January 2025

[Rip76]

3 hours of good rain here in The Woodlands.

[Cpv17]

If this current weather had supported frozen precip, we’d be in serious trouble. It’s pouring and very gusty in League City. This would’ve been wild if it had been something other than cold rain.

We’d possibly be looking at a once in a lifetime type of winter storm if that were the case. I’ve been thinking about what could have been all week long.

High likelihood the qpf would have been much less if true Arctic air came this week, but it still could have been .5-.75 which would have squeezed out 4-6 under the right circumstances.

What would have been more likely was a deeper snowpack and a slightly less onerous EPO that pushed us down to 28-30 and you have a 1997 ice storm redux all over again with a inch to two of freezing rain and sleet.

If you thought Beryl was bad, oh boy…. LOL

Wanna say in 1899 there was a snowstorm across our area that dumped 1-2’ on us. Not sure if I got the year right or not, but I wonder what kind of setup that was.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

We’d possibly be looking at a once in a lifetime type of winter storm if that were the case. I’ve been thinking about what could have been all week long.

High likelihood the qpf would have been much less if true Arctic air came this week, but it still could have been .5-.75 which would have squeezed out 4-6 under the right circumstances.

What would have been more likely was a deeper snowpack and a slightly less onerous EPO that pushed us down to 28-30 and you have a 1997 ice storm redux all over again with a inch to two of freezing rain and sleet.

If you thought Beryl was bad, oh boy…. LOL

Wanna say in 1899 there was a snowstorm across our area that dumped 1-2’ on us. Not sure if I got the year right or not, but I wonder what kind of setup that was.

It was 1895 or 1899. Coastal low well off the coast and a deep front. Much of north Texas was dry.

[Stratton20]

GFS with that strong Alaskan ridge pumping up at day 8, much colder and a real se texas winter storm lol, fun run, but worth noting it was warmer than its own ensemble so it may be starting to come around now lol

[sambucol]

GFS with that strong Alaskan ridge pumping up at day 8, much colder and a real se texas winter storm lol, fun run, but worth noting it was warmer than its own ensemble so it may be starting to come around now lol

Is this run colder than it’s previous run?

[Stratton20]

sambucol yep

[sambucol]

Got some temperatures on that run to share?

[Stratton20]

sambucol high temps in the low 30’s on that gfs run, lows in the 20’s

[tireman4]

February 14, 1895, more than 20 inches of snow across the area

[Cpv17]

6z GFS is nuts lol

[Cpv17]

We got 2.75” of rain. Not sure I ever recall getting that large of an amount from a single storm system in the heart of winter. Remarkable.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

We got 2.75” of rain. Not sure I ever recall getting that large of an amount from a single storm system in the heart of winter. Remarkable.

Weimar got 12 from one storm last January and Magnolia got 6 in 2014

[Cpv17]

We got 2.75” of rain. Not sure I ever recall getting that large of an amount from a single storm system in the heart of winter. Remarkable.

Weimar got 12 from one storm last January and Magnolia got 6 in 2014

What? That’s insane lol I don’t recall that. Those kinda totals in January seem impossible. We usually just get a quarter to half inch amounts during the winter at my house.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Pretty sure your place got more than 2.75 last January.

As a matter of fact, I have the Weimar paper here detailing that Storm for its 2024 month by month rainfall totals.

[Cpv17]

Pretty sure your place got more than 2.75 last January.

As a matter of fact, I have the Weimar paper here detailing that Storm for its 2024 month by month rainfall totals.

Ima have to go back to and read the January 24 thread.

[tireman4]

943
FXUS64 KHGX 101211
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
611 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 339 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Widespread showers slowly begin to tapper off from northwest to
southeast this morning as the coastal trough pushes off to the east.
By in-large the heavy rainfall threat is over, with steady
stratiform rain expected over the next several hours. Temperatures
early this morning are largely in the mid/upper 30s, though a few
areas north of Huntsville could briefly touch freezing as we reach
peak nocturnal cooling prior to sunrise. Precipitation should
largely be done over these locations by this time, though there
still exists a very narrow window for some wintry precipitation to
occur, with some forecast soundings showing a sub-freezing
isothermal layer from 950mb-850mb. Still, short-range models favor
keeping temperatures and dewpoints above freezing across nearly all
of SE Texas, with the freezing level located above 900ft. Even if
some wintry mix does occur, ground temperatures should be above
freezing, warm enough to prevent any kind of snow/sleet/ice
accumulation.

Northwesterly winds slowly diminish behind the aforementioned
coastal trough, enough to allow the Wind Advisory across the barrier
islands to expire at 6 AM as planned. However, breezy winds and
cloudy skies should continue throughout the day, keeping conditions
cool. Highs will be in the upper 30s/mid 40s, with max apparent
temperatures (wind chill) remaining in the 30s. Winds diminish and
skies clear out tonight/early Saturday as surface high pressure
builds in from the west. Light winds and cooled ground temperatures
may allow for patchy fog to develop over our northern counties. Lows
for Saturday morning are currently forecasted to reach the lower
20s/30s.

Surface high pressure moves overhead and pushes off to the east on
Saturday, allowing southerly flow to return. WAA and clear skies
should bring daytime highs in the upper 40s/mid 50s. Rising moisture
should put lows for Sunday morning in the 30s/lower 40s.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

A weak surface cold front will push into the area on Sunday, with
only a limited chance of associated rainfall concentrated along
and south of the I-10 corridor. While winds sill shift back to the
north in its wake, only a modest cooldown is expected to
materialize as advection remains fairly weak. Highs on Sunday
could perhaps break above the 60 mark at a few locations, with
overnight lows mostly in the 30s.

Cool and otherwise generally benign conditions should prevail for
several days thereafter. The overall synoptic pattern will not be
particularly active, as global models continue to show a
stagnant/retrograding upper low well to our west through mid-week
(in fact, this feature is placed even further west than in
previous days` packages). Furthermore, development of a coastal
trough/low near the TX/Mexico border is less pronounced in
tonight`s suite of global model runs, and as such PoP values have
been trimmed back offshore even further. Still, a sight chance of
rain will continue to linger about 20-60 miles from the coast
through mid-week.

Cool temperatures, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s to
lower 40s, will prevail through Thursday.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 542 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Showers slowly push offshore this morning, with CIGS lowering to
IFR levels early today in the wake of these showers. Gusty
northwesterly winds prevail throughout the day, with CIGS slowly
lifting to MVFR levels this afternoon. Winds slowly decrease
this evening. Later, CIGS scatter out to bring VFR conditions
late tonight/early Saturday morning.

Mostly clear skies and light winds may bring patchy fog further
north at KCLL and KUTS early Saturday morning. With freezing
temperatures possible in these areas, there is a chance that
freezing fog could develop at these sites. Some uncertainty still
remains, but opted to included a mention of FZFG in prob30s.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Gale Conditions will continue to diminish over the next 1-2 hours,
and the Gale Warning will be replaced with a Small Craft Advisory
beginning at 6 AM CST. Gusty winds will nonetheless persist
throughout the day today, with sustained winds reaching as high as
25 knots at times with occasional gusts in excess of 30 knots.
This will be accompanied by seas of up to 8 feet. Winds will shift
to the south and relax on Saturday, before the passage of a cold
front will bring offshore winds and the chance of another Small
Craft Advisory on Sunday night.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 41 26 53 32 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 44 31 52 36 / 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 45 34 51 45 / 30 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ330-350.

Gale Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ335-355-
370-375.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ335-355-
370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Cady

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Pretty sure your place got more than 2.75 last January.

As a matter of fact, I have the Weimar paper here detailing that Storm for its 2024 month by month rainfall totals.

Ima have to go back to and read the January 24 thread.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/5d ... 44880feac0

[redneckweather]

Most models are still showing one heck of a front around the 19th hauling *** down the Lee side of the Rockies and blasting through the Gulf of America. The latest GFS run shows one serious winter storm coming across the state around the 21/22nd dumping some serious snow totals all the way to coastal areas. Looks like 8 inches in North Houston, 10+ once you get up near Conroe and 17” back toward BCS.

[sambucol]

Most models are still showing one heck of a front around the 19th hauling *** down the Lee side of the Rockies and blasting through the Gulf of America. The latest GFS run shows one serious winter storm coming across the state around the 21/22nd dumping some serious snow totals all the way to coastal areas. Looks like 8 inches in North Houston, 10+ once you get up near Conroe and 17” back toward BCS.

It feels like this front is the real deal.

[snowman65]

I'm just not buying it.. until 2 days out.