Hurricane Tomas Accelerating NNE From the Bahamas

[srainhoutx]

Tomas looks like shear is affecting it and I am beginning to wonder if it is still a Hurricane...the Euro model may have been right all along...

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 311444
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2010

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TOMAS HAS GENERALLY DECREASED DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE LESS
ORGANIZED. IN ADDITION...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES NO LONGER SHOW AN
EYE. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 80
KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE NEXT AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE
INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN
PLACE TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS. SOME OF THE MODELS EVEN SHOW A SOUTH
OF WEST MOTION DURING THAT TIME. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO ERODE. TOMAS IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN 4 TO 5 DAYS AS IT FEELS THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE LAST CYCLE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

ALTHOUGH TOMAS LIES OVER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AS SHOWN BY
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...SEVERAL OF THE RELIABLE
MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL...SHOW THE VORTEX
TILTING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN THE
WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE IN THOSE MODELS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD THROUGH 48
HOURS BUT REMAINS HIGHER THAN ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DURING
THAT TIME. A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED
DURING THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY
STRENGTHENING.

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 14.0N 63.7W 80 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 14.5N 65.1W 75 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 14.9N 67.2W 75 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 15.0N 69.1W 75 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 15.0N 70.6W 75 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 15.0N 72.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 15.5N 73.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 73.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

[srainhoutx]

Still weakening...

[srainhoutx]

Tomas is much weaker now...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 17:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 17:29:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°13'N 64°15'W (14.2167N 64.25W)
B. Center Fix Location: 314 miles (505 km) to the SSE (158°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,059m (10,036ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 47° at 48kts (From the NE at ~ 55.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (323°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the southeast to the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:22:50Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SFC CNTR BEARING 280 AT 04 NM FROM FL CNTR

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 19:21Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 18:58:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°18'N 64°34'W (14.3N 64.5667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 301 miles (485 km) to the SSE (161°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,391m (4,564ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the ENE (72°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 101° at 65kts (From between the E and ESE at ~ 74.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 54 nautical miles (62 statute miles) to the NE (55°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 995mb (29.38 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,513m (4,964ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:39:20Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SFC CNTR BEARING 180 AT APPROX 2 NM FROM FL CNTR
EYEWALL DISSIPATED.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 312031
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM AST SUN OCT 31 2010

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TOMAS HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE MORE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM
850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT...AN SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 64
KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 994 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT
MAINTAINING TOMAS AS A HURRICANE WITH AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 65
KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN
BEFORE...280/10. TOMAS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN DUE
TO A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AS TO WHERE AND WHEN THE NORTHWARD TURN OCCURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO
4 DAYS...AND THEN LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE LAST TRACK TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...ECMWF...AND
UKMET MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST POINTS ARE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.

SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE AND IS ONCE AGAIN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...BRINGING TOMAS
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN WHILE TOMAS REMAINS OVER
FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS. ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS RESPOND
AND SHOW THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY RANGE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 14.4N 64.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 14.7N 66.4W 60 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 15.0N 68.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 69.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 15.0N 71.3W 60 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 15.3N 72.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 16.0N 73.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 72.5W 90 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

[Ptarmigan]

Tomas has weakened greatly due to windshear. However, I think it has a chance of re-strengthening. Haiti should really keep an eye on Tomas.

[srainhoutx]

Center is totally exposed now on Tomas...

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 010841
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 13...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM AST MON NOV 01 2010

CORRECTED MOTION TO 260/12

WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LOWER- AND MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...
CONTINUES TO IMPACT TOMAS. CONSEQUENTLY THE CYCLONE REMAINS HIGHLY
DECOUPLED AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED MORE THAN 100 N MI
WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. SFMR OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY HAS DECREASED
TO NEAR 45 KT. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS 20 TO 25 KT OF
SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE AFFECTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR ABOUT
ANOTHER 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD RELAX WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TOMAS TO REGAIN
STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO
AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE LGEM GUIDANCE AND BELOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GFDL MODEL FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG TOMAS WILL GET IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION IS JUST
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 260/12. A WEAKENING LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM SHOULD PRODUCE A
GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION WITH DECELERATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
OR SO. IN 72 TO 96 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A LARGE
AMPLITUDE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD TURN TOMAS NORTHWARD
AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE
EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MAINLY DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT
IN RECENT FIXES. AS NOTED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE TRACK MODELS ON THE GENERAL TRAJECTORY OF TOMAS DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT THERE ARE STILL
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED FORWARD SPEEDS. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTIES ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK...PARTICULARLY THE TIMING OF THE 4 AND 5 DAY POINTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 13.8N 67.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 14.1N 69.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 14.3N 71.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 14.4N 72.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 14.6N 73.9W 45 KT
72HR VT 04/0600Z 15.5N 74.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 05/0600Z 17.5N 74.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 06/0600Z 21.5N 71.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 011438
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST MON NOV 01 2010

TOMAS IS A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
DISPLACED MORE THAN 100 MILES TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY
FORMED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO FALL...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...AND THE LATEST
12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/12. A GENERAL WESTWARD
HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS LOW OR TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. AS THIS
OCCURS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL
WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND THEN CAUSE TOMAS TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE LATEST TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...MAINLY DUE TO THE
RECENT SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. ALTHOUGH THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...IT ENDS UP ON THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR COULD CAUSE
A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND THE OTHER ATMOSPHERIC
AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING. ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS TOMAS RE-INTENSIFYING...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48
HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT THEME. THE NEW WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 13.6N 68.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 13.7N 70.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 13.8N 72.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 14.0N 73.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 14.3N 74.2W 45 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 15.2N 74.8W 55 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 17.5N 74.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 21.5N 71.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Ptarmigan]

I see the naked swirl which is now flaring up. I expect to see watches and warnings for Haiti and Dominican Republic soon. It is going to be a big problem for them.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 020234
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT MON NOV 01 2010

THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE STRUCTURE OF TOMAS OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAD DIMINISHED AT ONE
POINT THIS EVENING...BUT A LINEAR BAND HAS RECENTLY RE-DEVELOPED
ABOUT 60-90 N MI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SATELLITE
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/3.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.6/2.7 FROM THE OBJECTIVE
ADT. ALTHOUGH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
CYCLONE...IT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN 24-36 HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...AND TOMAS WILL BE MOVING OVER A REGION OF INCREASED
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. ALL THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT TOMAS SHOULD
RE-STRENGTHEN...AND THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN BY DAY 3. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE NEW INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND
NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED ON THIS ADVISORY.

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT TOMAS HAS CEASED MOVING
SOUTH OF DUE WEST AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 270/10. TRACK
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TOMAS...IN ITS WEAKENED STATE...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS OR SO. ONCE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN...THE DEEPER
VORTEX SHOULD BE STEERED NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. SINCE THE HWRF AND GFDN APPEAR TO BE NORTHERN OUTLIERS AND
THE NOGAPS DOES NOT EVEN PULL TOMAS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...
GFDL...AND UKMET. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE
WEST ON THIS CYCLE...MAINLY IN THE DAY 2 AND 3 TIME FRAME...AND THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 13.5N 70.8W 40 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 13.7N 72.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 13.9N 73.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 14.2N 74.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 14.6N 75.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 16.0N 75.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 18.5N 73.5W 80 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/0000Z 21.0N 70.5W 70 KT...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[srainhoutx]

Deadly Tomas has gain strength over night...14 dead in St Lucia...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-11672819

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 021452
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010

TOMAS HAS CERTAINLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND INCREASED BANDING SEEN IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA. HOWEVER...THE STORM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
REPORTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 45 KT AROUND 0800 UTC. THEREFORE...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT THAT VALUE...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 AND 3.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...
RESPECTIVELY. THE NEXT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE TOMAS THIS AFTERNOON.

WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO RELAX AND THE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS TO BE MOISTENING. THESE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...COMBINED
WITH HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...FAVOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. IN
FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX GIVES A 48 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS NOW AT OR JUST ABOVE THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. AFTER A FEW DAYS...LAND INTERACTION...DRIER AIR...AND
SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...270/9.
A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS A STRONG
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...
TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 48
HOURS IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL
NOT COMPLETELY CAPTURE TOMAS AND THERE REMAINS A LARGE DISAGREEMENT
IN THE FUTURE POSITION OF THE CYCLONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IS NEAR A
CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL... UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...IT APPEARS
THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 13.5N 72.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 73.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.1N 75.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 14.6N 75.8W 70 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 15.2N 76.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 17.2N 74.9W 90 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 20.0N 72.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 22.5N 69.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

[srainhoutx]

Tomas has remained weak and continues W bound and now the official track is shifted W as well...

000
WTNT41 KNHC 022047
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TOMAS FOUND THE
STORM WEAKER THAN IT WAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS
SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT. THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OF TOMAS HAS ALSO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.

THE CONTINUED WEAKENING...OR AT LEAST LACK OF STRENGTHENING...OF
TOMAS IS LIKELY DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...SOME WESTERLY
SHEAR...AND PERHAPS THE PROXIMITY TO SOUTH AMERICA.
HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION STILL SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL
INTENSITY...BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT TOMAS CONTINUES WESTWARD
AT AROUND 12 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM
EARLIER. A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
TOMAS IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IN THE 2 TO 4 DAY PERIOD. BY DAY 5...MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FLATTENING AND LEAVING TOMAS BEHIND.
THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...IT APPEARS
THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 13.5N 74.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 13.8N 75.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 14.2N 76.6W 50 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 14.7N 77.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 15.3N 76.7W 70 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 18.1N 74.8W 85 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 21.0N 72.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 22.5N 70.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 022340
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010

...TOMAS SLOWS DOWN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 75.0W
ABOUT 395 MI...665 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 031146
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

...DISORGANIZED TOMAS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 75.8W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 031449
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

TOMAS IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DATA FROM THE NOAA
G-IV JET INDICATE THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME PART OF AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT INCLUDES AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER JUST
NORTH OF PANAMA. AS A RESULT...THE CIRCULATION OF TOMAS HAS BEEN
LOSING DEFINITION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE WHETHER
TOMAS STILL HAS ENOUGH CIRCULATION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...AND BASED ON THIS AND THE AIRCRAFT DATA
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/5. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK OR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THE FIRST 72 -96 HR
OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES SHOULD CAUSE TOMAS TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HR...WITH A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION CONTINUING
THROUGH 72-96 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES
DIVERGENT. THE GFDL STALLS THE CYCLONE JUST WEST OF HAITI. THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS FORECAST TOMAS TO SHEAR OFF WITH THE REMNANT
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD. FINALLY...THE GFS AND
ECMWF CALL FOR A CONTINUED EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FROM
96-120 HR AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. OVERALL...THE
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. FIRST...THE CYCLONE NEEDS TO
SURVIVE ITS CURRENT STATE OF DISORGANIZATION. IF THAT OCCURS...
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR OR SO IF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CAN CONSOLIDATE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
ASSUMES BOTH OF THESE THINGS WILL HAPPEN...AND THUS CALLS FOR SLOW
STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS
STILL CALL FOR TOMAS TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO DUE TO CURRENT
TRENDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO BUT
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...
FLOODING... AND POTENTIAL MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 14.1N 75.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 14.5N 76.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 15.5N 76.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 16.8N 75.7W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 18.1N 74.7W 55 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 21.0N 72.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 07/1200Z 23.0N 71.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 08/1200Z 23.5N 69.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 031753
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
200 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

...CENTER OF TOMAS RE-FORMING FARTHER NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 75.0W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 032037
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

...TOMAS RE-INTENSIFIES INTO A TROPICAL STORM...NEW WARNINGS AND
WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 74.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
HAITI.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
BARAHONA WESTWARD.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...
LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS
WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH HAITI ON FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH AS THE CENTER NEARS HAITI.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY LATE THURSDAY...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN