentioned this earlier today that things are trending in the wrong direction. If this continues until two or three days out I'm digging out all of my forks. I'm going to stab this "Siberian cold front" in the boot...The NWS is still mentioning a mix of light precipitation with no sub freezing temps during the day. They just don't seem confident enough yet. I don't blame them.

[mcheer23]

Indeed. I mentioned this earlier today that things are trending in the wrong direction. If this continues until two or three days out I'm digging out all of my forks. I'm going to stab this "Siberian cold front" in the boot...The NWS is still mentioning a mix of light precipitation with no sub freezing temps during the day. They just don't seem confiden enough yet. I don't blame them.

NWS Houston said this morning there was a “medium to high confidence “ of frozen precip. I’m shocked by the models

[biggerbyte]

Indeed. I mentioned this earlier today that things are trending in the wrong direction. If this continues until two or three days out I'm digging out all of my forks. I'm going to stab this "Siberian cold front" in the boot...The NWS is still mentioning a mix of light precipitation with no sub freezing temps during the day. They just don't seem confiden enough yet. I don't blame them.

NWS Houston said this morning there was a “medium to high confidence “ of frozen precip. I’m shocked by the models

They have raised the chances to 50% since I looked earlier..I guess their confidence is indeed growing this evening after all. GFS has been terrible with this. CMC is on board. I agree overall about the models.

[Brazoriatx979]

Damm, it's like death valley in here after the euro 500mb. It's still early guys let's not freak out yet

[redneckweather]

Indeed. I mentioned this earlier today that things are trending in the wrong direction. If this continues until two or three days out I'm digging out all of my forks. I'm going to stab this "Siberian cold front" in the boot...The NWS is still mentioning a mix of light precipitation with no sub freezing temps during the day. They just don't seem confiden enough yet. I don't blame them.

NWS Houston said this morning there was a “medium to high confidence “ of frozen precip. I’m shocked by the models

They will change their tune later this morning after they see the latest mod trends.

[Brazoriatx979]

HGX....


The big story during the long term is the much anticipated arctic
front over the weekend and subsequent chance of wintry precip
early next week. I gotta say, I was hoping to come into this night
shift with a growing data consensus. Unfortunately, this was not
the case. You have models like the deterministic GFS which decided
to come in less cold and with lower PoPs. Then you have models
like the deterministic ECMWF which is technically drier and
indicating much lower QPF while also trending towards a more
favorable thermodynamic profile for snow (even at the coast). The
CMC, per usual, shows significant ice and snow across the region
while the ICON shows a significant Deep South snow from portions
of SE TX to the Florida Panhandle. With deterministic guidance
trending all over the place, I attempted to find clarity among the
ensembles. But the wintry precip picture is quite murky on the
ensemble side as well.


So in a nutshell...Nobody really knows wtf is going on

[snowman65]

I said, on page 46, there will be a lot of disappounted people with this one. Its just hard/rare to get the good stuff here. I would love to be wrong because I like crow, but I also like reality lol. Still time for something to happen but not heading the right direction right now. Yeah, it will be quite cold, but without any snow its just not as enjoyable lol

[walsean1]

These models run are going to flip flop. I wouldn’t worry about that at this time. Also they do not handle cold weather pattern well. We are under a hazardous outlook for below normal temperatures all next week. Also we have a high chance of above normal precipitation in the same period. I saw one of the models this morning and it still has a storm for Tuesday.