January 2025

[DoctorMu]

LOL agreed it’s y’all turn next. We already have picked up about an inch now and we have hours of snow to go still.

Nice! Congrats. The warm, Pacific tongue took over in CLL and we warmed from 30°F to 40°F overnight. It hasn't rained, and I'm fine with that.

[Cromagnum]

40F in downtown Austin right now. Local Mets keep acting like wet bulbing is going to get us to freezing. I dont believe it. Dew point is 22F right now, so that only gets us to 34-35

[Cpv17]

It’s warmed up a lot more today than what I was expecting.

[Cpv17]

https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/187739903 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

Hoping this isn’t progressive.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 EPS and GEPS keep the cold locked in, both are especially bullish with the cold, GEFS is cold but more progressive, but that being said the GEFS/ GFS does have a well known problem for being too progressive with upper air patterns

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 EPS and GEPS keep the cold locked in, both are especially bullish with the cold, GEFS is cold but more progressive, but that being said the GEFS/ GFS does have a well known problem for being too progressive with upper air patterns

Yeah, the GFS does have a progressive bias, for sure. It’s starting to get more talk now on social media as well. Good to see.

[Stratton20]

Folks this is a classic setup for a deep south winter storm, and a setup for the coldest air to go all the way down into mexico, EPS is all in

[Cpv17]

Folks this is a classic setup for a deep south winter storm, and a setup for the coldest air to go all the way down into mexico, EPS is all in

It’s a good signal. Would just like for the ridge over Alaska to go more poleward. My only complaint.

[Stormlover2020]

I don’t trust ensembles one bit.

[Stratton20]

Stormlover2020 what? Ensembles are the most useful tool when trying to identify trends and upper air patterns, there is very good confidence that cold air is going to be spilling into the central US, obviously the magnitude of the cold and if their will be a system in play , those details still need to be worked out, but the agreement in the ensembles is extremely good, this pattern is likely going to happen, the CPC even put out a risk of hazardous temperatures across the central US, this pattern has been consistent on ensembles for the last week

[Brazoriatx979]

We already have a deep south winter storm..it's just in north texas lol

[Cpv17]

Stormlover2020 what? Ensembles are the most useful tool when trying to identify trends and upper air patterns, there is very good confidence that cold air is going to be spilling into the central US, obviously the magnitude of the cold and if their will be a system in play , those details still need to be worked out, but the agreement in the ensembles is extremely good, this pattern is likely going to happen, the CPC even put out a risk of hazardous temperatures across the central US, this pattern has been consistent on ensembles for the last week

Yep, ensembles are the way to go when you’re dealing with anything more than 5 days out, much less 10+ days out.

[Stormlover2020]

Trusting a model 11-13 days out isn’t trustworthy.

[Stratton20]

Again ensembles are used for identifying patterns even beyond 10 days out, cold air is going to get dumped into the central USc how cold/ wintry precipitation are obviously big question marks, but ensembles are the way to go

[sambucol]

Again ensembles are used for identifying patterns even beyond 10 days out, cold air is going to get dumped into the central USc how cold/ wintry precipitation are obviously big question marks, but ensembles are the way to go

This model is 10 days out. Correct Stratton?

[redneckweather]

Again ensembles are used for identifying patterns even beyond 10 days out, cold air is going to get dumped into the central USc how cold/ wintry precipitation are obviously big question marks, but ensembles are the way to go

This model is 10 days out. Correct Stratton?

January 19-20. Most models are showing a big front around this time.

[Stratton20]

Thats correct sambucol , while we still have a lot of question marks up in the air, their is high confidence of a cold dump of air coming from siberia , all i can say with confidence is its likely going to get alot colder than what we are currently seeing now

[Stratton20]

The Siberian express train is coming!

[sambucol]

Sounds great. Hoping for snow. Any ballpark idea of possible temps in SETX for this one?

[Cpv17]

Sounds great. Hoping for snow.

The CPC has all of southeast Texas with a good chance for above normal precipitation during this timeframe as well.