January 2025

[cperk]

I just hope the damn power doesn't go out again

I think there will be issues but not because ERCOT didn’t prepare. You can’t fight pine trees coated in ice.

I don't know about that Jason a reporter from KHOU interviewed the Lt Governor last week and his answers regarding the health of the grid has me concerned.

[tireman4]

Pete Cavlin

[Brazoriatx979]

just wanted to make sure we are all clear on the possible scenarios here

[snowman65]

impact differences between Houston and Golden Triangle? or pretty similar? Im north of I-10 about 6 miles, rigjt on La border.

[txsnowmaker]

NWS already has mention of snow showers in their forecast for Monday in the city of Houston. They’re no weather app and never mention snow down here this far out…

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... -95.487445

[mcheer23]

Pete Cavlin

50 percent for an inch
70 percent for .1

[Stormlover2020]

Tonight’s models runs will probably disappoint us lol will piss me off

[Brazoriatx979]

Tonight’s models runs will probably disappoint us lol will piss me off

It's a given at this point who knows, maybe they will stay with it

[Pas_Bon]

Tonight’s models runs will probably disappoint us lol will piss me off

Watch.....tonight's model runs will indicate 80-degree highs, 65-degree lows, and no rain

[Stratton20]

CPC has all of se texas in a high risk of hazardous cold temperatures, havent seen that in several years, the siberian express is coming full time

[vci_guy2003]

Tonight’s models runs will probably disappoint us lol will piss me off

wanna bet?

[Stormlover2020]

Tonight’s models runs will probably disappoint us lol will piss me off

wanna bet?

I don’t bet, remember reverse psychology

[vci_guy2003]

where are the best sledding places in Houston btw? I've been waiting for this my whole life! Hermann Park has some hills doesn't it?

[tireman4]

CPC has all of se texas in a high risk of hazardous cold temperatures, havent seen that in several years, the siberian express is coming full time

Yep...

[don]

Yikes the NWS went even colder in the afternoon update with a low now of 11 degrees on Sunday.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

KC is still covered in snow up here.

Gorgeous 29 degrees and sun with a foot of snow on the ground.

Here’s to me bringing some of that back to SETX!

[snowman65]

Yikes the NWS went even colder in the afternoon update with a low now of 11 degrees on Sunday.

Glad I'm off Monday!!!

[tireman4]

483
FXUS64 KHGX 142120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
320 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 218 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

Tranquil conditions will prevail this evening along with mostly
cloudy skies. Rain chances will increase Wednesday morning in
response to a low pressure system over the Western Gulf of Mexico
bringing a surge of low level moisture while an upper level
trough moves across the Southern Plains. Expect the rainfall to
persist for much of the day as the low pressure system slightly
shifts east. Locations near and south of I-10 should get most of
the rainfall, since the system may remain south enough for areas
in and near the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region to only see a
few sprinkles here and there. That being said, with the higher
rainfall chances being south of I-10, we can expect high
temperatures to be in the low to mid 50s range for that region,
whereas the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods locations may have highs
in the mid to upper 50s (reverse of what we typically see).

Rain chances will ebb Wednesday night into early Thursday as the
low tracks east to southeast and the upper level trough axis moves
to our east. Cooler drier air is expected in the wake of the low
and clouds will scatter out from north to south, resulting in
early Thursday morning temperatures dipping into the low to mid
30s over the Piney Woods region, the upper 30s to lower 40s for
the rest of the inland portions, and the mid to upper 40s along
the immediate coasts.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 218 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

Quite a transition on tap during the extended period from near or
just above normal and relatively pleasant weather Thursday and
Friday to return of arctic air by early next week. A slight warm
up is still forecast through Friday with highs generally in the
65-70f degree range to end the work week into Saturday, before the
first cold front surges into the area. Clouds and rain chances
are expected to increase over parts of the area late Friday into
Saturday ahead of this front, with some clearing behind the front
into Sunday afternoon. This will usher in an initial surge of cold
air with freezing temperatures returning into our northern
counties from the Brazos Valley into the Piney Woods. While cold,
this surge may be similar to the cold front last week. The coldest
air of the season is still expected to push across TX Monday into
Tuesday. This is when the forecast gets quite tricky trying to
pin down the magnitude of this cold air, as well as the chances of
seeing snow or sleet/freezing rain behind this reinforcing front.
I would not advice zeroing in on a single forecast model, or
model run, but to think in terms of uncertainty. This far out we
will keep close to the mean NBM values for now. However the temps
could very well keep trending colder as the NBM members begin to
coalesce over the coming days. Currently, more certain of a hard
freeze north of i10, although the 25th percentile min temps from
the nbm bring a hard freeze down to the coast Tuesday morning.

There remains quite a a bit of uncertainty regarding wintery
precipitation late Monday and Tuesday as a fast moving system
overspreads the western Gulf of Mexico. This could bring
sufficient ascent and moisture over southeast TX for some
snow/light icing. This energy and associated surface low could
also stay well into the Gulf of Mexico with mostly dry and cold
conditions across our area. The NBM deterministic guidance does
have some mention in the forecast, so will opt to leave those in
play for now. However, this can all change- and probably will!

Evans

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1103 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

E to NE winds at 05-10 KTS expected today, becoming Light and VRB
tonight. BKN/OVC skies will prevail, although remaining VFR today.
Lower decks can be expected overnight into Wed morning, with some
coastal sites possibly lowering to MVFR. A low pressure system
will be developing over the W Gulf and will bring in some showers
Wed. Showers could begin over the coastal regions around sunrise
and is expected to expand inland during the late morning hours.
Confidence of showers for sites north of IAH is low, given that
the low could remain south enough for these areas to just be
dealing with OVC skies. Still would not rule out a passing shower
or two for these sites. The areas that will most likely be dealing
with wx and bouncing cigs would be closer to the coast, such as
LBX/GLS/HOU/SGR.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

Moderate to occasionally strong northeast to east winds and seas
generally between 3 to 6 feet are expected through Thursday.
Caution flags will continue today. A Small Craft Advisory will go
into effect for the Gulf waters late tonight into Thursday
evening. Rain chances will be on the rise tonight into Wednesday
as a coastal low develops over the western Gulf of Mexico and
tracks east/southeast.

Onshore flow briefly returns Friday, turning southwesterly Friday
night into Saturday morning, ahead of the next cold front. The
front is forecast to move across Southeast TX on Saturday morning,
possibly pushing off the coast before noon. Strong north to
northeast winds and elevated seas will develop in the wake of the
front Sunday into Monday. Winds are expected to remain strong
Monday into Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens in response
to high pressure building over northern TX and a coastal low
developing over the western Gulf.

In general, expect Caution Flags and Advisories throughout much
of the forecast period. Low waters levels are possible Sunday
into early next week. In addition, very cold air expected Monday
night into Tuesday morning, possibly bringing low temperatures
down into the upper 20s over the Barrier Islands and inland
coasts.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 45 56 36 63 / 10 20 10 0
Houston (IAH) 47 54 41 62 / 10 40 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 49 55 47 57 / 20 60 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday evening
for GMZ330.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
GMZ350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ350-
355.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to midnight CST
Wednesday night for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cotto (24)
LONG TERM....Evans
AVIATION...Cotto (24)
MARINE...Cotto (24)

[tireman4]

Weather Next Week


Clouds and rain chances
are expected to increase over parts of the area late Friday into
Saturday ahead of this front, with some clearing behind the front
into Sunday afternoon. This will usher in an initial surge of cold
air with freezing temperatures returning into our northern
counties from the Brazos Valley into the Piney Woods. While cold,
this surge may be similar to the cold front last week. The coldest
air of the season is still expected to push across TX Monday into
Tuesday. This is when the forecast gets quite tricky trying to
pin down the magnitude of this cold air, as well as the chances of
seeing snow or sleet/freezing rain behind this reinforcing front.
I would not advice zeroing in on a single forecast model, or
model run, but to think in terms of uncertainty. This far out we
will keep close to the mean NBM values for now. However the temps
could very well keep trending colder as the NBM members begin to
coalesce over the coming days. Currently, more certain of a hard
freeze north of i10, although the 25th percentile min temps from
the nbm bring a hard freeze down to the coast Tuesday morning.

There remains quite a a bit of uncertainty regarding wintery
precipitation late Monday and Tuesday as a fast moving system
overspreads the western Gulf of Mexico. This could bring
sufficient ascent and moisture over southeast TX for some
snow/light icing. This energy and associated surface low could
also stay well into the Gulf of Mexico with mostly dry and cold
conditions across our area. The NBM deterministic guidance does
have some mention in the forecast, so will opt to leave those in
play for now. However, this can all change- and probably will!

Evans

[ejburas]

KC is still covered in snow up here.

Gorgeous 29 degrees and sun with a foot of snow on the ground.

Here’s to me bringing some of that back to SETX!

Yeah, was in KC over the weekend with the kids. They had a blast playing in the snow. It was the 1st time that my youngest (2 1/2) has seen snow & the 1st time my oldest (4 1/2) remembers seeing that much (took him to CO when he was 7 months old).