January 2025

[tireman4]

With an increasing confidence ( I am still not completely sold, but again, I am that Debbie Downer student Met), it is looking like we may have frozen P-Type in the CWA. I would side with the folks at the HGX NWS on this event. I think areas north of I10 ( me) will see more in the snow/sleet mixture. I have a strange feeling it might be an all day event on Wednesday. Now, one way or another, make sure to have plans to winterize your homes. The steps you took during the February 2021 event will work. I had my pipes on a very slow run all day and night. I am going to use hand warmers for my outside spigots. I also have expandable pipes, so that helped in 2021.

[tireman4]

Forecast for Today

699
FXUS64 KHGX 151137
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
537 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 433 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

A coastal trough off the lower Texas coast is helping fuel
sprinkles to isolated light showers early this morning. While
those showers should be a bit more substantial today, the trough
will stay far enough offshore that we`ll see little more impact
than those light showers.

The big conversational piece of the forecast remains next week,
once a big arctic airmass pushes its way across, well...most of
the continental US. There`s been lots of chatter about what`s
going to happen, and there are certainly multiple possibilities on
the table, so here are the big things to remember right now:
- There is very high confidence (above 80%) that temperatures will
be below average next week, and persist for several days from
Sunday onward.
- Confidence is not as high about how intense the cold snap will
be, and become less certain closer to the Gulf Coast. For
instance, the potential for nights with a more impactful hard
freeze is highest for a northern location like Crockett (seen in
60-75 percent of model guidance). Around the Houston metro, that
potential is lower (seen in 20-45 percent of model guidance).
Confidence goes up again right at the coast, simply due to the
low potential for a hard freeze all the way to the Gulf;
Galveston sees a hard freeze in less than 5 percent of the
guidance.
- Similarly, numerous scenarios for potential wintry precipitation
are on the table, as confidence is lower in how cold the
incoming air will be, and if that will overlap with enough
moisture and support for precipitation. In the Monday-Wednesday
time frame, there is potential for rain, freezing rain, sleet,
snow, or a mix of any and all of these types.
- The forecast situation - especially for precipitation type - is
highly fluid (possibly *much* more fluid than some
precipitation might be!). Please keep up with the latest
forecasts from our office as we draw closer to this upcoming
cold period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 433 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

The radar is pretty active early this morning, perhaps
surprisingly so if you go outside and haven`t experienced more
anything more than a bit of a sprinkle. This is a pretty strong
example of the column moistening from the top down. We had high
clouds 24 hours ago, plus mid-level clouds tonight, and apparently
enough moisture and lift for elevated showers to sprout across the
area. However, the low levels are still quite dry, as parts of the
area still have dewpoints below 40 and RH below 60 percent, which
is pretty low for this area at this time of night.

Of course, this moisture is filling in at lower levels. IAH has
begun reporting a few clouds below 3,000 feet, down from the
6,000 or so feet that most locations are reporting their lowest
clouds at. And as we continue to build that moisture at lower
levels, the showers will gradually become a bit more substantial
today. They still won`t be anything more than some light to
occasionally moderate showers, but certainly more than sprinkles.

Now, why is that? Well, as we often see this time of year, the
surface feature driving unsettled weather is a coastal trough
developing off the Texas coast, developing underneath a weak upper
trough passing overhead. When these situations create stormier
conditions, it`s often because these two features at the surface
and aloft are in a phase where they build/support each other, and
track up the Texas coastline. We are...getting neither of those
today.

Today, the upper trough looks to scoot its way more west-to-east
over the open Gulf, with a weaker trough chasing behind it, well
offshore and not tracking towards our upper coast. This limits
onshore flow and the return of significant moisture and warmer
air. It also turns winds around to be offshore more quickly,
ushering drier continental air sooner. And finally, it keeps the
best lift well away from our area. And thus, we get only lighter
showers!

Temperature-wise, expect the lows this morning to be among the
warmest of the week, thanks mainly to the overcast sky. The only
night with higher minimum temps should be Friday night (more on
that in the long term section). We get the flip side of that coin
during the day today, with temperatures only rising 10ish degrees
(or fewer, in spots!) for afternoon highs in the lower to middle
50s. Once winds turn offshore and scour out what modest moisture
we`ve been able to build, that should allow for a chillier night
tonight, with lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s. But despite
that, I`d expect highs tomorrow to actually be a bit warmer thanks
to some more sun, with highs around or a little above 60 degrees.

Congratulations, you have read (or skipped over) six paragraphs
about the part of the forecast almost none of us care about!
Please proceed to the long term section of the forecast, aka
"Showtime!"

[cperk]

With an increasing confidence ( I am still not completely sold, but again, I am that Debbie Downer student Met), it is looking like we may have frozen P-Type in the CWA. I would side with the folks at the HGX NWS on this event. I think areas north of I10 ( me) will see more in the snow/sleet mixture. I have a strange feeling it might be an all day event on Wednesday. Now, one way or another, make sure to have plans to winterize your homes. The steps you took during the February 2021 event will work. I had my pipes on a very slow run all day and night. I am going to use hand warmers for my outside spigots. I also have expandable pipes, so that helped in 2021.

When you say expandable pipes i assume you are referring to pex which i had my entire home repiped with and i had no issues with pipe damage in 2021.

[tireman4]

With an increasing confidence ( I am still not completely sold, but again, I am that Debbie Downer student Met), it is looking like we may have frozen P-Type in the CWA. I would side with the folks at the HGX NWS on this event. I think areas north of I10 ( me) will see more in the snow/sleet mixture. I have a strange feeling it might be an all day event on Wednesday. Now, one way or another, make sure to have plans to winterize your homes. The steps you took during the February 2021 event will work. I had my pipes on a very slow run all day and night. I am going to use hand warmers for my outside spigots. I also have expandable pipes, so that helped in 2021.

When you say expandable pipes i assume you are referring to pex which i had my entire home repiped with and i had no issues with pipe damage in 2021.

Correct.

[sambucol]

It’s quiet here. Did the models change from last night? Or is everyone getting ready for next week?

[tireman4]

From Jeff

Strong arctic cold front will arrive late this weekend.
Increasing chances for both widespread freezes and winter precipitation over the region next week.
Coastal trough today will move eastward tonight with a cool cloudy and damp day in place before a warm up on Thursday and Friday…enjoy that…because is ends Saturday and we will be in the icebox much of next week. With clear skies temperatures Thursday will reach near 60 and near 70 on Friday with increasing moisture ahead of the first push of colder air that will arrive over the area on Saturday. This first front will be similar to what we saw last we with gusty northerly winds and temperatures falling into the 40’s and 50’s behind the boundary. Temperatures Sunday AM in the 30’s for much of the area with a freeze likely north of the metro with north winds of 10-20mph under clear to partly cloudy skies.
Large and sprawling 1050mb+ arctic high then drops into the northern and central plains late on Sunday and rapidly pushes an arctic cold front through the area…temperatures will tumble from there already cool levels even more with nearly all of the area below freezing by Monday AM and when combined with strong northerly winds wind chills will fall into the 10’s and low 20’s for much of the area. A cold weather advisory is almost certainly going to be needed. Temperatures will only recover into the 30’s/low 40’s for highs on Monday. Hard freezes become possible Tuesday AM (along and north of I-10) with freezing conditions likely down to near the coast. Similar if not slightly colder conditions will be in place for next Wednesday AM…but this is getting pretty far out and has some dependence on how much and what kind of precipitation falls. Given such a strong surface high pressure cell moving down the plains…it is possible that temperatures trend downward some over the next few days.
Proper winterization preparations will be needed for this cold air outbreak and will need to be completed by this weekend. Failure to conduct proper winterization efforts will likely result in damage to sensitive infrastructure.
Protect sensitive vegetation (survival of sensitive/tropical vegetation is unlikely).
Protect any exposed outdoor pipes (sprinkler systems should be shut off and properly drained). Even some interior and protected pipes could have some concerns with this cold.
Prepare proper shelter and warmth for animals and livestock and make sure water sources do not freeze over.
Persons should limit outside exposure to a minimum.
Winter Precipitation:
Guidance continues to indicate a mid level trough moving across Texas forcing a coastal low similar to last week…the big difference is that temperatures both at the surface and aloft are about 10 degrees colder with this upcoming event which will introduce a mixture of precipitation types (P-type) across the region. While still several days away…confidence and consistency in the guidance is increasing that some sort of impactful winter storm will occur across SE TX starting as early as Monday afternoon/evening and lasting into Wednesday. Forecasted soundings on the global models show a higher potential for snow/sleet the further north over the area (say north of I-10) with a mixture of freezing rain and sleet to the south. The National Blend of Models (NBM) is trending toward more snow than ice for what that is worth at this range. Given surface temperatures below freezing and possibly well below freezing accumulations of ice/snow look possible (how much and what kind of impacts) will be determined in the coming days.

[Pas_Bon]

It’s quiet here. Did the models change from last night? Or is everyone getting ready for next week?

Getting ready and waiting with bated breath.

[tireman4]

Next Week

[tireman4]

Here is a little Meteorology 101 for you folks that are new...This setup coming is a classic example of a McFarland Signature. The Brownsville NWS named dropped this in their AFD this morning. For areas in Brownsville and even in Houston, it is hard to get frozen P-Type precipitation. It is tricky to forecast and even harder to get. Well there was a paper that written about it by M.J. McFarland in 1976 about this very happening. Essentially it is a very cold air mass coming from the north with nothing to stop it but the barbed wire fences in the plains. With overriding moisture coming in from the West, you have a classic set up for "potential" frozen precipitation.

"A cold front with air derived from the arctic will arrive on Saturday and we will have a McFarland clone (referring to the
classic 1976 paper by M.J. McFarland describing a synoptic setup that produces unusually cold weather for deep South Texas). Once a
cold front moves through, the mid-level trough axis from Hudson Bay southwest across the United States with a north-south blocking
ridge to the west allows very cold air to plummet south through nothing but barbed wire fencing over the Plains. The resulting
"signature" is often present when extreme cold devastates local agriculture, especially when that industry was of major importance."

[TexasBreeze]

Seems like today's little system is overperforming. It has been raining all night and morning!

[Brazoriatx979]

Icon

[TexasBreeze]

Looking above and from 0z last night the icon amounts increased a bit!

[snowman65]

Icon

Im in the SWEET spot!!

[Stratton20]

GFS 2-5 inches of snow for se texas, CMC major sleet/ ice storm

[sambucol]

Thanks Stratton!!

[Brazoriatx979]

whats all this talk on 2k abut not liking the gfs trends? is that for north texas and not here?

[TexasBreeze]

North Texas2k isn't liking the trends of the more suppressed precip. It barely has anything north of I10 and hwy 105.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

whats all this talk on 2k abut not liking the gfs trends? is that for north texas and not here?

They aren’t talking about SETX. My guess is the poster in question doesn’t like how suppressed the moisture is for his/her location in Mississippi.

[cperk]

North Texas2k isn't liking the trends of the more suppressed precip. It barely has anything north of I10 and hwy 105.

North Texas2k

[don]

It’s people in Louisiana and Mississippi that were complaining about the GFS because it suppresses the storm so much that they don’t get any winter precipitation in the southeast from the setup.