Excellent.
January 2025
Pow Ponder mentioned this Arctic cold coming down the 20th timeframe. He was right about the Feb 2021 event. A friend sent me his video back then. I had never heard of him, but i heeded what he said before the tv Mets were reporting it. Ever since then, I’ve been subscribed to him. He reports the data. No hype. Strat is on it and so is Pow. Something’s coming for sure and it’s probably very cold.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6066
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
The Eyewall
I wasn't quite sure where to go with this post, but we're a weather blog, entrusted by a lot of people to give "to the point," hype-free information. And we'd be remiss if we didn't at least chime in on what's happening out West. It's tough to watch what has been happening in California without some sort of visceral reaction. This doesn't feel right. It isn't normal. This is our new reality.
What is "normal," anyway?
But it's important to step back and look at what has happened in California and try to understand it and try to make sense of living with risk. California has a climatological normal, apparently. There is a "normal" value of rain or snow or temperature in California. But that normal is really just taking years of extremes and averaging them together. The normal in California is and has always been extreme. A former colleague of mine used to describe "average" by using the analogy of the river being 4 feet deep across "on average." Which is to say, at some points, that river may be 20 feet deep. At others, barely six inches deep. In that sense, California has average or normal weather.
Is a winter fire season "normal" in California? Not really. But it's not unheard of either. The front page of the L.A. Times is below from December 28, 1956. This was a rough wildfire episode in the Santa Monica Mountains.
Front page of the Los Angeles Times, December 28, 1956. (LA Times via newspapers.com)
From that December 28th, 1956 edition, "Wind, humidity, drought, and other factors have combined to make the Santa Monica Mountains fire almost impossible to combat with usual methods, firemen reported yesterday." Further, "existing firebreaks are simply jumped by spot fires which pop up 100 feet and more from the main mass of flame." Does this sound familiar? It's important to understand these things so we don't lose sight of the fact that just because perhaps there were a number of years where something didn't happen, it probably wasn't more than dumb luck. Fires in the dead of winter, while uncommon, can, do, and have historically happened.
It also brings me to a challenging, difficult point to make. Let's be clear: Climate change is real, and it is making fires burn hotter, more intense, and more frequently in these traditionally more typical offseason periods. Would we have seen the type and intensity of fires we see today under the exact same weather conditions in 1956? Probably not. But climate change is not at all the sole "cause" of these fires being as bad as they are. The reality is always nuanced and difficult and messy. We're not going to get into all the reasons here but vegetation management? Kind of important! Political decision-making? Important. Water supply constraints and infrastructure? Important. Population growth and sprawl? Important. Regulations and required environmental reviews? Important.
Yup. When the Forest Service identifies high-risk forests needing prescribed burns, it takes an average of 4.7 YEARS just to get through environmental reviews. For complex projects, it's 7.2 years - longer than many fire cycles. https://t.co/nITtIe9bDd pic.twitter.com/p9i1hmeQne
— Tahra Jirari (@tahrajirari) January 8, 2025
Climate change? Important. It's all important, but to box it in as one issue, neat, tidy, and clean is a misnomer. And as disaster expert Samantha Montano put it "if you minimize the cause to just climate, you prevent us from being able to address the full spectrum of causes." (emphasis mine)
I don’t ‘deny climate change is real’ but I do think people too often use it as a catch-all term that is quite empty and actionless and distracts from many other things going on that can actually be evaluated. It feels like everyone is just pointing at air in the sky and then…
— sigh swoon (@sighswoon) January 8, 2025
All this to say that despite some of the obvious reasons like climate and population growth that have led to fires worsening in California, it remains an extremely complex issue with complex causes that are not singular or simple to solve.
What set this event apart?
So what made this specific event so bad? Let's start with the fundamental problem: Drought.
California has seen a totally split weather regime so far this wet season: Rainy north, bone dry south. (High Plains Regional Climate Center)
This winter has been borderline ridiculous in terms of how split the difference is in regime between northern California and southern California. San Francisco is sitting at 10.39" of rain downtown for the season, compared to a normal of 9.44" to this point. That's about 110 percent of normal. Downtown Los Angeles? 0.16" of rain so far this season, compared to an average of 4.76" typically. That's about 3.3 percent of normal. Southern California has had absolutely nothing this winter so far. Things have dried out, and there have already been two or three decent Santa Ana wind events to help exacerbate the drying out of fuels in this region. In other words, this is about as bad a scenario as you could ask for without any external triggers.
Unfortunately, the external trigger came on Monday and Tuesday in the form of strong Santa Ana winds.
A classic and unusually strong Santa Ana wind event setup across California early this week, peaking on Tuesday evening. (Tropical Tidbits)
Winds gusted as high as 100 mph in the mountains above Altadena (where the Eaton fire impacted), in the 80s above Malibu, and in the 60s in many other areas. These were unusually strong winds by Santa Ana standards, likely exacerbated by what we call mountain waves. As winds from the north hit the east-west oriented San Gabriel Mountains, the winds are forced up over the mountain and then thrust down into the populous valley below. A lot of times, you'll see more of a northeast type wind usher in the Santa Anas, with typical isolated pockets of strong winds. But when you get this level of north push, you can basically create a standing wave over the mountain which just leads to constant wind being pushed down below. While the Santa Anas typically come with strong winds, events like this in these specific areas are somewhat rarer, particularly having such a strong storm as was setup over Baja. And it was exceptionally well forecast ahead of time, which is why dire warnings were issued days in advance of this happening.
As these winds get forced downward, through the high deserts, then down mountains to the coastal plain, the air dries out further as well, which is why you end up with such a perfect recipe for fire danger in these wind events.
Will it get any better?
The short answer is not really. If anything, there will be continued offshore winds and fire risk as additional cold air gets pushed east of the Continental Divide next week. This likely means another period of borderline critical fire danger in SoCal next Monday and Tuesday. Rainfall over the next 10 days from the European operational model looks paltry at best.
Meager, minimal rainfall is expected in Southern California over the next 10 days. (Pivotal Weather)
Winter precipitation patterns can change in a hurry on the West Coast, and obviously the major scarring from these fires means that there will be a major sensitivity to heavy rainfall if and when it does occur again. Be it this year or next year. So, this area will not see dry conditions improve over the next week or two in all likelihood. Let's just hope that forthcoming offshore wind events lack much bite.
I wasn't quite sure where to go with this post, but we're a weather blog, entrusted by a lot of people to give "to the point," hype-free information. And we'd be remiss if we didn't at least chime in on what's happening out West. It's tough to watch what has been happening in California without some sort of visceral reaction. This doesn't feel right. It isn't normal. This is our new reality.
What is "normal," anyway?
But it's important to step back and look at what has happened in California and try to understand it and try to make sense of living with risk. California has a climatological normal, apparently. There is a "normal" value of rain or snow or temperature in California. But that normal is really just taking years of extremes and averaging them together. The normal in California is and has always been extreme. A former colleague of mine used to describe "average" by using the analogy of the river being 4 feet deep across "on average." Which is to say, at some points, that river may be 20 feet deep. At others, barely six inches deep. In that sense, California has average or normal weather.
Is a winter fire season "normal" in California? Not really. But it's not unheard of either. The front page of the L.A. Times is below from December 28, 1956. This was a rough wildfire episode in the Santa Monica Mountains.
Front page of the Los Angeles Times, December 28, 1956. (LA Times via newspapers.com)
From that December 28th, 1956 edition, "Wind, humidity, drought, and other factors have combined to make the Santa Monica Mountains fire almost impossible to combat with usual methods, firemen reported yesterday." Further, "existing firebreaks are simply jumped by spot fires which pop up 100 feet and more from the main mass of flame." Does this sound familiar? It's important to understand these things so we don't lose sight of the fact that just because perhaps there were a number of years where something didn't happen, it probably wasn't more than dumb luck. Fires in the dead of winter, while uncommon, can, do, and have historically happened.
It also brings me to a challenging, difficult point to make. Let's be clear: Climate change is real, and it is making fires burn hotter, more intense, and more frequently in these traditionally more typical offseason periods. Would we have seen the type and intensity of fires we see today under the exact same weather conditions in 1956? Probably not. But climate change is not at all the sole "cause" of these fires being as bad as they are. The reality is always nuanced and difficult and messy. We're not going to get into all the reasons here but vegetation management? Kind of important! Political decision-making? Important. Water supply constraints and infrastructure? Important. Population growth and sprawl? Important. Regulations and required environmental reviews? Important.
Yup. When the Forest Service identifies high-risk forests needing prescribed burns, it takes an average of 4.7 YEARS just to get through environmental reviews. For complex projects, it's 7.2 years - longer than many fire cycles. https://t.co/nITtIe9bDd pic.twitter.com/p9i1hmeQne
— Tahra Jirari (@tahrajirari) January 8, 2025
Climate change? Important. It's all important, but to box it in as one issue, neat, tidy, and clean is a misnomer. And as disaster expert Samantha Montano put it "if you minimize the cause to just climate, you prevent us from being able to address the full spectrum of causes." (emphasis mine)
I don’t ‘deny climate change is real’ but I do think people too often use it as a catch-all term that is quite empty and actionless and distracts from many other things going on that can actually be evaluated. It feels like everyone is just pointing at air in the sky and then…
— sigh swoon (@sighswoon) January 8, 2025
All this to say that despite some of the obvious reasons like climate and population growth that have led to fires worsening in California, it remains an extremely complex issue with complex causes that are not singular or simple to solve.
What set this event apart?
So what made this specific event so bad? Let's start with the fundamental problem: Drought.
California has seen a totally split weather regime so far this wet season: Rainy north, bone dry south. (High Plains Regional Climate Center)
This winter has been borderline ridiculous in terms of how split the difference is in regime between northern California and southern California. San Francisco is sitting at 10.39" of rain downtown for the season, compared to a normal of 9.44" to this point. That's about 110 percent of normal. Downtown Los Angeles? 0.16" of rain so far this season, compared to an average of 4.76" typically. That's about 3.3 percent of normal. Southern California has had absolutely nothing this winter so far. Things have dried out, and there have already been two or three decent Santa Ana wind events to help exacerbate the drying out of fuels in this region. In other words, this is about as bad a scenario as you could ask for without any external triggers.
Unfortunately, the external trigger came on Monday and Tuesday in the form of strong Santa Ana winds.
A classic and unusually strong Santa Ana wind event setup across California early this week, peaking on Tuesday evening. (Tropical Tidbits)
Winds gusted as high as 100 mph in the mountains above Altadena (where the Eaton fire impacted), in the 80s above Malibu, and in the 60s in many other areas. These were unusually strong winds by Santa Ana standards, likely exacerbated by what we call mountain waves. As winds from the north hit the east-west oriented San Gabriel Mountains, the winds are forced up over the mountain and then thrust down into the populous valley below. A lot of times, you'll see more of a northeast type wind usher in the Santa Anas, with typical isolated pockets of strong winds. But when you get this level of north push, you can basically create a standing wave over the mountain which just leads to constant wind being pushed down below. While the Santa Anas typically come with strong winds, events like this in these specific areas are somewhat rarer, particularly having such a strong storm as was setup over Baja. And it was exceptionally well forecast ahead of time, which is why dire warnings were issued days in advance of this happening.
As these winds get forced downward, through the high deserts, then down mountains to the coastal plain, the air dries out further as well, which is why you end up with such a perfect recipe for fire danger in these wind events.
Will it get any better?
The short answer is not really. If anything, there will be continued offshore winds and fire risk as additional cold air gets pushed east of the Continental Divide next week. This likely means another period of borderline critical fire danger in SoCal next Monday and Tuesday. Rainfall over the next 10 days from the European operational model looks paltry at best.
Meager, minimal rainfall is expected in Southern California over the next 10 days. (Pivotal Weather)
Winter precipitation patterns can change in a hurry on the West Coast, and obviously the major scarring from these fires means that there will be a major sensitivity to heavy rainfall if and when it does occur again. Be it this year or next year. So, this area will not see dry conditions improve over the next week or two in all likelihood. Let's just hope that forthcoming offshore wind events lack much bite.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6066
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
144
FXUS64 KHGX 092119
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
319 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
The coastal low is currently skirting the coastline just to our
south, and as it moves northward along our coastline it will
continue to bring showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area.
Rain will increase in coverage through the afternoon and into the
overnight hours as the coastal low reaches our coastline and
interacts with the abundant moisture available. Rainfall totals
still looking to be around 1-3" inland and around 2-4" for coastal
counties and the Barrier Islands. Isolated higher amounts will be
possible where bands of heavier rain set up, or where pockets of
moderate to heavy rainfall train over the same area. WPC still has
locations along and south/east of a line extending from
southeastern Wharton County, to the City of Houston, and into
southern Liberty County in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for
Excessive Rainfall. Remember to Turn Around, Don`t Drown if you
encounter flooded roadways and drive safe!
Radar showing light rain occuring at the moment; however, Hi-Res
models show rainfall intensity increasing over portions of SE Texas
as that aforementioned coastal low inches closer to the Upper Texas
Coastline later this afternoon into the overnight hours. Some
locations in the far northern part of the CWA could see a brief
wintry mix; however, with surfaces having been well above freezing,
not expecting any accumulations or impacts. Rain should taper off
around mid to late morning Friday, with a drier air mass moving in
from behind.
Temperatures tonight will hover around or just above the freezing
mark north of I-10. South of I-10 expect lows to be in the upper 30s
to low 40s. While locations north of I-10 may dip to or below
freezing, ground temperatures should be warm enough and winds should
be elevated enough to inhibit any freezing on roadways.
Highs on Friday will top out in the 40s to near 50 across the area.
Lows on Friday night into Saturday morning will be on the chilly
side again with most of the area at or below freezing. Wind chills
should be just above the Cold Weather Advisory criteria; however,
will need to monitor to see if this trends any colder.
In addition to the potential for heavy downpours, winds will also be
breezy to gusty through tomorrow morning. A Wind Advisory is in
effect through Friday morning for the Barrier Islands. Further
inland, gusts to around 25-30 mph will be possible.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
High pressure overhead on Saturday will lead to mostly sunny
conditions with highs in the low to mid 50s, and overnight lows
Saturday night in the low 30s north of the Houston Metro and mid to
upper 30s and low 40s along and south of the I-10 corridor. That
high pressure will be quickly moving to the east and will likely be
over the East Coast by Sunday afternoon. This will lead to a
southeasterly wind shift across SE Texas leading to increasing
temperatures and moisture. High temperatures on Sunday will be in
the mid 50s to low 60s, which is the closest its been to seasonal
since January 5th. There will be a slight chance of some coastal
light coastal showers Sunday afternoon. Despite the warmer daytime
temperatures, a weak cold front will slide through the area late
Sunday bringing overnight lows back down into the mid 30s to low 40s
(subfreezing temperatures are possible for the Piney Woods region).
Cool temperatures persist through the first half of next week as
surface high pressure remains in place with high temperatures in the
50s and lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. There is a coastal low
developing off of South Texas late Monday into Tuesday that will
attempt to move northwards by Wednesday. However that high pressure
over northern Texas is looking to block the majority of the moisture
associated with that coastal low away from SE Texas. However, if
this high pressure ends up weaker/situated further north, then we
may expect some showers creeping into our are on Wednesday.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the day,
spreading in coverage as the afternoon progresses. E/NE winds will
increase to around 10-20 kts with gusts to 20-35 kts (highest
gusts expected closer to the coast). A strengthening LLJ will
result in vertical wind shear from KCXO south, bringing SE/E winds
of 40-50 kts at around 2000 ft. Expect shear to diminish over the
course of the evening. Rainfall will continue during the overnight
hours, tapering off during the morning hours Friday. IFR/LIFR CIGs
are expected this afternoon through the end of the period. IAH may
improve to MVFR levels past the 18Z period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
A strengthening coastal low is expected to move through the western
Gulf through tonight bringing hazardous marine conditions. Scattered
to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
through tonight. Isolated, brief waterspouts will be possible with
any strong storms that develop. Moderate to strong easterly winds
are expected through this evening, becoming northwesterly late
tonight into Friday morning as the coastal low moves away from the
region. The winds this evening/tonight will be sustained 20-30kt
with gusts to 35-40kt likely and isolated higher gusts possible.
Wave heights will climb to 10-14ft in the coastal waters with very
rough waters expected in Galveston Bay. The Gale Warning that has
been in effect for most of the Gulf waters (excluding the near shore
waters off of Matagorda Bay) has been expanded to include Galveston
Bay. While the northern parts of Galveston Bay/the ship channel will
likely only see occasional wind gusts to Gale-force, the southern
half of Galveston Bay will likely see frequent gusts to gale this
evening through late tonight. Small Craft Advisories remain in
effect for Matagorda Bay and the waters near Matagorda Bay. These
products are in effect through 6am Friday, however northwesterly
winds of 20-25kt will likely persist through Friday night resulting
in the need for Small Craft Advisories for the Gulf Waters.
The strong easterly flow this afternoon/evening will lead to
elevated high tides between 3-4ft above MLLW in and around Galveston
Bay and the Bolivar Peninsula. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect
until 3am for Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula. There will be
an abrupt change from higher than normal tides to lower than normal
tides as the coastal low pulls away from the region. Low tide Friday
morning will be around 0.5 ft below MLLW and then around 0.75 to 1
ft below MLLW during low tide Saturday morning, so a Low Water
Advisory may be needed.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 34 43 27 51 / 100 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 36 45 32 51 / 100 40 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 41 48 36 51 / 100 70 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for TXZ436>439.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for TXZ437>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST Friday for GMZ330-350.
Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ335-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Fowler
FXUS64 KHGX 092119
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
319 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
The coastal low is currently skirting the coastline just to our
south, and as it moves northward along our coastline it will
continue to bring showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area.
Rain will increase in coverage through the afternoon and into the
overnight hours as the coastal low reaches our coastline and
interacts with the abundant moisture available. Rainfall totals
still looking to be around 1-3" inland and around 2-4" for coastal
counties and the Barrier Islands. Isolated higher amounts will be
possible where bands of heavier rain set up, or where pockets of
moderate to heavy rainfall train over the same area. WPC still has
locations along and south/east of a line extending from
southeastern Wharton County, to the City of Houston, and into
southern Liberty County in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for
Excessive Rainfall. Remember to Turn Around, Don`t Drown if you
encounter flooded roadways and drive safe!
Radar showing light rain occuring at the moment; however, Hi-Res
models show rainfall intensity increasing over portions of SE Texas
as that aforementioned coastal low inches closer to the Upper Texas
Coastline later this afternoon into the overnight hours. Some
locations in the far northern part of the CWA could see a brief
wintry mix; however, with surfaces having been well above freezing,
not expecting any accumulations or impacts. Rain should taper off
around mid to late morning Friday, with a drier air mass moving in
from behind.
Temperatures tonight will hover around or just above the freezing
mark north of I-10. South of I-10 expect lows to be in the upper 30s
to low 40s. While locations north of I-10 may dip to or below
freezing, ground temperatures should be warm enough and winds should
be elevated enough to inhibit any freezing on roadways.
Highs on Friday will top out in the 40s to near 50 across the area.
Lows on Friday night into Saturday morning will be on the chilly
side again with most of the area at or below freezing. Wind chills
should be just above the Cold Weather Advisory criteria; however,
will need to monitor to see if this trends any colder.
In addition to the potential for heavy downpours, winds will also be
breezy to gusty through tomorrow morning. A Wind Advisory is in
effect through Friday morning for the Barrier Islands. Further
inland, gusts to around 25-30 mph will be possible.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
High pressure overhead on Saturday will lead to mostly sunny
conditions with highs in the low to mid 50s, and overnight lows
Saturday night in the low 30s north of the Houston Metro and mid to
upper 30s and low 40s along and south of the I-10 corridor. That
high pressure will be quickly moving to the east and will likely be
over the East Coast by Sunday afternoon. This will lead to a
southeasterly wind shift across SE Texas leading to increasing
temperatures and moisture. High temperatures on Sunday will be in
the mid 50s to low 60s, which is the closest its been to seasonal
since January 5th. There will be a slight chance of some coastal
light coastal showers Sunday afternoon. Despite the warmer daytime
temperatures, a weak cold front will slide through the area late
Sunday bringing overnight lows back down into the mid 30s to low 40s
(subfreezing temperatures are possible for the Piney Woods region).
Cool temperatures persist through the first half of next week as
surface high pressure remains in place with high temperatures in the
50s and lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. There is a coastal low
developing off of South Texas late Monday into Tuesday that will
attempt to move northwards by Wednesday. However that high pressure
over northern Texas is looking to block the majority of the moisture
associated with that coastal low away from SE Texas. However, if
this high pressure ends up weaker/situated further north, then we
may expect some showers creeping into our are on Wednesday.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the day,
spreading in coverage as the afternoon progresses. E/NE winds will
increase to around 10-20 kts with gusts to 20-35 kts (highest
gusts expected closer to the coast). A strengthening LLJ will
result in vertical wind shear from KCXO south, bringing SE/E winds
of 40-50 kts at around 2000 ft. Expect shear to diminish over the
course of the evening. Rainfall will continue during the overnight
hours, tapering off during the morning hours Friday. IFR/LIFR CIGs
are expected this afternoon through the end of the period. IAH may
improve to MVFR levels past the 18Z period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025
A strengthening coastal low is expected to move through the western
Gulf through tonight bringing hazardous marine conditions. Scattered
to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
through tonight. Isolated, brief waterspouts will be possible with
any strong storms that develop. Moderate to strong easterly winds
are expected through this evening, becoming northwesterly late
tonight into Friday morning as the coastal low moves away from the
region. The winds this evening/tonight will be sustained 20-30kt
with gusts to 35-40kt likely and isolated higher gusts possible.
Wave heights will climb to 10-14ft in the coastal waters with very
rough waters expected in Galveston Bay. The Gale Warning that has
been in effect for most of the Gulf waters (excluding the near shore
waters off of Matagorda Bay) has been expanded to include Galveston
Bay. While the northern parts of Galveston Bay/the ship channel will
likely only see occasional wind gusts to Gale-force, the southern
half of Galveston Bay will likely see frequent gusts to gale this
evening through late tonight. Small Craft Advisories remain in
effect for Matagorda Bay and the waters near Matagorda Bay. These
products are in effect through 6am Friday, however northwesterly
winds of 20-25kt will likely persist through Friday night resulting
in the need for Small Craft Advisories for the Gulf Waters.
The strong easterly flow this afternoon/evening will lead to
elevated high tides between 3-4ft above MLLW in and around Galveston
Bay and the Bolivar Peninsula. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect
until 3am for Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula. There will be
an abrupt change from higher than normal tides to lower than normal
tides as the coastal low pulls away from the region. Low tide Friday
morning will be around 0.5 ft below MLLW and then around 0.75 to 1
ft below MLLW during low tide Saturday morning, so a Low Water
Advisory may be needed.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 34 43 27 51 / 100 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 36 45 32 51 / 100 40 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 41 48 36 51 / 100 70 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for TXZ436>439.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for TXZ437>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST Friday for GMZ330-350.
Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ335-355-370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Fowler
Told y’all this was an intense storm.
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0001
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
454 PM EST Thu Jan 09 2025
Areas affected...Upper Texas Coast
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 092200Z - 100400Z
SUMMARY...Blossoming convection may briefly train along portions of the Upper Texas coast this evening. Rainfall rates around 1.5"/hr are possible in urbanized communities and could lead to localized flash flooding in poor drainage areas.
DISCUSSION...Deepening low pressure along the Texas coast is located beneath the divergent right-entrance region of a robust ~160kt 250mb jet streak over the Middle Mississippi River Valley this afternoon. Farther west, an anomalous upper trough over northern Mexico contains 500mb heights as low as the 1st climatological percentile according the NAEFS. Onshore flow will increase at low levels this evening as high pressure over the Ohio Valley and the deepening surface low along the Texas Coast tighten the surface pressure gradient. In fact, southerly 850mb winds of 40-50kts around 00Z this evening are above the 99.5 climatological percentile per NAEFS. These atmospheric parameters are playing a role in the development of an IVT surpassing 1,000 kg/m/s, which are values above the maximum observed IVT levels in the CFSR database per NAEFS.
As the low-level wind field strengthens, surface-925mb FGEN will also strengthen as low-level winds draw PWs up to 1.75" ahead of the storm. Rainfall rates will increase in intensity this evening to the north of the warm front, as well as the western flank of the storm's circulation. Area averaged HRRR soundings from the Houston metroplex to Galveston show >98% saturated soundings from the surface to 300mb and warm cloud layers as deep as 12,000ft. This supports favorable warm rainfall processes, but the one big ingredient that is lacking is instability. Moisture advection and synoptic-to-mesoscale forcing alone would support hourly rainfall rates of 1"/hr rainfall rates, but the HRRR shows as much as 250 J/kg of MUCAPE present along the Upper Texas coast. It is here where hourly rainfall rates may approach 1.5"/hr with low chances (5-10% via the 12Z HREF) for rainfall rates of >2"/hr.
NASA SPoRT-LIS in the sfc-10cm and sfc-40cm soil depths are running drier than normal with some locations in moderate drought according to the latest drought monitor. This atmospheric setup is one where most of the observed rainfall will be more beneficial than harmful. That said, locally excessive rainfall rates may lead to localized flash flooding tonight in areas that feature a greater concentration of non-permeable surfaces. Any minor flooding or ponding may also be harder to identify for motorists with the heaviest rainfall rates arriving after sundown.
Mullinax
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0001
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
454 PM EST Thu Jan 09 2025
Areas affected...Upper Texas Coast
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 092200Z - 100400Z
SUMMARY...Blossoming convection may briefly train along portions of the Upper Texas coast this evening. Rainfall rates around 1.5"/hr are possible in urbanized communities and could lead to localized flash flooding in poor drainage areas.
DISCUSSION...Deepening low pressure along the Texas coast is located beneath the divergent right-entrance region of a robust ~160kt 250mb jet streak over the Middle Mississippi River Valley this afternoon. Farther west, an anomalous upper trough over northern Mexico contains 500mb heights as low as the 1st climatological percentile according the NAEFS. Onshore flow will increase at low levels this evening as high pressure over the Ohio Valley and the deepening surface low along the Texas Coast tighten the surface pressure gradient. In fact, southerly 850mb winds of 40-50kts around 00Z this evening are above the 99.5 climatological percentile per NAEFS. These atmospheric parameters are playing a role in the development of an IVT surpassing 1,000 kg/m/s, which are values above the maximum observed IVT levels in the CFSR database per NAEFS.
As the low-level wind field strengthens, surface-925mb FGEN will also strengthen as low-level winds draw PWs up to 1.75" ahead of the storm. Rainfall rates will increase in intensity this evening to the north of the warm front, as well as the western flank of the storm's circulation. Area averaged HRRR soundings from the Houston metroplex to Galveston show >98% saturated soundings from the surface to 300mb and warm cloud layers as deep as 12,000ft. This supports favorable warm rainfall processes, but the one big ingredient that is lacking is instability. Moisture advection and synoptic-to-mesoscale forcing alone would support hourly rainfall rates of 1"/hr rainfall rates, but the HRRR shows as much as 250 J/kg of MUCAPE present along the Upper Texas coast. It is here where hourly rainfall rates may approach 1.5"/hr with low chances (5-10% via the 12Z HREF) for rainfall rates of >2"/hr.
NASA SPoRT-LIS in the sfc-10cm and sfc-40cm soil depths are running drier than normal with some locations in moderate drought according to the latest drought monitor. This atmospheric setup is one where most of the observed rainfall will be more beneficial than harmful. That said, locally excessive rainfall rates may lead to localized flash flooding tonight in areas that feature a greater concentration of non-permeable surfaces. Any minor flooding or ponding may also be harder to identify for motorists with the heaviest rainfall rates arriving after sundown.
Mullinax
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2617
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- Location: Weimar, TX
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Radar telling me sleet mixing in in Bastrop and Fayette counties. Fayette borders me.
Team #NeverSummer
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It’s 45 in Freeport and 60 just down the road in Sargent.
Weather apps are off on temps right now. I have one app that says it’s 46° & another that says it’s 44° here when the actual temp is 41°.
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Brazoriatx979
- Posts: 346
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- Location: Angleton
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Is weather.gov pretty accurate with forecast temps? It has a low of 31 in rosharon friday night. If that's true I have to blow the lines at work again tomorrow and that's a pain in the *** if it's not actually going to get that low and for that long. I have 3 apps that say different temps so trying to figure out which one will be right
Pretty hard 33 degree rain here. Would have been a royal mess if it were only a couple degrees colder.
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Brazoriatx979
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They are now complaining om 2k about no "main event"?? Lol Jesus christ 
you ppl are greedy lol
you ppl are greedy lolI hope they get skipped the rest of the season on all sides. LOLBrazoriatx979 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 7:00 pm They are now complaining om 2k about no "main event"?? Lol Jesus christ
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2617
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
I’m at 35.6 with some pingers
Team #NeverSummer
My Dad is Allen is reporting 32 degrees with 3-4” of snow.
If this current weather had supported frozen precip, we’d be in serious trouble. It’s pouring and very gusty in League City. This would’ve been wild if it had been something other than cold rain.
Been here for years since Katrina.
We’d possibly be looking at a once in a lifetime type of winter storm if that were the case. I’ve been thinking about what could have been all week long.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5377
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
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Cpv17 well look like we may get an opportunity to turn that what could have been into what maybe around the 20th lol , much colder air will be coming down, if we have a system that can time up with the cold air late month, wed be in business, considering it looks like the ensembles show this airmass originating from siberia
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2617
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- Location: Weimar, TX
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High likelihood the qpf would have been much less if true Arctic air came this week, but it still could have been .5-.75 which would have squeezed out 4-6 under the right circumstances.
What would have been more likely was a deeper snowpack and a slightly less onerous EPO that pushed us down to 28-30 and you have a 1997 ice storm redux all over again with a inch to two of freezing rain and sleet.
If you thought Beryl was bad, oh boy…. LOL
Team #NeverSummer