January 2025

[Stratton20]

cperk euro has a significant ice storm south of I-10

[don]

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[Brazoriatx979]

One would have to believe if the air column is frozen.All the way through that wouldn't be ice.It would be snow correct

[tireman4]

From Jeff

Another arctic air intrusion increasingly likely late this weekend.

A threat for sub-freezing temperatures (possible hard freezes)

Precipitation possible in the cold air early next week

Cold Air:
Guidance has been coming into slightly better agreement that cold air currently located over northern Siberia will be directed across the north pole and into northwest Canada late this week. Current temperatures in the source region in northern Siberia are in the -40F to -50F range. Strong surface high pressure (1050mb+) develops over NW Canda late this week and slides toward the Montana and North Dakota border region by this weekend with a strong arctic air mass surging down the plains. Initial air mass looks to arrive into Texas on Saturday…reaching our area Saturday afternoon with a significant temperature gradient along the front with temperatures in the 60’s and 70’s ahead of the boundary falling into the 40’s and 50’s behind the boundary. A secondary surge of colder air looks to arrive late Sunday and this will likely drive the freezing line quickly into the area with temperatures falling into the 20’s and 30’s by Monday morning. Given the intensity of the high pressure crossing into the US…may need to trend temperatures down some for late Sunday into Monday…but would like to see a bit better consistency in the guidance before following that trend. Hard freezes (24 or lower for 2 hours or more) look possible over portions of the area by Monday and Tuesday mornings. Overall the setup looks at least a few degrees colder than last week and could be more…it is uncertain at this time range how cold temperatures may get locally. It is also hard to tell if we will recover much during the day…if clouds and precipitation are in place the potential for daytime highs only in the low to mid 30’s will be possible…if it is more sunny highs will reach into the 40’s.

Precipitation:
Once the cold air is in place there is some potential for a mid level shortwave trough to move across the southern portions of the state in the Mon-Tues period with a coastal low forming off the lower TX coast. Overall pattern looks colder and further south than the coastal low last week which will bring a possible threat of frozen/freezing precipitation to the area during this period. Deterministic guidance is widely varying, but the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC ensembles all show at least some potential for a wintery mix of precipitation, a cold rain, or just plain dry for the area during this period. A brief look at forecast temperature profiles support various precipitation types and changes through the period. Since we are still talking 6-7 days out…this is very much a portion of the forecast that will almost certainly see various changes over the next few days.

Monitor forecasts closely through the week and be prepared to take winter weather precautions and winterization efforts by this weekend.

[snowman65]

cperk euro has a significant ice storm south of I-10

I am 6 miles north of I-10. Close call lol

[davidiowx]

One would have to believe if the air column is frozen.All the way through that wouldn't be ice.It would be snow correct

You would think so with this kind of cold, but it will depend on moisture draw from the SW and if that will be warm to fall as rain and freeze on contact. That would be the worst case scenario and one I would prefer to live without.

[don]

The interesting thing is that the EURO a few days ago was already showing this winterstorm but it went away and now it’s back.

[cperk]

cperk euro has a significant ice storm south of I-10

Thanks Stratton20.

[jasons2k]

The interesting thing is that the EURO a few days ago was already showing this winterstorm but it went away and now it’s back.

Short version: it was struggling with the trough evolution and the 500mb charts went whack but it’s finding it again. Expect subsequent runs to start deepening the coastal low going forward.

[jasons2k]

The Ice Man cometh

[jabcwb2]

The Ice Man cometh

Do expect this will be a freeze thaw, freeze thaw, freeze thaw daily scenario?

Thanks!

[Stratton20]

If we get a storm like the GFS/ Euro, we will be below freezing easily all day for at least 2-3 days, maybe 4 , none of that would melt much

[jabcwb2]

If we get a storm like the GFS/ Euro, we will be below freezing easily all day for at least 2-3 days, maybe 4 , none of that would melt much

Thank you so much. That's the answer I was looking for!!

[jasons2k]

I expect the Houston area is below freezing for a few days, yes. The ice storm potential is very concerning to me, NGL. Been thinking this for almost a week.

Pattern recognition wins over modeling every time. I don’t need 1,000 posts in two weeks to get the message across, either

[vci_guy2003]

When would the precip start if this pans out ?

[Cpv17]

I expect the Houston area is below freezing for a few days, yes. The ice storm potential is very concerning to me, NGL. Been thinking this for almost a week.

Pattern recognition wins over modeling every time. I don’t need 1,000 posts in two weeks to get the message across, either

Hope the entire column trends colder. Plenty of time.

[mcheer23]

When would the precip start if this pans out ?

Monday night

[Brazoriatx979]

I just hope the damn power doesn't go out again

[jasons2k]

I expect the Houston area is below freezing for a few days, yes. The ice storm potential is very concerning to me, NGL. Been thinking this for almost a week.

Pattern recognition wins over modeling every time. I don’t need 1,000 posts in two weeks to get the message across, either

Hope the entire column trends colder. Plenty of time.

It eventually does but it’s going to be a fight in the mid-levels with the intensity of the coastal low pulling in warmer air…expect that one to ‘surprise’ some folks when it shows up on the models, too.

[jasons2k]

I just hope the damn power doesn't go out again

I think there will be issues but not because ERCOT didn’t prepare. You can’t fight pine trees coated in ice.